Author Topic: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years  (Read 10754 times)

Paddy

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Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« on: January 16, 2008, 04:45:29 PM »
WASHINGTON (AP) - Higher costs for energy and food last year pushed inflation up by the largest amount in 17 years, even though prices generally remained tame outside of those two areas.

Consumer prices rose by 4.1 percent for all of 2007, up sharply from a 2.5 percent increase in 2006, with consumers especially feeling the pain when they filled up their gas tanks or shopped for groceries. Prices for both energy and food shot up by the largest amount since 1990.

For December, the Consumer Price Index rose by 0.3 percent, down from 0.8 percent in November, as food costs were flat for the month and energy prices rose by 0.9 percent after an even bigger 5.7 percent jump in November.

Outside of food and energy, inflation rose a more moderate 0.2 percent in December. This measure of core inflation rose by 2.4 percent for all of 2007, down slightly from a 2.6 percent increase in 2006.

The Federal Reserve is closely watching to see whether the jump in food and energy becomes more widespread and starts pushing core inflation higher.

Analysts said that with core prices generally remaining well-behaved, it will give the central bank the leeway to cut interest rates further to battle a serious economic slowdown triggered by a steep slump in housing and a spreading credit crisis.

The expectation is that the Fed will cut a key rate by a half-point when officials meet at the end of this week. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke raised hopes for further rate cuts in a speech last week when he said that economic risks had grown significantly in recent weeks.

The rising risk of a recession has prompted politicians to consider stimulus packages to give the economy a jump-start to either prevent a recession or at least mitigate its fallout. President Bush has said he may unveil a plan around his Jan. 28 State of the Union address. Democrats in Congress and presidential candidates in both parties are putting forward their own plans.

The CPI report showed that the 4.1 percent increase in overall prices was the biggest since a 6.1 percent jump in prices in 1990.

Energy costs rose by 17.4 percent this past year while food costs rose by 4.9 percent. Both were the biggest increases since 1990. Gasoline prices were up 29.6 percent, the biggest increase since they soared by 30.1 percent in 1999.

The 2.2 percent rise in prices outside of food and energy was the smallest since a 2.2 percent rise in 2005.

Clothing costs and the price of new cars actually fell for the year, both dropping by 0.3 percent, while airline fares, reflecting higher fuel costs, were up 10.6 percent and medical care, always one of the leading areas of price increases, rose by 5.2 percent for 2007.

Workers' wages failed to keep up with the higher inflation. Average weekly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, dropped by 0.9 percent in 2007, the biggest setback since a 1.5 percent fall in 2005.

http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D8U70M9G0&show_article=1


So what are we doing about it?  George is over there begging the Saudis to increase production.

Pathetic.

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2008, 05:15:57 PM »
Despite popular misconceptions, there are some very powerful disinflationary pressures at work worldwide.  Combine those with the sudden bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting defensiveness of the lending industry, and there is serious risk of deflation.  Bernanke is erring on the safe side, as he should.

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2008, 06:56:29 PM »

So what are we doing about it?  George is over there begging the Saudis to increase production.

Pathetic.

AHHHHH, it's all bushco's fault! Your question is about word for word what Hillary said today. Shrub couldn't possibly be doing anything else over there, he is begging for oil that's it!

There is zero chance that the Fed has cooked the book on inflation for years and the proverbial chicken is coming home to the roost of the Alan "Fastest printing press in the West" Greenspan legacy.

To be fair I get itchy every time a politician says "stimulus package" but all the candidates say the same thing. People need to realize that a president has little to no impact on inflation, the best thing a government can do is not erect a bunch of stupid tax hurdles, have a real currency(we fail), and let the financial markets stand on their own rather than have the Fed twist monetary policy and the larger economy to suit the markets.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

Ben

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2008, 07:12:58 PM »
Might want to look at some extraneous factors for those two items. One example would be States and Congress over the last 30 years refusing to allow refinery construction, drilling in Alaska, and drilling offshore. It's finally coming back to bite us in the *expletive deleted*ss. Another would be a big increase in corn production for ethanol. That cascades through the "food chain" so to speak, and drives the prices of lots of different food up. Land that was growing corn for food is now growing it for fuel, and land that was once growing other stuff has transitioned to growing corn for fuel. Generally all comes back to supply and demand.


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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2008, 07:43:02 PM »
Despite popular misconceptions, there are some very powerful disinflationary pressures at work worldwide.  Combine those with the sudden bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting defensiveness of the lending industry, and there is serious risk of deflation.  Bernanke is erring on the safe side, as he should.

Apparently you completely missed my point.  Perhaps you should go back and re-read my posts in that thread.

