Chavez pushed 'em out of the way...

[Gewehr98]

http://money.cnn.com/2007/05/01/news/international/bc.venezuela.nationalization.reut/index.htm?cnn=yes

I wonder what options Chevron and other firms have to get refinable products out of Venezuela's tar oil reserves, and what percentage of imported oil we no longer have access to?

I remember they had mentioned going into a hands-off mode if he tried something like that, ostensibly to remind him that his economy needed the oil revenues and the technology to make his substandard type of petroleum profitable. Evidently China and India don't have the means to work with tar oil, either.

So I notice unleaded hit $3.03/gallon here today, and my E-85 is up to $2.50.  Ripple effect, already?

[The Rabbi]

Oil is fungible, as I've pointed out repeatedly.  The oil that did come here will go elsewhere and what went elsewhere will come here.
What will also happen is that the trained people who run the oil fields and refineries will leave (actually already starting to) and Venezuala will be up a creek without a paddle since they will not be able to produce oil.  Typical of socialist/statist schemes that think you can eat the goose and still get the golden egg.

[Ben]

Evidently China and India don't have the means to work with tar oil, either.

Re: China, that may not be true for much longer. They're increasing oil use tremendously, and I expect them to beg, borrow, or steal technologies and get oil from wherever / whoever they can to keep up with their expansion.

If China were out of the picture, I would expect this to be an "Atlas Shrugged" scenario.

[Manedwolf]

Evidently China and India don't have the means to work with tar oil, either.

Re: China, that may not be true for much longer. They're increasing oil use tremendously, and I expect them to beg, borrow, or steal technologies and get oil from wherever / whoever they can to keep up with their expansion.

If China were out of the picture, I would expect this to be an "Atlas Shrugged" scenario.

China can also use coal conversion if they have to. China has a LOT of coal.

[onions!]

On the topic of Chinese coal mines

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6607419.stm

Average 17 miners per day (!) die.

[Antibubba]

Average 17 miners per day (!) die.

Production goes up, and the number of consumers drop!  Clever, those Orientals.

[Art Eatman]

Even without Chavez' foolishness, Venezuelan output is in decline.  Aging fields.  Their light sweet crude is less, as it is worldwide.  Estimates are that LSC is some 20% to 25% of world oil production.  (Which is why Valero is a better buy than other oil stocks; they're already set up for refining sour crude.)

Venezuela's skilled people started bailing out when Chavez first took over, which is why they're already in deep economic doo-doo.  Anybody who could get their capital out has already done so.

Yeah, China has been negotiating to buy from Venezuela, just as from Canada's tar sands.  I don't know anything about Chinese refining systems.

In USD and at US labor rates, a refinery to produce 200,000 bbl/day of gasoline is a billion bucks and three years construction time.  FWIW.  No idea of % labor & % material.

[RocketMan]

In USD and at US labor rates, a refinery to produce 200,000 bbl/day of gasoline is a billion bucks and three years construction time.  FWIW.  No idea of % labor & % material.

<temporary threadjack>
And from what I have read, 11-12 years to work through the governmental approval process.
Is it any wonder none have been built in what, thirty years?
<temporary threadjack/>