Author Topic: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'  (Read 3684 times)

Harold Tuttle

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BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« on: April 26, 2011, 11:08:59 AM »
http://www.engadget.com/2011/04/26/ce-oh-no-he-didnt-bmw-exec-says-electric-vehicles-wont-work/

According to O'Donnell's undoubtedly robust calculations, EVs won't work for "at least 90-percent" of the human population, at current battery ranges. The situation is so dire, in fact, that the US government shouldn't even bother wasting its $7,500 tax credits on frivolous things like innovation, national security and clean air.


I wonder if his calculations take in the missing road taxes that are applied to Gasoline sales that EV seem to shirk?
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HankB

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2011, 11:11:50 AM »
. . . I wonder if his calculations take in the missing road taxes that are applied to Gasoline sales that EV seem to shirk?
I just read a newspaper story that some local/state governments are discussing a special "electric vehicle tax" to make up for gas tax losses . . . something I predicted DECADES ago when the topic of EVs came up in a college class.
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #2 on: April 26, 2011, 11:17:12 AM »
HT, it sounds like you disagree with the BMW exec.  Why is that?

I 100% agree with him.

Batteries are energy-inefficient and too slow to recharge for road trips greater than the range of 1 charge.  High-speed charging introduces stringent voltage regulation issues and the danger of electrical fire.

Hank:  aside from the EV tax, I also expect to see an INCREASE in the excise tax percentage since fuel economy is rising on average.
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Boomhauer

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #3 on: April 26, 2011, 11:19:28 AM »
Quote
EVs won't work for "at least 90-percent" of the human population, at current battery ranges

No *expletive deleted*...

Comrade Toor needs to STFU.

Quote
I just read a newspaper story that some local/state governments are discussing a special "electric vehicle tax" to make up for gas tax losses . . . something I predicted DECADES ago when the topic of EVs came up in a college class.

They also want to attach GPS trackers to everybody's cars and bill you by miles driven because fuel efficient vehicle owners aren't paying their fair share in taxes...we've had threads on this in the past...

Quote
"I believe in a free economy. I think we should abolish all tax credits. What they are doing is putting a bet on technology, which is not appropriate. As a taxpayer, I am not sure this is the right way to go."

Totally, 100% agree.


What we need in the US is European style, fuel efficient, small diesels would definitely be the way to go, but our government is totally against them and prefers that you burn more fuel to generate "less" emissions. I don't see how that logic works. Oh wait, this is the government that thinks you save money by spending money. Ah, makes perfect sense, now.





« Last Edit: April 26, 2011, 11:24:26 AM by Avenger29 »
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Harold Tuttle

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #4 on: April 26, 2011, 11:31:19 AM »
i want my atomic powered car

Maybe EVs would "work" if electricity was "too cheap to meter"

"Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter... It is not too much to expect that our children will know of great periodic regional famines in the world only as matters of history, will travel effortlessly over the seas and under them and through the air with a minimum of danger and at great speeds, and will experience a lifespan far longer than ours, as disease yields and man comes to understand what causes him to age."
« Last Edit: April 26, 2011, 11:46:24 AM by Harold Tuttle »
"The true mad scientist does not make public appearances! He does not wear the "Hello, my name is.." badge!
He strikes from below like a viper or on high like a penny dropped from the tallest building around!
He only has one purpose--Do bad things to good people! Mit science! What good is science if no one gets hurt?!"

zxcvbob

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #5 on: April 26, 2011, 11:41:58 AM »
My idea for a hybrid vehicle would have a *tiny* underpowered diesel engine driving one axle for cruising and to keep the batteries topped up.  20 to 30 HP is probably enough for a midsized car.  Then a series-wound DC motor on the other axle (or maybe 2; one on each hub and eliminate the differential) for acceleration and regenerative braking.  You wouldn't need so much battery that way either.

But the EPA hates small diesels, so it would never work.
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MillCreek

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #6 on: April 26, 2011, 12:06:04 PM »
I still want my jetpack with 60 minutes of flying time.
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #7 on: April 26, 2011, 12:07:04 PM »
Can you guys imagine the freakin' power draw that an electric "fill station" would have?

You drive from your home in suburbia, 25 miles outside of Big City, USA... to a place about 300 miles away in corn/wheat land and pull in to the local service station along the interstate.

That service station would have to have either:

1.  Bigazz power lines from the power company that dwarf anything it currently gets... I'd expect simultaneous high-speed charging of vehicle batteries for 12 vehicles to draw well over 1000 amps; or
2.  A small-scale nuclear reactor like a Toshiba 4S, buried on-site.


