Correlating gun ownership and homicide rates

[drewtam]

I expect to see the standard arguments as the gun control "debate" (read: arguing and ranting) grinds forward. One of those is that US homicide rates are higher than countries with strict laws. If one looks at Western Europe as a proxy for "strict control"; it becomes clear that the US rate is 3-4x higher. (see the link)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_intentional_homicide_rate


I think there are 3 main counter arguments to this line of thought that spring readily to my mind:

The weakest, from my perspective, is "correlation doesn't equal causation". Having available guns isn't the cause of homicides, there are other factors which makes it worse in the US. Although logically true and will work with some people, it lacks conclusive punch and emotional power.


The next, stronger, argument is that "the US is not a monolithic block". Separating out homicide rates for whites, blacks, asians, and hispanics we find that each group has vastly different homicide rates within the US. Interestingly, each racial group very weakly correlates with regions of the world. Blacks homicide rates are slightly below typical sub-saharan African rates, hispanic rates are well below central and south america, whites and asians are about on par with europe and east asia. But looking into the detail of white @ 1.8/100k it is still elevated from western and northern europe @  1.0-1.5/100k (see next link)
http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6001a14.htm
[the total rate according the CDC does not match wikipedias rate taken from the UN report. To compare whites to europe across these 2 different reports, I factored the numbers so the total rates would match].
The weakness of this line of counter argument is that it cedes gun control is ok if it works. It argues within the rules set by the illiberal. Its also easy to get bogged down in other differences such as drug and alcohol use which plays a big part in US homicides (see previous argument).


But the strongest argument, to me, is that "indoor cats also live longer than outdoor cats". Living a limited and castrated life for the sake of safety spits on freedom and is not worth the living. Wearing a seat belt or helmet is one thing, but refusing to leave the house or refusing to ride in a car just because of the risk is a whole level different. It is phobia sucking life out of living.

[SteveS]

The other thing to note is that most countries either see a rise in crime or no change in crime when gun control is implemented.  If it was some big cure, then it doesn't seem to really help at all. 

[Jamisjockey]

How many other countries have as many tightly packed urban population centers as we do?

[Ron]

Pointing out who is actually doing the murdering generally doesn't go over very well.

Somehow pointing out the actual facts gets folks nervous about racial issues.

[Monkeyleg]

How many countries have populations as diverse as ours? Most EU countries are fairly homogenous. Where they are not (Muslims immigrating to France, for example), there's problems. If anything, we probably have less violence due to ethnic and religious diversity than other countries.

Any equations should factor the drug trade. Take drugs out of the homicide numbers here in the US, and our homicide rates fall far behind other countries.

We should also look at the types of governments western nations have had since 1792. We've remained a constitutional republic. In that same time, various EU countries have been have alternated between monarchies (Britain, France), dictatorships (Germany, Italy, Spain, France), democracies (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, etc), socialist oligarchies (just about all of the EU), etc. I'd venture to say that the Second Amendment has had a fair amount to do with our government not devolving into something worse.

[Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas]

Something seems wrong when Somalia has the same homicide rate as Canada.

[RoadKingLarry]

Something seems wrong when Somalia has the same homicide rate as Canada.

That would be cause for a red flag if your agenda wasn't disarming the general population. 

[TommyGunn]

I've also read that if you examine the American homicide rates and factor out inner city gang violence and drug related violence (often the same thing) then the American murder rates start to look very much like the rates found in many european countries.
I don't find that very hard to believe, myself.

[drewtam]

How many other countries have as many tightly packed urban population centers as we do?

I would say most of Europe and east Asia is more packed. Europe is a lot like our east coast states; in terms of multiple large and medium urban cities within a few hours of each other. China, Japan, and India are certainly way more packed. Australia and NZ much more sparse. Japan feels like one giant city to me, this is due to the small size compounded by very rural mountains on the interior. Everything is packed on the coast in one long extended city.

[longeyes]

Pointing out who is actually doing the murdering generally doesn't go over very well.

Somehow pointing out the actual facts gets folks nervous about racial issues.

Only a matter of time before some inconvenient truths rise into the "national conversation."   Disarming the law-abiding is obviously no solution to the real problem, which is that there is Danger Out There, Will Robinson. 

Why are we talking about "gun owners" when many of the perps of gun violence are not even "owners?" 

All of this is outside the pale of reason at this point. 

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

another statistical oddity
add homicide and suicide rates together and they match from country to country.

[drewtam]

another statistical oddity
add homicide and suicide rates together and they match from country to country.

That is interesting, you got a link to the data set you are using?

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

not seen it in 20 years but you can do an easy diy with japan  then some of the scandanavian countries


i found this but lots of chaff to wheat
http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/34/4/837.full

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/japan/100304/murder-japan
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_Japan


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suicide_in_the_United_States
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crime_in_the_United_States

[Hawkmoon]

How many other countries have as many tightly packed urban population centers as we do?

What other countries don't?

Example: Chile. Total population around 13 million (an entire country, about the population of New York City). Population of Santiago, the capital, is over 6  million. A full half of the country's population lives in Santiago. They don't need more than one.

Try India -- New Delhi, or Mumbai.

[Matthew Carberry]

Historical data is useful here.  

As I recall, if you go back as far as the decent records allow, which will be prior to most major gun control actions by various "developed" countries (most were put in place in the first decades of the 20th century as a response to anarchist and socialist violence, usually blamed on immigrants strangely enough) you see that for the most part the US has -always- had a noticeably higher overall homicide rate than the comparative countries.

If they put in tighter and tighter laws, and we didn't, and yet the ratio remained the same or decreased (as in we got better or them worse or both), that indicates their laws were not meaningfully effective vis a vis our lack of such laws.

Which is what the actual current meta-analysis of gun control laws in those countries and ours shows.

Sociologically, the folks who couldn't "go along to get along" either were sent here or came here of their own accord.  Homogenous cultures hammer the nail that sticks out, in the case of the US, those nails were removed and came here.  In addition we have always welcomed waves of immigrants, who went through the process of assimilation, which includes stretches of poverty and anomie which do have some relation to crime.  Particularly as they operated at the fringes of the established economy. Most immigrant groups age out of that as they assimilate.


Black America, which did face cultural barriers to assimilation many immigrant groups avoided, also unfortunately had the "blessing" of having the full weight of the good intentions of Progressives brought to bear on them.  Which of course is a curse.