Anything is possible, and a good tactician considers all the possibilities. Some of these possibilities can be dismissed out of hand, but they should be included in the initial assessment.
MY PATTON PARABLE ON PARANOIA
Paranoia Pays --An allegory from history.
"Hey, I think the Germans are massing a bunch of troops and tanks on the east side of the line."
"Ah, you're crazy, George. The Germans are thoroughly beaten."
"Well, I'm going to keep my tanks ready to go anyhow. Nyah-nyah."
16 December 1944: Germans break over the line, starting the Battle of the Bulge.
Headline, 26 December 1944: "General Patton relieves Allies at Bastogne"
Das Ende
(Now cut it out, you guys... I had a lot of fun writing this.)
Terry, 230RN