Will China Invade Taiwan?

[WLJ]

Should give Taiwan a warm and fuzzy feeling

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Saturday the United States does not support the independence of Taiwan, after Taiwanese voters rebuffed China and gave the ruling party a third presidential term.

Earlier in the day, the Taiwanese ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential candidate Lai Ching-te came to power, strongly rejecting Chinese pressure to spurn him, and pledged both to stand up to Beijing and seek talks.

"We do not support independence..." Biden said, when asked for reaction to Saturday's elections.

I kind of know what he meant but sometimes just shut up

U.S. does not support Taiwan independence, Biden says
https://www.reuters.com/world/biden-us-does-not-support-taiwan-independence-2024-01-13/

[AZRedhawk44]

Yep. Put me in charge and if forced to have an international response every SSGN, SSN, CG, and DDG we have empties their tomahawk magazines on night one. B-52s likewise. B-2s, space weapons whatever. If it floats or flies it dies. All the headquarters, all the air defenses. Send word that round two is nuclear. No one effing around limited response.

Just target the Three Gorges dam on the Yang Tze River.  That's supposedly Taiwan's default response if invaded with no hope of victory.  It'll kill tens of millions of civilians downstream, to say nothing of the unparalleled destruction it will wreak on China's industrial capacity.  Hundreds or even thousands of factories destroyed.

[HankB]

Let's see - Biden signaled that he wasn't much concerned if Russia staged a "minor incursion" into Ukraine . . . which was followed by a major invasion.

Biden took Hamas off the terror watch list and started sending $$$ to Gaza . . . and Hamas attacked Israel.

Now he's saying he doesn't favor Taiwan independence . . . hmmm, I wonder what signal Xi will think he's sending?

Senility/stupidity doesn't explain Biden's actions any more, they're too consistently wrong for that.

[dogmush]

Just target the Three Gorges dam on the Yang Tze River.  That's supposedly Taiwan's default response if invaded with no hope of victory.  It'll kill tens of millions of civilians downstream, to say nothing of the unparalleled destruction it will wreak on China's industrial capacity.  Hundreds or even thousands of factories destroyed.

Man, if you want to see the mouth breathers scream "War Crimes!" take out that damn and drown a couple million peasants.

[HankB]

Man, if you want to see the mouth breathers scream "War Crimes!" take out that damn and drown a couple million peasants.

They'll do that if Taiwan puts up any fight at all against their ChiCom buddies.

[MechAg94]

I saw this the other day.  There are some qualifiers, but it is interesting.

China's military purge: Are Chinese missiles filled with water?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYyBqnV2h9s


this also popped up on a search.
US Intel Shows Flawed China Missiles Led Xi to Purge Army
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kKnVgcqR2Ac

[WLJ]

Not saying some of the above isn't true but such talk always reminds me of the way the US mil talked about the Japanese mil before the war and in not a good way.
Then we started getting our ass handed to us and found out the hard way their night fighting was way beyond ours, their torpedoes actually worked and were far in advance of our own, their pilots were not only flying AC that were in many way more advance than ours but they were far better trained. Even saw stuff about how they would make for poor pilots because their eyesight is poor, oh wait!. And not to mention their carriers ops was more advance, while we operated carriers in groups of 1 or 2 in the early war they routinely operated carriers in groups of 4 or even 6 and far more capable of coordinating massive strikes. It took us two to three years of hard learning to match that.

Just saying such above talk worriers me in that we'll let our guard down and I hate in putting much stock in much of the info we from the media about their mil.

[AZRedhawk44]

Let's see - Biden signaled that he wasn't much concerned if Russia staged a "minor incursion" into Ukraine . . . which was followed by a major invasion.

Biden took Hamas off the terror watch list and started sending $$$ to Gaza . . . and Hamas attacked Israel.

Now he's saying he doesn't favor Taiwan independence . . . hmmm, I wonder what signal Xi will think he's sending?

