Author Topic: Hyperinflation questions  (Read 1812 times)

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Hyperinflation questions
« on: February 06, 2010, 11:01:52 PM »
For the economic historians...

How many instances of true hyperinflation have there been?  Weimar and Zimbabwe immediately come to mind.  Are there any others really good examples?

I'm curious to see, historically, exactly what kinds of abuse of the money supply have produced real hyperinflation (not merely high inflation).  A necessary first step is to identify a handful of examples for further investigation.

Everyone talks about hyperinflation and about what they imagine will cause it.  Any attempt to google the concept or ask about it tends to devolve into tinfoilery about how the sky falling and needing to burn currency to stay warm.  Not very helpful, that.

Never mind what people think will cause hyperinflation.  I want to see what kinds of actions actually did cause hyperinflation in some particular time and place.

Standing Wolf

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #1 on: February 06, 2010, 11:20:19 PM »
Sorry to do this, but where's the line between high inflation and hyper-inflation?
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Balog

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #2 on: February 06, 2010, 11:20:52 PM »
What's your definition of hyper (not just high) inflation? Does Argentina count?
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RevDisk

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #3 on: February 06, 2010, 11:29:16 PM »
For the economic historians...

How many instances of true hyperinflation have there been?  Weimar and Zimbabwe immediately come to mind.  Are there any others really good examples?

Angola, 1991 to 1995.
Argentina, 1975 to 1991, example 1 (1992) peso = 100,000,000,000 pre-1983 pesos.
Austria, 1914 to January 1923, the consumer price index rose by a factor of 11836
Belarus, 1994 to 2002.
Bolivia, 1984 to 1987
Bosnia-Herzegovina, 1993
Brazil, 1986 to 1994, 1 (current) real is the equivalent of 2,750,000,000,000,000,000 of old reals
Bulgaria, 1996 to 1997, 311% inflation
Chile, 1971 to 1981, peaked at 1,200% annual inflation
China, 1948 to 1955
Free City of Danzig, 1922 to 1923
Georgia, 1993 to 1995
Germany, well, you know.
Greece, 1942 to 1953, 1 (1953) drachma = 50,000,000,000,000 pre 1944 drachmai
Hungary, 1944 to 1946, in August 1946 the total value of all Hungarian banknotes in circulation amounted to one-thousandth of one US dollar.  Allegedly caused by Marxist insurgents.
Israel, 1979 to 1986, triple digit annual inflation
Japan, post war to 1951
Krajin, 1993 to 1998
Madagascar, 2004 to 2005
Mozambique, 1975 to present
Nicaragua, 1987 to 1990, 1 (1991) córdoba = 50,000,000,000 pre-1988 córdobas.
Peru, 1988 to 1990, 1 nuevo sol = 1,000,000,000 (old) soles.
Philippines, Japanese occupation
Poland, 1922 to 1925 (1 zloty = 1,800,000 mkp), 1989 to 1991 (1 new zloty was exchanged for 10,000 old zlotych and 1 US$ exchange rate was ca. 2.5 new zlotych)
Romania, 1990 to present
Russian Federation, 1921 to 1922, 1992 to 1998
Taiwan, 1940's
Turkey, 1990 to 2005
Ukraine - 1992 to 1996
United States, Revolutionary War continental, CSA dollar
Yugoslavia, 1989 to 1994
Zaire (now the Democratic Republic of the Congo), 1989 to 1996, 1 franc = 3 × 1011 pre 1989 zaires.
Zimbabwe, 1980 to present


Do you require any more?
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #4 on: February 06, 2010, 11:54:01 PM »
Define hyperinflation as 1000% per year or 100% per month.

I make the distinction to avoid nonsense like the Carter years being misconstrued as hyper inflation.

I'll add another caveat that the events should take place in reasonably advanced economies.  This rules out Zimbabwe and banana republics.

Oh, and I was hoping for something a little more insightful than a copy/paste from wiki, but thanks anyway.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2010, 11:58:30 PM by Headless Thompson Gunner »

makattak

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2010, 12:07:04 AM »
Define hyperinflation as 1000% per year or 100% per month.

I make the distinction to avoid nonsense like the Carter years being misconstrued as hyper inflation.

