A mathematical model of gun control

[MillCreek]

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0071606

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2013-07/mathematical-model-gun-control-we-can-finally-argue-over-data

Interesting application of modeling, and I await further development of the model with more and accurate data. 

From the conclusion of the PLOS article:

This paper provides the first mathematical formulation to analyze the tradeoff in the relationship between legal gun availability and the rate of firearm-induced death: while more wide-spread legal gun availability can increase the number of gun-mediated attacks and thus the firearm-induced death rate, gun ownership might also protect potential victims when attacked by an armed offender, and thus reduce the firearm-induced death rate

and

The model suggests that the rate of firearm-induced homicides can be minimized either by a ban of private firearm possession, or by the legal availability of guns for everyone, depending on the parameter values.

So either no guns for anyone or guns for everyone may lower the rate of homicides by firearm.  Kind of a black and white choice, that.

[HankB]

I wonder if they'll properly distinguish between good guys who are shot by criminals, and bad guys who are shot by their intended victims . . . or just lump both into the category of "firearm deaths."

[TechMan]

I wonder if they'll properly distinguish between good guys who are shot by criminals, and bad guys who are shot by their intended victims . . . or just lump both into the category of "firearm deaths."

I would say lump them both into the category of "firearm deaths" is what they will probably do.

[French G.]

Depending on the parameter values... We can make this here computer say whatever you want depending on how much you pay us for our "research."

[HankB]

Depending on the parameter values... We can make this here computer say whatever you want depending on how much you pay us for our "research."

And because it's done by COMPUTER, the output will be unassailable . . . just like the things you find on the Internet.

[zahc]

Lies, damn lies, statistics, and mathematical models.

[Sergeant Bob]

And because it's done by COMPUTER, the output will be unassailable . . . just like the things you find on the Internet.

Uhh, bonjour?

[MillCreek]

And of course, with more data, if the model shows a benefit to gun ownership, we will all be singing its praises. 

[Brad Johnson]

I wonder if they'll properly distinguish between good guys who are shot by criminals, and bad guys who are shot by their intended victims .

Doubtful.

Brad

[French G.]

And of course, with more data, if the model shows a benefit to gun ownership, we will all be singing its praises. 

We shouldn't. The only time that more guns, less crimes stats come in handy is when arguing with an idiot. Which should be skipped anyway. Lean on studies and such to justify your right and you tend to forget the whole pre-dating current government inalienable right thing.