Author Topic: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?  (Read 5824 times)

Leatherneck

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How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« on: September 29, 2008, 02:49:30 PM »
Think what you will whether federal intervention is required RTF NOW to save the economy: I'm skeptical.

But the real question I have is: If the defeated bailout gets reincarnated as something acceptable to Congress, how do I get my money back when it turns "profitable"?

Facts:
1. Assorted politicians have been touting this as actually a potentially profitable enterprise.
2. The Constitution contains no words on how the federal government returns profits to citizens. Indeed, I think the Founders would say "WHA?"

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Gewehr98

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #1 on: September 29, 2008, 03:27:50 PM »
You are more than entitled to wonder how your tax dollars are being spent to bailout Wall Street.

I would be more than curious, however, to hear the weeping and gnashing of teeth if the Fed did nothing at all, and we were plunged into the second Depression in 100 years.  Not that we need such an event, but my understanding is that the Fed is using what they have at their disposal to prevent exactly that.  Would it be a stretch to assume everybody's FDIC protected deposits would be the next thing to vaporize?

Can you see Manedwolf selling Kanji stickers on a street corner somewhere?

JamisJockey would have to sell his body on the opposite street corner, assuming his wife would let him.

Mike Irwin would wear a sandwich board sign, saying, "Will Tech Write for Food".

ShootingStudent would be holding a cardboard sign saying, "Will Argue That the Sky's NOT Blue for Food".

etc, and so forth.

Hell, yours and my government pension wouldn't even be a sure thing, Leatherneck. 

I don't like the idea of taxpayer money rescuing/rewarding greed and incompetence, either - but it's better than either a sharp stick in the eye, or whatever it is that really scares the Fed into the current course of action.

The Inquisition can start in earnest after the train wreck is avoided. 

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Northwoods

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #2 on: September 29, 2008, 05:50:41 PM »
The Inquisition can start in earnest after the train wreck is avoided. 
See, and I don't think it's even a train wreck that's coming if the fed.gov does nothing.  There will be some pain involved, but no more than the country can handle. 

Part of the problem is that we're socializing risk if we proceed with this bailout.  As soon as the opportunity to fail is erased so will all pretense of caring about the risks vs rewards of any given enterprise (at least among those "too big to fail").  And that will screw this country harder than any Depression.

Besides, there's things the fed.gov can do without a $700billion down payment on the bailout plan.  They can do any or all of:
  • suspend capital gains taxes (talk about a flood of investment capital)
  • temporarily suspend the mark-to-market portion of the Sarbanes-Oxley act for sub-prime mortgage bonds (excellent explanation of the concept here)
  • extend FHA style insurance to the sub-prime mortgage market (if fed.gov $$ just have to be spent)

I'm sure there's other things that can be done, but those are the ones I've heard that make the most sense to me.
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Manedwolf

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2008, 05:54:35 PM »
I more agree with what Newt just said in an interview. No bailout. LEND instead. Make the money available, but it has to be paid back, and no buying of the bad loans. Only lend. Temporarily suspend mark-to-market to increase liquidity again.

And replace Paulson. I think the fact that a Goldman-Sachs representative was the only one there, with a 20 billion dollar stake, at the meeting regarding AIG shows there's a definite conflict of interest going on there. Newt was furious about that, and I can see why.


Northwoods

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2008, 06:09:35 PM »
But the real question I have is: If the defeated bailout gets reincarnated as something acceptable to Congress, how do I get my money back when it turns "profitable"?
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.  You aren't implying that the fed.gov is actually competant enough to run an agency at a profit?

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Thor

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2008, 07:01:35 PM »
You CAN'T benefit from the bail out!!!

Quote
Mark Patinkin: Bailout only for the rich

01:00 AM EDT on Tuesday, September 23, 2008

I called Washington to say Im ready to help ease the financial crisis.

We appreciate that, said Washington. What are you offering?

Id like you to bail me out.

Pardon?

As I understand it, I said, youre about to spend $700 billion giving top dollar to banks for their bad mortgages.

Thats correct.

Because if you dont, I continued, the banks will fail and cause a catastrophe.

A huge catastrophe, sir.

So I thought it would be patriotic to have the government bail me out, too. Its bad enough that Freddie, Fannie and AIG were about to fail. We cant let me get in trouble, too.

Its different. Wall Street faces unusual forces.

Actually, Main Street faces the exact same things: The collapse of real estate and the Dow means our net worth is down and our debt is up. So we can use a bailout, too.

To be frank, sir, youre not bright enough to understand what Wall Street is going through.

Which is?