I'll add another caveat that the events should take place in reasonably advanced economies.  This rules out Zimbabwe and banana republics.

Oh, and I was hoping for something a little more insightful than a copy/paste from wiki, but thanks anyway.

Inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.

The list Revdisk posted has far more than the ones of which I am aware, but glancing over those and the ones I do know about tend to match up.

In every case, the government is monetizing their debt. Sometimes it is to pay for goods rather than borrow money (US Revolutionary Continental and the CSA) and sometimes it is paying debts already incurred (Weimar).

Again, war plays a large role in most previous occurrences, but a number of these are socialism out of control (Brazil, Argentina).

I like to remind everyone I can: Argentina was a first world country. In fact, at a number of points during the last century, Argentina looked to be on a better path than the United States. NO country can avoid the consequences of their actions.

God preserve us from our own stupidity, though.
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #6 on: February 07, 2010, 12:27:27 AM »
Do any of those instances stand out in your mind as being good "textbook" examples?

zahc

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #7 on: February 07, 2010, 01:45:20 AM »
Good thread; I've been wondering this myself for some time.
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Scout26

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #8 on: February 07, 2010, 03:45:25 AM »
makattak nailed the three basic causes:

In every case, the government is monetizing their debt. 1) sometimes it is to pay for goods rather than borrow money (US Revolutionary Continental and the CSA) and 2) sometimes it is paying debts already incurred (Weimar).

Again, war plays a large role in most previous occurrences, but a number of these are 3)  socialism out of control (Brazil, Argentina).

God preserve us from our own stupidity, though.

Probably to late for us.....
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Waitone

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #9 on: February 07, 2010, 06:20:02 AM »
http://www.augustreview.com/news_commentary/global_banking/the_weimar_hyperinflation%3a_could_it_happen_again?_20090520122/

An insightful and sobering review of the Weimar inflation.  Quantitative easing may NOT have been the cause of Germany's hyperinflation.  Definitely worth additional study.
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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #10 on: February 07, 2010, 07:56:10 AM »
I'll add another caveat that the events should take place in reasonably advanced economies.  This rules out Zimbabwe and banana republics.

I think that is a mistake in perspective. 

Some of those 'nanner republics were on par with the USA in the 19th century and part of the 20th century.  Zimbabwe / Rhodesia and some of the other post-colonial basket cases may not have had heavy industry, but they were net exporters of many ag products and were players in the global economy.  Is participation in global trade a sign of an "advanced" economy?  Necessary but insufficient?

The primary requirement for hyperinflation seems to be an "advanced" government, not "advanced" economy.  IOW, progressive/activist governance is the necessary ingredient and relatively non-advanced economies can soldier on indefinitely without hyperinflation if their gov'ts refrain from foolishness.
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makattak

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #11 on: February 07, 2010, 10:09:25 AM »
Do any of those instances stand out in your mind as being good "textbook" examples?

Weimar. It is literally the textbook case.

Argentina is being used in more textbooks as well.

Both are very good examples of the problems. (I am paying close attention to Argentina because of how much their experience scares me for the USA.)
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So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #12 on: February 07, 2010, 05:24:28 PM »
Rhodesia/Zimbabwe - Once the breadbasket of Africa.  The socialistic redistribution of property based on race is another text book example.
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Hold fast by the river.
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mordechaianiliewicz

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Re: Hyperinflation questions
« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2010, 08:15:38 PM »
Generally, the answer a nation decides on to clear it's debt is what causes hyperinflation.

In the case of socialist nations, inflation arises from a nation deciding the best way to give everyone a good standard of living is to print more money. (which is the misunderstanding of money, that it is wealth, as opposed to the goods and services it represents).

In non-socialist (or semi-socialist) nations, if a nation allows to much debt to accrue, it can "get out" of it's debt by printing up the currency to pay it's creditors (something individuals cannot do).... Problem is, the nation is counterfeiting just in the same way you or I would be.

When a nation prints more money than the citizens of that nation produce (in goods in services), it is counterfeiting. "Lying" about the value of that nation's economic output.

Hyperinflation occurs when a nation is "caught in the act" of inflating it's currency. It continues to have to print more and more.
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