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2008, 07:49:01 PM »
Might want to look at some extraneous factors for those two items. One example would be States and Congress over the last 30 years refusing to allow refinery construction, drilling in Alaska, and drilling offshore. It's finally coming back to bite us in the *expletive deleted*ss. Another would be a big increase in corn production for ethanol. That cascades through the "food chain" so to speak, and drives the prices of lots of different food up. Land that was growing corn for food is now growing it for fuel, and land that was once growing other stuff has transitioned to growing corn for fuel. Generally all comes back to supply and demand.

That's a boring explanation.  You aren't blaming hated politicians.  You aren't buying into the conspiracy theories we like so much.  There's no scapegoat, no politician for us to deride, no way for us to Monday-morning-quarterback the professionals who understand far more about economics than we do. 

Your explanation is too simple, too sensible, too innocent.  Your explanation doesn't make us feel good.

wooderson

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2008, 08:54:15 PM »
That's not exactly true - he is blaming Congress (code for the Democrats and liberals, of course) for ANWR, not opening up the Gulf to whichever gangsters want a piece, etc..
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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2008, 02:28:27 AM »
Despite popular misconceptions, there are some very powerful disinflationary pressures at work worldwide.  Combine those with the sudden bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting defensiveness of the lending industry, and there is serious risk of deflation.  Bernanke is erring on the safe side, as he should.

Apparently you completely missed my point.  Perhaps you should go back and re-read my posts in that thread.

Quote
Right now, it looks as though high oil and metals prices are all that's propping prices up.  Yet those commodity prices have as much to do with speculation in the futures markets as they do any real increase in cost.  I'm hearing more and more average people, people who don't really understand or follow the markets, talk about commodity futures as if they easy risk-free investments with guaranteed high returns.  That sort of sentiment among the general population is one of the first indications that a bubble is forming.  Given the highly leveraged nature of most of those investments, a panic sell situation is creepily plausible.  That could severely exacerbate disinflationary problems.

Back in the late '80s Japan experienced the synergistic effects of cheap foreign  goods, lower manufacturing wages, a real estate bust, and a lending industry that was scared to lend.  (Sound familiar?)  Deflation set in and wrecked their economy.  Their central bank couldn't fix it, not even by cutting rates to 0%.  Their economy still hasn't fully recovered.

Still think there's no reason to fear deflation
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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2008, 03:50:20 AM »
Might want to look at some extraneous factors for those two items. One example would be States and Congress over the last 30 years refusing to allow refinery construction, drilling in Alaska, and drilling offshore. It's finally coming back to bite us in the *expletive deleted*ss. Another would be a big increase in corn production for ethanol. That cascades through the "food chain" so to speak, and drives the prices of lots of different food up. Land that was growing corn for food is now growing it for fuel, and land that was once growing other stuff has transitioned to growing corn for fuel. Generally all comes back to supply and demand.


Don't forget that ethanol is more expensive to produce than gasoline, thereby increasing the price of gasoline due to the EPA mandate to add ethanol to all gasoline produced and maintaining "salon blends" of gas for different regions.

The Bush administration (which controls the EPA) could have suspended the regional blends requirement permanently like he did during the Katrina fiasco (his only good decision, IMHO). However, that wouldn't help his "fellow Americans" in the oil business, would it?

BTW, what investments are in the Bush family portfolio (and I mean ALL of the Bushes)?...... Wink
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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2008, 04:24:58 AM »
Quote
he is blaming Congress (code for the Democrats and liberals, of course)

It's probably a good idea not to put words in my mouth.

I believe several of the denials for expanding domestic production occurred during Republican controlled Congress / Senate. People want to reduce domestic production to reduce our "dependence" on oil? Fine. Then pay the resulting increased prices without whining about the absolutely logical and expected rise in cost for the less available product.
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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2008, 06:09:06 AM »
Another would be a big increase in corn production for ethanol. That cascades through the "food chain" so to speak, and drives the prices of lots of different food up. Land that was growing corn for food is now growing it for fuel, and land that was once growing other stuff has transitioned to growing corn for fuel. Generally all comes back to supply and demand.


Someone should be along shortly to trumpet the virtues of corn ethanol and tell us how the price of tortillas is not rising.
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2008, 06:23:27 AM »
Despite popular misconceptions, there are some very powerful disinflationary pressures at work worldwide.  Combine those with the sudden bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting defensiveness of the lending industry, and there is serious risk of deflation.  Bernanke is erring on the safe side, as he should.

Apparently you completely missed my point.  Perhaps you should go back and re-read my posts in that thread.