Senility/stupidity doesn't explain Biden's actions any more, they're too consistently wrong for that.

That's official US policy and has been for decades.  The United States does not acknowledge Taiwan as an independent nation.  The US has a treaty to defend Taiwan from invasion from the mainland CCP.  Effectively, the US acknowledges the KMT as the preferred government of a united China.  At least at the time of the treaty's creation.

[HankB]

Not saying some of the above isn't true but such talk always reminds me of the way the US mil talked about the Japanese mil before the war and in not a good way.
Then we started getting our ass handed to us and found out the hard way their night fighting was way beyond ours, their torpedoes actually worked and were far in advance of our own, their pilots were not only flying AC that were in many way more advance than ours but they were far better trained. Even saw stuff about how they would make for poor pilots because their eyesight is poor, oh wait!. And not to mention their carriers ops was more advance, while we operated carriers in groups of 1 or 2 in the early war they routinely operated carriers in groups of 4 or even 6 and far more capable of coordinating massive strikes. It took us two to three years of hard learning to match that.

Just saying such above talk worriers me in that we'll let our guard down and I hate in putting much stock in much of the info we from the media about their mil.

Are you kidding? The ChiCom Navy trembles at the awesome might of our Littoral Combat Ships! (Sometimes it's hard to distinguish Chinese trembling in fear from Chinese trembling in laughter - it's a cultural thing.)

On the other hand, at a recent Tank Biathlon in Russia, a road wheel simply fell off one of the Chicom tank entries . . . so we're not the only ones with problems in the military.

[WLJ]

Instead Of Traditional Warfare, Chinese Military Will Now Be Trained To Shout Wrong Pronouns At American Troops
https://babylonbee.com/news/instead-of-traditional-warfare-chinese-military-will-now-be-trained-to-shout-wrong-pronouns-at-american-troops

[RocketMan]

Despite these supposed problems, I believe the Chinese could still shove us back into our part of the eastern Pacific should we come to blows.

[dogmush]

The PLA and the PLAN have severely compromised and/or untested logistics capabilities on top of the questionable performance of their frontline equipment.  Recent conflicts have shown that numbers alone are not sufficient to overcome a lack of parts, food, and ammo in the face of high tier NATO equipped militaries.

[HankB]

Despite these supposed problems, I believe the Chinese could still shove us back into our part of the eastern Pacific should we come to blows.

I think there's an excellent chance they've compromised our Commander In Chief to a greater or lesser degree, who in turn has been degrading command staff. I think this will result in command indecisiveness that SEVERELY compromises our warfighting capability. (Note the difficulty we had in shooting down a lousy Chinese balloon - not the mechanics of it, but the top-down mismanagement.)

[MechAg94]

The PLA and the PLAN have severely compromised and/or untested logistics capabilities on top of the questionable performance of their frontline equipment.  Recent conflicts have shown that numbers alone are not sufficient to overcome a lack of parts, food, and ammo in the face of high tier NATO equipped militaries.

I think that is close to where I stand.  Russia showed that their corruption severely compromised their military depth and strength.  Their frontline guys were well equipped, but the stockpiles of supplies and ammo ran out a lot faster than anyone expected.  China might be a little better, but they have to cross a lot of ocean to get to their targets.  That adds a whole lot more issues.  And China has more trade vulnerabilities if they start a war.

China has a big navy, but I think most of their ships are not capable of operating outside the South China sea.  Many have a range limit of 1000 miles from what I hear.  I figure they have the ability to hit anyone within a short range of China, but I doubt they could extend their power beyond that first island chain that includes the Philippines and Taiwan. 

[Ben]

China has a big navy, but I think most of their ships are not capable of operating outside the South China sea.  Many have a range limit of 1000 miles from what I hear.  I figure they have the ability to hit anyone within a short range of China, but I doubt they could extend their power beyond that first island chain that includes the Philippines and Taiwan.