1000 amps at 220vAC is 220,000 watts.

A Toshiba 4S is described as a 10 megawatt reactor, but I don't know the voltage so I don't know the amperage output of it.


The Chevy Volt supposedly has a battery pack capacity of 16.0kWh (http://gm-volt.com/2007/08/29/latest-chevy-volt-battery-pack-and-generator-details-and-clarifications/) at a theoretical 100% charge, and a typical charge of around 12.8kWh.  The battery becomes useless around 4.8kWh of remaining charge, so you get about 8000 watt-hours out of the battery pack in 40 miles of driving.  The battery pack is 300 volt.  8000 watts on a 300 volt system is 26.66 amps.

If you want to recharge 26.66 amps (from a mere 40 miles of driving), in a 10 minute fill-up operation, you need to deposit 26.66 amps into the battery.  26.66 amps in 10 minutes is 160 amp-hours on a single circuit.  A dozen such circuits all chewing juice from a power source would require just shy of 2000 amps.

And that's just for 40 miles of driving.

Make it a 300 mile consumption (40 miles uses 26.66 amps, so each mile uses 0.6665 amps and 300 miles results in about 200 amps consumed).  Recharge 200 amps in a battery in 10 minutes.  That's a charge rate of 1200 amp-hours on a single circuit.

A dozen charge stations designed to recharge an EV car with 300 mile ranges each, will consume nearly 15,000 amps.

15,000 amps at 220vAC is 3,300,000 watts.

3 megawatts.

To operate a fill station.
"But whether the Constitution really be one thing, or another, this much is certain - that it has either authorized such a government as we have had, or has been powerless to prevent it. In either case, it is unfit to exist."
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lee n. field

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #8 on: April 26, 2011, 12:16:29 PM »

"Our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter... It is not too much to expect that our children will know of great periodic regional famines in the world only as matters of history, will travel effortlessly over the seas and under them and through the air with a minimum of danger and at great speeds, and will experience a lifespan far longer than ours, as disease yields and man comes to understand what causes him to age."

Which sound like Olaf Stapledon's description of the civilization of the Fifth Men, in Last and First men[/url].
In thy presence is fulness of joy.
At thy right hand pleasures for evermore.

brimic

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #9 on: April 26, 2011, 12:43:11 PM »
Quote
3 megawatts.

To operate a fill station.

How much extra power generation for a medium sized city with a small fraction of vehicles being of this type- lets say 10,000 EVs? What about 100,000 EVs? I realize that they can be charged more slowly, drawing less current than the filing station scenario, but a lot of cities in the US are already are a hot day away from a brownout the way it is.

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AZRedhawk44

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #10 on: April 26, 2011, 01:05:37 PM »
brimic, the one benefit I could see to having each local fill station in a city be set up with a 10MW reactor would be increased capacity to the power grid.

How many fill stations are in a city of a million people?  Perhaps 500 or so?

That would be 5 gigawatts of power generation added to a metro area.  Our big nuke reactor here, Palo Verde, only generates about 3 gigawatts.
"But whether the Constitution really be one thing, or another, this much is certain - that it has either authorized such a government as we have had, or has been powerless to prevent it. In either case, it is unfit to exist."
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I reject your authoritah!

Tuco

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #11 on: April 26, 2011, 01:16:08 PM »
I'll take one with a hole in the top, for my pet giraffe.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bBpDNRP5qQ
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birdman

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #12 on: April 26, 2011, 03:18:07 PM »
brimic, the one benefit I could see to having each local fill station in a city be set up with a 10MW reactor would be increased capacity to the power grid.

How many fill stations are in a city of a million people?  Perhaps 500 or so?

That would be 5 gigawatts of power generation added to a metro area.  Our big nuke reactor here, Palo Verde, only generates about 3 gigawatts.

There is a reason why there is a resurgence in efforts to build small, inherently safe reactors (btw, the tidbits design sucks, and don't even get me started on hyperion)--distributed power generation.