The paradox of de-leveraging.

Isnt that an intentionally complex phrase to force us to trust you? And actually, I looked that up and it means government will hugely overpay to buy bad mortgage holdings so Wall Street doesnt have to take a hit by selling them at face value.

Sir . . .

Ill admit that, like Wall Street, I lived high off the housing bubble and stock market and relied on fantasy projections to tell myself my net worth would forever go up. But theres still one big difference.

Which is?

I didnt base bad bets on suicidal amounts of borrowed money like Wall Street did. Which I guess means they were even more irresponsible than Main Street, so remind me why they get a bailout and I dont?

Youre implying that Wall Streets beneficiaries are some privileged class.

Arent they?

Not at all. Just like normal folks, they put on their $3,000 Yves St. Laurent tailored pinstripes one leg at a time.

They do?

And some have had to downsize to interval-ownership luxury jets instead of owning their own.

Thats rough. But Im facing a hit, too. That $700 billion breaks down to $2,000 per American, which means my family of five will be on the hook for $10,000. Since youre investing my tax dollars in Wall Street firms, can I at least get some stock in return? That way if things turn around, Ill get a payoff for my investment.

Im sorry, we have to reserve those profits for the CEOs. For example, the ousted CEO of AIG was promised a $47 million parachute and the head of Lehman Brothers last year made $34 million on his way to bankrupting the company.

Then how about this: I had a bunch of stocks once worth $20,000, but now theyre only worth $10,000. Could you buy them off me at $20,000 so I dont lose money?

Are you crazy?

Well, youre giving $85 billion to AIG and $25 billion to Fannie and Freddie to make up for their losses. So why not make up for mine?

Sir . . .

By the way, how could a mega-insurance firm like AIG whose business is managing risk have so catastrophically mismanaged it?

Its not their fault. It wasnt in their computer model that millions of financially borderline people encouraged to take on huge mortgage debt wouldnt be able to pay.

That reminds me, my own house is down in value. Could you buy it off me for what I wish it was worth  which is basically what this bailout is doing for Wall Street?

No can do. Youre too small. And frankly, your finances are nowhere near as bad as Wall Streets.

So, as The New York Times said, youre telling me that regular folks who are neither rich nor reckless have to bail out those who are both?

Yes. Well only bail you out if you squandered billions, not thousands.

So we have to live within our means, but Wall Street doesnt?

Exactly. And one more thing before you go.

Yes?

Keep your wallet handy. The automakers will need a bail out soon, too.

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De Selby

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2008, 08:36:00 PM »
Quote
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Hey wait, I thought I was supposed to switch jobs in a depression....grin
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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2008, 09:11:19 PM »
The loans they are buying aren't "bad" per se.

They are merely packaged in such a way that it is impossible to tell which ones are solid and which ones are risky.

Given that the foreclosure rate is still pretty small, and most folks will either sell or refi rather than default, the .gov could be sitting on a net gain in value, depending on how they price the loan packages.

I think the theory is with the bailout the economy can rebound and the credit market will open back up and those bad loans can be paid off and replaced by more responsible ones.
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Leatherneck

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2008, 12:10:00 AM »
OK, but what is the mechanism for the taxpayer to benefit in any specific way? I might consider supporting a federal bailout of stupid lenders with a bad portfolio if I saw any chance of gaining eventually myself. But I don't, and I don't. I do not believe the "potential profit for taxpayers" being tossed about by some is anything more than a red herring. I think any future income from these bailouts will be immediately squandered by the fed. Even moreso with dems in charge.

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seeker_two

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2008, 01:25:03 AM »
I do believe the bailout is necessary to prevent serious damage to the economy....but I think there needs to be conditions attached to it...starting with the re-implementation of the Glass-Stegall Act and the application of the Anti-Trust Acts to break up these companies into separate, more manageable entities (if it's too big to fail, then it's too big...).

I'd also add these, too....



Besides, there's things the fed.gov can do without a $700billion down payment on the bailout plan.  They can do any or all of:
  • suspend capital gains taxes (talk about a flood of investment capital)
  • temporarily suspend the mark-to-market portion of the Sarbanes-Oxley act for sub-prime mortgage bonds (excellent explanation of the concept here)
  • extend FHA style insurance to the sub-prime mortgage market (if fed.gov $$ just have to be spent)

I'm sure there's other things that can be done, but those are the ones I've heard that make the most sense to me.