Discussions here have changed my mind regarding China's blue water capabilities (as in, I now agree they are less of a threat than I thought). I do still believe they would be a force to be reckoned with within sight of China's shores. They have seemed to focus on homeland (or homewater) defense in both strategy and the fleet their shipyards are pumping out, as well as coastal land defense.

[dogmush]

There are 25 fast attack boats assigned to COMSUBPAC.

While we don't know how the Seawolf's will do in the real world yet we have a fair amount of data on how the 688 and 688i's do against the level of tech in the PLAN's Type 93's, and I would bet a fair bit of money we spend a lot of time trying to figure out what the PLAN's ASW detection thresholds are.

I wouldn't bet the farm that the PLAN will survive in a meaningful fashion very long after hostilities start.  Certainly once they get off the South China Shelf and into a thousand feet of water or more.

[MechAg94]

Discussions here have changed my mind regarding China's blue water capabilities (as in, I now agree they are less of a threat than I thought). I do still believe they would be a force to be reckoned with within sight of China's shores. They have seemed to focus on homeland (or homewater) defense in both strategy and the fleet their shipyards are pumping out, as well as coastal land defense.

I agree they wouldn't be a push over.  If it things went full out (non-nuclear), I am sure we would lose some ships.  They have enough subs to be dangerous and enough anti-ship missiles to be a severe threat. 

[Opportunity]

Sorry for interfering in your conversation, just a small clarifying question: why are the Americans discussing with such interest a territory that is almost 8 thousand miles away from them? The picture is just to demonstrate the distance, sorry...

[cordex]

Sorry for interfering in your conversation, just a small clarifying question: why are the Americans discussing with such interest a territory that is almost 8 thousand miles away from them? The picture is just to demonstrate the distance, sorry...

Probably for much the same reason Russians have discussed with interest Venezuela, Syria, and the Central African Republic, Libya, etc.  Big countries with the ability to project power tend to have economic interests in smaller countries around the world which can unfortunately sometimes result in a military interest.

[Blakenzy]

If things heat up significantly in the Middle East and things continuing to go poorly in Ukraine, I can see how China might be interested in causing some kind of ruckus in the Pacific to make it a three front war for the US. The thing that holds China back I think is that they don't really want direct involvement in a kerfuffle, and there really aren't any proxies to use in that area, maaaybe North Korea but not really.

[dogmush]

Probably for much the same reason Russians have discussed with interest Venezuela, Syria, and the Central African Republic, Libya, etc.  Big countries with the ability to project power tend to have economic interests in smaller countries around the world which can unfortunately sometimes result in a military interest.

To be fair, it's only 5000 miles from Hawaii, and we still get a little twitchy about militarized Asian countries and Hawaii.

But the real answer is many Americans are concerned about the expansion of Chinese influence and control over critical manufacturing bases (some of which are in Taiwan), and we are concerned that an Chinese invasion of Taiwan would lead to direct military confrontation between us and China.

For these reasons we tend to keep an tensions in the area.  The same holds true of North Korea's saber rattling.

[Pb]

The USA should have never discouraged the ROC from getting nuclear weapons.

Some nuke subs might discourage an invasion.

[Jim147]

China is seeing record unemployment in the younger generation and a few other in country problems. That might be enough to make them do something if they start getting much unrest from the peasants.

[WLJ]

Just finished watching this and at the end Jon Parshall notes that when visiting many Pacific Island battle sites that he's noticed that many wartime airfields in the Pacific including Tinian and Palau are being renovated due to current political tensions 

The Invasion of Tinian with Jon Parshall-Episode 317
https://youtu.be/xEyGN1AJvEM

[MechAg94]

Why China’s Man-Made Military Islands Are a Disaster
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0JiqoILR-uY

I saw this today.  The meat of it doesn't start until 6 to 8 minutes in.  Saying the artificial islands China built around the South China sea are starting to degrade and sink for various reasons.