U.S. considers increasing pace of Iraq pullout
By Steven Lee Myers
Sunday, July 13, 2008
WASHINGTON — The Bush administration is considering the withdrawal of additional combat forces from Iraq beginning in September, according to administration and military officials, raising the prospect of a far more ambitious plan than expected only months ago.
Such a withdrawal would be a striking reversal from the nadir of the war in 2006 and 2007.
One factor in the consideration is the pressing need for additional American troops in Afghanistan, where the Taliban and other fighters have intensified their insurgency and inflicted a growing number of casualties on Afghans and American-led forces there.
More American and allied troops died in Afghanistan than in Iraq in May and June, a trend that has continued this month.
Although no decision has been made, by the time President George W. Bush leaves office on Jan. 20, at least one and as many as 3 of the 15 combat brigades now in Iraq could be withdrawn or at least scheduled for withdrawal, the officials said.
The desire to move more quickly reflects the view of many in the Pentagon who want to ease the strain on the military but also to free more troops for Afghanistan and potentially other missions.
The most optimistic course of events would still leave 120,000 to 130,000 American troops in Iraq, down from the peak of 170,000 late last year after Bush ordered what became known as the "surge" of additional forces. Any troop reductions announced in the heat of the presidential election could blur the sharp differences between the candidates, Senators John McCain and Barack Obama, over how long to stay in Iraq. But the political benefit might go more to McCain than Obama. McCain is an avid supporter of the current strategy in Iraq. Any reduction would indicate that that strategy has worked and could defuse antiwar sentiment among voters.
Even as the two candidates argue over the wisdom of the war and keeping American troops there, security in Iraq has improved vastly, as has the confidence of Iraq's government and military and police, raising the prospect of additional reductions that were barely conceivable a year ago. While officials caution that the relative calm is fragile, violence and attacks on American-led forces have dropped to the lowest levels since early 2004.
"As the Iraqi security forces get stronger and get better, then we will be able to continue drawing down our troops in the future," Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in Fort Lewis, Washington State, on Tuesday. "And I think that this transition of control and of responsibility, primary responsibility for security is a process that's already well under way and based on everything that I'm hearing will be able to continue."
General David Petraeus, the American commander in Iraq, has already begun the review of security and troop levels. He and Bush promised in April that such a review would take place. Petraeus is expected to be more cautious than some policy makers in the administration and at the Pentagon might like. The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were discussing military planning, said he was more likely to recommend a smaller reduction, but still a withdrawal.
One senior administration official cautioned that the president, who will have the final say, would be reluctant to endorse deep or rapid reductions if they jeopardized his goal of establishing a stable and democratic government in Baghdad.
Still, there is broad consensus in Washington and Baghdad that more American forces can now leave Iraq and that more are needed in Afghanistan.
"There hasn't really been any discussion of numbers, and it's definitely based on conditions on the ground," a military officer in Baghdad said. And conditions, he went on, "are a lot more favorable than in December or April or even two months ago."
Petraeus, who will step down as commander in Iraq in September, will soon take over as the commander of the United States Central Command. In that position, he will oversee American forces and operations throughout the Middle East and Central and South Asia, including the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Senate confirmed him and his replacement as commander in Iraq, Lieutenant General Raymond Odierno, to their new positions on Thursday.
The Pentagon has previously signaled that commanders wanted additional troops in Afghanistan — as many as 10,000 more than the roughly 32,000 there now — but with two wars seriously straining the U.S. Army and Marines in particular, officials have struggled to produce the extra forces.
A reduction of combat brigades in Iraq would free additional troops that could instead be sent to Afghanistan, though officials said that no additional forces would go until next year, when fighting is expected to intensify with the arrival of spring.
Gates has already extended the deployment of a force of 3,200 marines in southern Afghanistan by one month, essentially until winter arrives and closes many of the country's mountain passes and remote villages.
The Pentagon also announced the redeployment of the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln and its support ships from the Gulf to the Arabian Sea to provide what one official described as greater air power and surveillance for the mission in Afghanistan until next spring.
"We have clearly seen an increase in violence in Afghanistan," Gates said at Fort Lewis, discussing the carrier's redeployment. "At the same time, we've seen a reduction in violence and casualties in Iraq. And I think it's just part of our commitment to ensure that we have the resources available to be successful in Afghanistan over the long haul."
Last year Bush accepted Petraeus's recommendation to gradually withdraw the five extra combat brigades that he had ordered to Iraq. The last of those, Second Brigade, Third Infantry Division, is completing its withdrawal this month, bringing the number of combat brigades to 15 and the overall troop levels to about 140,000.
If the withdrawals continued at the same pace, roughly one every 45 days, three more brigades could leave Iraq by the end of Bush's presidency.
In April, Bush approved the general's plan to "pause" the withdrawals for 45 days, basically until mid-September, while reviewing the effect of having fewer American troops in the country. The Bush administration has been wrongly optimistic before about the future of the war in Iraq. But with major military operations in Basra, Baghdad's Sadr City neighborhood, and Mosul, violence has continued to drop, and Iraqi forces have increased their share of the fighting.
The White House declined to discuss the withdrawals now under consideration, but a spokesman, Gordon Johndroe, cautioned that while the president hoped to bring more troops home, he would await Petraeus's recommendation in September.
"For now," he said, "we will continue discussions with the Iraqis on our shared goals of a reduced U.S. troop presence."