Don't just bail them out....fix the problem so it doesn't happen again...
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280plus

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2008, 01:38:11 AM »
I say eff em, let the chips lie where they fall. It'll eliminate a lot of the dead wood that caused all this and teach many people a valuable lesson IMHO. So my stuff is down, I'm getting DRIPs which means I'm getting more share for my dividends right now and when it comes back my position will be that much stronger. One thing that always stuck in my mind. The people that just hung in there during the Great Depression came out the other end looking very good. That's what I'm banking on right now. Wink
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Lennyjoe

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2008, 03:52:04 AM »
I'm not against the bail out per se but I am against all the other pork fat that they are trying to add. Acorn being one of them.

makattak

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2008, 04:08:46 AM »
This is a really thorny problem.

This crisis is the fault of bad government policies. (Specifically, encouraging (with a BIG STICK) bad loans and then using Fannie and Freddie to buy them up... how come no one is blaming them, btw?)

In order to prevent a severe fluctuation, the government could step in. This would prevent a massive drop in value of numerous firms. It may even prevent a <minor> financial crisis.

However, I think it may be best if the government does nothing. This happened because people expected the government to bail them out if anything went wrong (Fannie and Freddie backing the mortgages). I think we should let the markets fall and show them: don't trust the government to get you out of poor decisions.

Otherwise, this is just going to happen again when the democrats get some stupid notion to muck with the markets again.
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Thor

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2008, 08:39:16 AM »
This youtube video certainly places the blame directly where it lies:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxgSubmiGt8
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Brad Johnson

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2008, 08:54:22 AM »
I more agree with what Newt just said in an interview. No bailout. LEND instead. Make the money available, but it has to be paid back, and no buying of the bad loans. Only lend. Temporarily suspend mark-to-market to increase liquidity again.

And replace Paulson. I think the fact that a Goldman-Sachs representative was the only one there, with a 20 billion dollar stake, at the meeting regarding AIG shows there's a definite conflict of interest going on there. Newt was furious about that, and I can see why.

I saw the same interview and agree wholeheartedly with Newt's proposals.

- Kill the Mark to Market requirement that artificially devaluates/inflates values, instantly restoring up to $500 billion in liquidity.  Let it ride for two weeks.

- Make prime+2 loans available on a 25 yr payback for those companies that can't still can't quite get their issues back in order with the deletion of the MtM requirement.

- FIRE PAULSON!  NOW!!!

If the market doesn't correct itself after the two weeks of no MtM and low-interest LOANS (not bailouts) then, and only then, go back with a structured bailout.

Brad
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thebaldguy

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #15 on: September 30, 2008, 02:01:47 PM »
These financial firms made some bad business decisions. I don't see the government bailing out the pizza place in my neighborhood that recently closed.

They won't change things much even if they get bailout money; all it will do is cause inflation to get worse.

My girlfriend said something interesting about these companies. Why didn't they save some of their past profits for a rainy day? Why did they overpay these CEOs for running their firms into the ground?

End corporate welfare now. Give me some money and I will help the economy a lot more than they will.

Send an email to your elected officials and let them know how you feel.

never_retreat

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2008, 05:09:44 PM »
The Birk Economic Recovery Plan
 
 
Hi Pals,
 
I'm against the $85,000,000,000.00 bailout of AIG.
 
Instead, I'm in favor of giving $85,000,000,000 to America in a 'We Deserve It Dividend'.
 
To make the math simple, let's assume there are 200,000,000 bon-a-fide U.S. Citizens 18+.
 
Our population is about 301,000,000 +/- counting every man, woman and child. So 200,000,000 might be a fair stab at adults 18 and up..
 
So divide 200 million adults 18+  into $85 billon that equals $425,000.00.
 
My plan is to give $425,000 to every person 18+ as a 'We Deserve It Dividend'.
 
Of course, it would NOT be tax free.  So let's assume a tax rate of 30%.
 
Every individual 18+ has to pay $127,500.00 in taxes.  That sends $25,500,000,000 right back to Uncle Sam.
 
But it means that every adult 18+ has $297,500.00 in their pocket.  A husband and wife has $595,000.00.
 
What would you do with $297,500.00 to $595,000.00 in your family?
Pay off your mortgage - housing crisis solved.
Repay college loans - what a great boost to new grads
Put away money for college - it'll be there
Save in a bank - create money to loan to entrepreneurs.
Buy a new car - create jobs
Invest in the market - capital drives growth
Pay for your parent's medical insurance - health care improves
Enable Deadbeat Dads to come clean - or else
 
Remember this is for every adult U S Citizen 18+  including the folks who lost their jobs at Lehman Brothers and every other company that is cutting back. And of course, for those serving in our Armed Forces.
 
