Should Britain impose sanctions against Russia? Should the U.S. back them with

[Stand_watie]

reciprocal sanctions?

(see the news article below)

I won't claim I have any strong opinions on whether the Russian Government was actually involved in this murder...my own first uneducated guess would first lead me toward suspectingRussian business rivals, my second towards suspecting the Russian government, and my third towards some Machiavellian scheme by ideologues of Litvenko's ilk to make a martyr of him a demonize the Russian government.

However the Russians seem to be stonewalling the investigation. Should Britain take official action against them, and should the U.S. follow suit?

Obviously should isn't will. I'm discussing theory here...


http://blogs.abcnews.com/theblotter/2007/01/it_was_in_the_t.html


ABC News Exclusive: Murder in a Teapot
January 26, 2007 12:11 PM

Brian Ross and Maddy Sauer Report:

 British officials say police have cracked the murder-by-poison case of former spy Alexander Litvinenko, including the discovery of a "hot" teapot at London's Millennium Hotel with an off-the-charts reading for Polonium-210, the radioactive material used in the killing.

A senior official tells ABC News the "hot" teapot remained in use at the hotel for several weeks after Litvinenko's death before being tested in the second week of December. The official said investigators were embarrassed at the oversight.

The official says investigators have concluded, based on forensic evidence and intelligence reports, that the murder was a "state-sponsored" assassination orchestrated by Russian security services.

Officials say Russian FSB intelligence considered the murder to have been badly bungled because it took more than one attempt to administer the poison.  The Russian officials did not expect the source of the poisoning to be discovered, according to intelligence reports.

Russian officials continue to deny any involvement in the murder and have said they would deny any extradition requests for suspects in the case. 

Sources say police intend to seek charges against a former Russian spy, Andrei Lugovoi, who met with Litvinenko on Nov. 1, the day officials believe the lethal dose was administered in the Millennium Hotel teapot.

Lugovoi steadfastly denied any involvement in the murder at a Moscow news conference and at a session with Scotland Yard detectives.  Russian security police were present when the British questioned Lugovoi, and British officials do not think they received honest answers from him. 

British health officials say some 128 people were discovered to have had "probable contact" with Polonium-210, including at least eight hotel staff members and one guest.

None of these individuals has yet displayed symptoms of radiation poisoning, and only 13 individuals of the 128 tested at a level for which there is any known long-term health concern, officials said.

The Millennium Hotel has closed the Pine Bar and other areas where Litvinenko and Lugovoi met on Nov. 1, although the hotel says the remaining public areas "have been officially declared safe" and are open to the public.

[RevDisk]

Official action from the UK will probably be a strongly worded condemnation.  Ditto official action from the US.  Unofficial, Russia will toss the UK a bone in some manner.  A major govt contract to some UK firm, or opening some oil field to a UK firm, etc.

I sincerely doubt they'd admit it was officially sanctioned by the FSB.  Best case would be scapegoating some mid level desk jockey at the FSB.  More likely, they'll say nothing.

Imposing major sanctions would be a bad idea.  Insignificant but symbolic sanctions, sure.  Major sanctions would cause economic issues in both countries, which neither can afford.  If Russia's economy tanks, it's going back to the Soviet Union under a different name.  No one wants that. 

So it'll be handled likely through some deniable backchannel and likely a bone will be tossed.  Eventually it will be forgotten except to a couple books of post USSR history and maybe the plot line of some spy thriller novels.

[CAnnoneer]

He is a lucky spy who dies of old age in his own bed. They know the deal when they sign up. Sanctions? Bleh.

[Manedwolf]

Offing a spy is one thing, but if this WAS state-sponsored...

...couldn't endangering a nation's populace by contaminating a public area with a lethal radioactive agent be considered an Act of War, much like dumping nerve toxin in a subway or such?