However, for electric cars, the fast charge issue is a tough nut to crack.  Even the current high power nano phosphate based lithium ion batteries are limited to 5-10C charge rates (6-12min).  While there are technologies being developed that could push it to 20-50C (what would be needed for a true "gas station charge" the issue then become heat dissipation in the battery pack.  Due to internal resistance issues, charging 10kwhr of battery capacity in 3 minutes (200kW) would result in the generation of nearly 25-50kW of waste heat in the pack...assuming typical liquid cooling, that would require a radiator twice as large as a typical sportscar, or result in the boiling of over a gallon of water!
What I See in the future, should the electric vehicle become more commonplace, is the following:
1. Series hybrid diesel vehicles (small diesel with very high pressure turbocharging at low revs with a modified miller cycle) for "unlimited range, but "plug in hybrid" size (e.g. Volt/leaf) battery packs with liquid cooling and advanced nano phosphate battery technology
2. Charging stations using a custom fast charge connector at 300V/600A with on-connector quick-disconnect coolant lines for high flow chilled liquid cooling during charging (with the above battery technology, a lifetime with proper design of 500-1000 fast charge cycles should be possible, or a battery lifetime of 50-100k miles if you only use that method)
3. Distributed power generation stations with local storage for peaking (e.g. Flywheel) at "gas stations".  There are ~120,000 gas stations in the US, or roughly one for every 1500 homes.  In the US approx. 40 billion vehicle-miles are driven every year, assuming an all-electric range of 50 miles, and half of all miles using quick-charge, and all of those charges being used in a 12-hour period, the average station would need to charge 1-2 vehicles per hour, or about 10-20kW on average.  Assuming a "worst case" station load of 50 cars in a single hour, and a total of 200 in a day, a local storage of 1000kWhr (within the range of medium size flywheel storage), and an average load of 100-200kW would be reasonable.  If each station had an efficient, combined cycle, 500kW class micro turbine, the surplus electricity from those 120,000 stations would be (on average) 42Gw, or enough to power about 20 million homes (10% of the residential load in the US)...since people are either at home/work, or driving, this would also allow for significant load leveling and more steady state performance.  The resulting overall efficiency would be 1.5-2x conventional hybrids from a co2 perspective (or more, depending on turbine fuel, as their efficiency is 1.5-2x a typical engine, and natural gas results in far less co2 than the heavier hydrocarbons).

So that is an interesting approach.  HOWEVER, my preferred approach is to use synthetic hydrocarbon (methanol and/or Dimethylether, which replace gasoline and diesel, respectively) generation (which can be done at high efficiency from water and atmospheric CO2) at large facilities localized at nuclear power plants.  This way all of the biggest problems with alternative transportation fuels are eliminated.
1. The infrastructure stays virtually the same (pipelines, trucks, gas stations)
2. Minimal to no vehicle modifications are required
3. Carbon-neutral
4. Oil independent!
5. Allows for off-peak use of base-load capacity (makes the power plants more efficient)
6. Allows for economies of scale
With this method, the capital cost required to transition the infrastructure (which we have trillions invested in already) and vehicles (again, more trillions in already sunk costs) is minimal, the technologies are already in hand, and the investment strategy is well defined--beginning with current power generation facilities, add fuel generation equipment, then start building new nuclear plants until over a decade or three, the entire system is transitioned.  Btw, even at current huge installed costs for nuke plants, ($5-10/watt), transition of the entire Petroleum usage of the US (21 million bbl/day) to synthetic fuels in this fashion would require the installation of ~2TW of new plants ($10-20trillion, or about $500billion per year amortized costs).  While that seems like a lot, that means the equivalent "oil" price for profitable break-even is $99/bbl (assuming 60% efficiency on the conversion, and a 1.5:1 cost ratio of total to amortized capital cost).

Since oil is already above this, and likely to stay there, doesn't a truly long-term, carbon neutral, all domestic (note, all of that $500b/yr is now domestic jobs and investment) alternative that uses all the existing infrastructure sound good?  I mean, reversal of the trade deficit (switching $300 billion out of the import column, and replacing it with $200 billion of oil EXPORTS!), elimination of the co2 produced from transportation, and an overall reduction in fuel and energy costs seems like an obvious choice doesn't it?

Now, why aren't we going down that path?

Tallpine

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #13 on: April 26, 2011, 03:35:49 PM »
Quote
Now, why aren't we going down that path?

OMG!  Nook-you-larrrrrrr!   :O
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grampster

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Re: BMW exec says electric vehicles 'won't work,'
« Reply #14 on: April 26, 2011, 04:57:59 PM »
All the rich fat cats of the progressive persuasion are heavily invested (that's money for those of you in Jugville)  in the electrical fantasy.  The emerging facts are scaring the crap out of them.  Recently the Obamanation has been trampling on the hydrogen fueled vehicles by taking away tax incentives etc. and pouring them into electric.

Within 10 years or maybe sooner the electric vehicle crashes into oblivion.
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