If we're going to re-distribute wealth let's really do it...instead of trickling out a puny $1000.00 ( "vote buy" ) economic incentive that is being proposed by one of our candidates for President.
 
If we're going to do an $85 billion bailout, let's bail out every adult U S Citizen 18+!
 
As for AIG - liquidate it.
Sell off its parts.
Let American General go back to being American General.
Sell off the real estate.
Let the private sector bargain hunters cut it up and clean it up.
 
Here's my rationale. We deserve it and AIG doesn't.
 
Sure it's a crazy idea that can "never work."
 
But can you imagine the Coast-To-Coast Block Party!
 
How do you spell Economic Boom?
 
I trust my fellow adult Americans to know how to use the $85 Billion 'We Deserve It Dividend' more than I do the geniuses at AIG or in Washington DC .
 
And remember, The Birk plan only really costs $59.5 Billion because $25.5 Billion is returned instantly in taxes to Uncle Sam.
 
Ahhh...I feel so much better getting that off my chest.
 
Kindest personal regards,
 
Birk
 
T. J. Birkenmeier, A Creative Guy & Citizen of the Republic
 
PS: Feel free to pass this along to your pals as it's either good for a laugh or a tear or a very sobering thought on how to best use $85 Billion!!
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2008, 05:14:25 PM »
Ugh, that email has to die!!!!111!!11!oneoneoneonetwotwo<backspace><backspace>11!

YUR MAF IZ RONG!!!
It's off by 3 decimal places.
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never_retreat

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2008, 05:52:18 PM »
I kinda thought the math was off at first glance. But It's still a bit of an eye opener to lay it out in a per person manner.
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Northwoods

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #19 on: September 30, 2008, 06:12:45 PM »
I kinda thought the math was off at first glance. But It's still a bit of an eye opener to lay it out in a per person manner.
Per person that works out to $425.  As in less than one month's average car payment.  As in the cost of a cross-country coach-class airfare on a cut rate airline.  As in NOT WORTH IT TO MAKE THE LEAP TO OUTRIGHT COMMUNISM (note that even at $425,000 it would still not be worth it, heck even at all $85billion going just to little ol' me I'd still say that it's not worth it).
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ctdonath

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2008, 05:40:27 AM »
Quote
the Fed is using what they have at their disposal to prevent exactly that.
They already did. Quietly, behind all the ruckus over multi-hundred-billion-dollar bailout bills, the Federal Reserve is already implementing their own multi-hundred-billion-dollar bailout plan. Funny, you don't hear much about that.
Quote
Keep your wallet handy. The automakers will need a bail out soon, too.
Too late. They already did. $25B a few days ago.
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Racehorse

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2008, 05:48:44 AM »
heck even at all $85billion going just to little ol' me I'd still say that it's not worth it).

Whoa. Let's not be hasty. If all $85 billion is going to me, I would say it's definitely worth it.  grin

slingshot

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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2008, 06:50:50 AM »
I'm generally against giving AIG 85 billion $.  Loans may be the answer there.  The other side is to let it fall.  Property that has their money will get chopped up and sold.  Tis the way the market works.  Investors are investors.  There are no guarantees contrary to what Obama says.

The US government is not in the business of making a profit on the misfortunes of business or citizens.  There will be NO PROFIT contrary to what Obama says with the 800 billion dollar plan.

Quote
And replace Paulson. I think the fact that a Goldman-Sachs representative was the only one there, with a 20 billion dollar stake, at the meeting regarding AIG shows there's a definite conflict of interest going on there. Newt was furious about that, and I can see why.

I agree with that.  I didn't know Paulson's history.  The conflict is unacceptable.  He leaves at the end of the Bush term and all of a sudden you see him as CEO of the very corporation that he protected with tax payer money.  He has to go.  I generally support Newt's plan.  Some cash may be necessary for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to bring them back to solvency.  Change the valuation method per Newt.

The credit market locking up is real.  The key is for the government to make it less a problem rather than a bigger problem.

You and others like you will benefit by being able to get mortgages with average credit worthiness.  You will benefit by being able to buy cars and other capital purchases.  Business will benefit by being able to stay liquid and have credit available for operations and capital investments.
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Re: How Would I Benefit from the Bailout?
« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2008, 01:50:27 PM »
I'm generally against giving AIG 85 billion $.  Loans may be the answer there. 

What they are talking about is a loan. 

I don't see why people think that the government is talking about just handing over 700 Billion to these companies, that is not what they are doing.  I am not going to argue if the plan is right or wrong but if you are going to speak on it them make sure you really know what it is going to do.