Homicide deaths among adult cohabitants of handgun owners

[MillCreek]

https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M21-3762

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/apr/07/guns-handguns-safety-homicide-killing-study

From the journal article:

Conclusion:
Living with a handgun owner is associated with substantially elevated risk for dying by homicide. Women are disproportionately affected.

[Boomhauer]

I smell a load of *expletive deleted*it.

[WLJ]

More often than not with "studies" the devil is in what they're leaving out.

[Nick1911]

Well, it could be true.  First pass at the abstract looks reasonable, but the full content isn't available to us plebs.

It does give me pause that of the 17,569,096 Californians in the cohort, 2293 died of homicide in a 12 year period.  13 per 100,000.  Okay, sure.

The California homicide rate is 4.5 per 100,000 per year. [1]. 
Over a 12 year period, that should work out to 54 per 100,000 over the 12 year period.
100000 - ((100000-4.5)/100000)^12 *100000)

So, why did so few people in their cohort die due to homicide?

[Boomhauer]

More often than not with "studies" the devil is in what they're leaving out.

Well honesty doesn’t grow the best funding when you’re grant farming ya know

[Pb]

Well, it could be true.  First pass at the abstract looks reasonable, but the full content isn't available to us plebs.

It does give me pause that of the 17,569,096 Californians in the cohort, 2293 died of homicide in a 12 year period.  13 per 100,000.  Okay, sure.

The California homicide rate is 4.5 per 100,000 per year. [1]. 
Over a 12 year period, that should work out to 54 per 100,000 over the 12 year period.
100000 - ((100000-4.5)/100000)^12 *100000)

So, why did so few people in their cohort die due to homicide?

Nice catch....   

[cordex]

I wonder if there are any other factors which could be considered which would much more reliably predict an increased chance of death by homicide or likelihood of committing homicide.

[Nick1911]

I wonder if there are any other factors which could be considered which would much more reliably predict an increased chance of death by homicide or likelihood of committing homicide.

There are a number of statistical trends
https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/Homicide%20In%20CA%202020.pdf

[cordex]

There are a number of statistical trends
https://data-openjustice.doj.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2021-06/Homicide%20In%20CA%202020.pdf

Who could have possibly predicted that?

Let's see what Nick's study shows!

82.5 percent of homicide victims were male and 17.5 percent were female. (Table 5)

Ironically, if you cut your penis off in an attempt to reduce the male risk factor for being a homicide victim your risk of dying at the hands of a guy actually goes up.

Or if we were going to interpret this in the way MillCreek's article does, we might phrase it: "Living with a vagina owner is associated with substantially elevated risk for dying by homicide. Men are disproportionately affected."

Of the homicides where the victim’s race/ethnicity was identified, 45.3 percent of victims were Hispanic, 30.7 percent were black, 16.4 percent were white, and 7.5 percent were of other race/ethnic groups. (Table 6)

Wait just a minute, those percentages don't seem to reflect the underlying population ...

[Nick1911]

The breakdown of people arrested for homicide don't reflect the underlying population either.  I'm sure that's because the police are racist, or something.

[Pb]

I wonder if there are any other factors which could be considered which would much more reliably predict an increased chance of death by homicide or likelihood of committing homicide.

Race (black), age (teenage-young adult) and sex (male) are the biggest factors.

[Pb]

The study in the OP didn't even consider if the handgun owned was used in the crime.

So if you own a handgun, and are murdered by someone else with a different handgun, it is counted as if your own gun killed you.