Mysterious World Series gambler, or proof of a time traveler!!

[freakazoid]

https://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2017/11/1/16592488/world-series-gambler-14-million-game-7-winning-every-game-dodgers-astros

Apparently someone has been going around betting on all the current World Series games, and winning. Currently up to 14 million in winnings. Proof of a Biff Tannen, you decide. 

[230RN]

Since there are no faces to read as when "sittin' at the table," y' gotta play the mechanics:

Assuming equal probability of either team winning any particular game... they're equally good, in other words (that's how each of them got to the world series, after all)...

... then the probability of either team winning is P=0.5 for each of them.

For six games, the probability of guessing right for six games in a row is...

0.5⁶ = 0.015625, is the probability of "hitting" six wins in a row just by guessing randomly.  64 to 1 odds.  But it's not impossible.

Probably figured he could afford to lose the original bet amount and just let it ride.

I'm chicken.  I would have just bet half my winnings from the previous guesses.

[KD5NRH]

I just shuffled a deck of cards.  Given the insanely low probability of any of the possible arrangements of 52 cards, I'm forced to conclude that the deck ceased to exist rather than fall into any of those arrangements.

[230RN]

^
If I remember right, that's 52!<this is a factorial symbol.


52! = 8.0658175170943878571660636856404e+67 possible combinations in a deck of 52 cards.

For a probability for any given arrangement to occur of:

P = 1.2397999308571485923950341988946e-68
(P = 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000012398)

You're right! <not a factorial symbol
  Since the probability of any combination is so vanishingly small, the deck must vanish! <not a factorial symbol

Terry

REF:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Factorial

[Fly320s]

I just shuffled a deck of cards.  Given the insanely low probability of any of the possible arrangements of 52 cards, I'm forced to conclude that the deck ceased to exist rather than fall into any of those arrangements.

Hmmm... that gives me an idea for a spaceship engine.  I think I will call it the Improbability Drive.

[KD5NRH]

52! = 8.0658175170943878571660636856404e+67 possible combinations in a deck of 52 cards.

And only about 10⁷⁸ atoms in the universe.

If you rearranged a 52 card deck once per second, without repeating any arrangement, it would take about 2.5x10⁶⁰ years to go through them all.  If every human shuffled once per second for 500 years, we'd only have 9x10¹⁹ combinations, so odds are - quite overwhelmingly - every time you properly shuffle a deck, you're creating a totally new and unique pattern of cards.

[230RN]

...

If you rearranged a 52 card deck once per second, without repeating any arrangement it would take about 2.5x10⁶⁰ years to go through them all.

...

But the bolded clause is unneccesary.  The probability of repeating an arrangement is

(1.239799930857148592395034198894e-68)², or
1.5371038685533904304366275737176e-136.

And even if it did happen, it would only take an extra second in that 2.5x10⁶⁰ years, a negligible error of only 1.2683916793505834601725012683917^-1066 percent.

Terry

[dogmush]

But the bolded clause is unneccesary.  The probability of repeating an arrangement is

(1.239799930857148592395034198894e-68)², or
1.5371038685533904304366275737176e-136.

And even if it did happen, it would only take an extra second in that 2.5x10⁶⁰ years, a negligible error of only 1.2683916793505834601725012683917^-1066 percent.

Terry

Only at the beginning.

As the shuffling continues the odds of getting duplicate arraignments climb.  Towards the end the odds of getting the last couple unique arraignments (without cheating) are so low that you need to start worrying about the heat-death of the universe interrupting your experiment.

[freakazoid]

And only about 10⁷⁸ atoms in the universe.

If you rearranged a 52 card deck once per second, without repeating any arrangement, it would take about 2.5x10⁶⁰ years to go through them all.  If every human shuffled once per second for 500 years, we'd only have 9x10¹⁹ combinations, so odds are - quite overwhelmingly - every time you properly shuffle a deck, you're creating a totally new and unique pattern of cards.

That's, quite fascinating.

[AmbulanceDriver]

I love how we go from gambling to heat death of the universe in less than one page.   

[Scout26]

I love how we go from gambling to heat death of the universe in less than one page.   

I'll take that bet on the heat death of the Universe...

[Hawkmoon]

I love how we go from gambling to heat death of the universe in less than one page.   

APS represents a unique assemblage of special talents.