Quote
Right now, it looks as though high oil and metals prices are all that's propping prices up.  Yet those commodity prices have as much to do with speculation in the futures markets as they do any real increase in cost.  I'm hearing more and more average people, people who don't really understand or follow the markets, talk about commodity futures as if they easy risk-free investments with guaranteed high returns.  That sort of sentiment among the general population is one of the first indications that a bubble is forming.  Given the highly leveraged nature of most of those investments, a panic sell situation is creepily plausible.  That could severely exacerbate disinflationary problems.

Back in the late '80s Japan experienced the synergistic effects of cheap foreign  goods, lower manufacturing wages, a real estate bust, and a lending industry that was scared to lend.  (Sound familiar?)  Deflation set in and wrecked their economy.  Their central bank couldn't fix it, not even by cutting rates to 0%.  Their economy still hasn't fully recovered.

Still think there's no reason to fear deflation
C'mon, Rabbi.  The fact that you're selectively quoting me, leaving out my remarks about inflation rising a point or two in the short term, proves you know what I was saying. 

If you wanna debate what I said in that other thread, why don't you do so in that other thread?  I'd be happy to have a rational discussion on the matter, if that's what you want.

Paddy

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2008, 07:12:32 AM »
Frankly, I'm surprised the numbers aren't much higher. One would think the combination of high gasoline and the declining dollar alone would create a lot of inflationary pressure across the board.

But I've suspected for years that inflation is way higher than reported.

HankB

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2008, 08:04:12 AM »
Don't forget that ethanol is more expensive to produce than gasoline, thereby increasing the price of gasoline due to the EPA mandate to add ethanol to all gasoline produced and maintaining "salon blends" of gas for different regions.

The Bush administration (which controls the EPA) could have suspended the regional blends requirement permanently like he did during the Katrina fiasco (his only good decision, IMHO). However, that wouldn't help his "fellow Americans" in the oil business, would it?
Not necessarily the oil business, and not necessarily the Bushmen. (Who've screwed up ROYALLY on MANY issues, and continue to do so today, so don't say I'm a Bush supporter!)

Some years back, long before Dubya's administration, Minnesota mandated use of ethanol in fuel. It turns out that many of the politicians pushing it hardest were also the beneficiaries of campaign contributions from Archer-Daniels Midland . . . at that time (and perhaps still today) the largest agribusiness producer of fuel ethanol in the nation.

Think things are different today?  rolleyes

As far as inflation is concerned . . .  the way .gov is printing money to cover deficit spending - and has been for many years - I suspect it's just a case of things catching up to us.
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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2008, 08:07:35 AM »

Some years back, long before Dubya's administration Minnesota mandated use of ethanol in fuel. It turns out that many of the politicians pushing it hardest were also the beneficiaries of campaign contributions from Archer-Daniels Midland . . . at that time (and perhaps still today) the largest agribusiness producer or fuel ethanol in the nation.


Same here in Iowa, we've had subsidized gasohol since the 1970's

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Paddy

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2008, 09:06:27 AM »
AHA! Lookee this.........

Bush, Bernanke endorse economic stimulus
In testimony on Hill, Fed chief says plan must be put in place quickly

WASHINGTON - President Bush and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Thursday embraced calls for an economic stimulus package to avert recession. Bernanke said such a plan should be aimed at quickly getting cash into the hands of people, especially those with low and moderate incomes.

The Fed chief, in testimony to the House Budget Committee, said efforts that involve putting money into the hands of households and firms that would spend it in the near term would be more effective than other provisions, such as making Bushs tax cut permanent. Again, Im not taking a view one way or the other on the desirability of those long-term tax cuts being made permanent, he said.

While shying away from endorsing a specific plan, Bernanke made clear his support for the general concept of an economic rescue package and that it be temporary so that it wont complicate longer-term fiscal challenges. It is likely that any such package would include tax rebates.

Fiscal action could be helpful in principle and may provide broader support for the economy than the Fed can furnish alone through reductions in interest rates, Bernanke said. However, the design and implementation of the fiscal program are critically important, he said.

Bernanke forecast slower growth in 2008 but not a recession.

When asked by lawmakers about the potential effect of a fiscal stimulus package totaling around $100 billion, Bernanke said that the economic impact could be significant and not window dressing. Some have floated packages that would range in size from $50 billion to billion to $150 billion  all of which are in the range of reasonable, Bernanke said.

Rebates can be useful, he added.

Getting money to low and moderate income people is good in the sense of getting a bang for the buck because they tend to spend it quickly, Bernanke said. Research shows that the affluent spend some of their rebates, he said.

Temporary expensing and depreciation provisions for businesses also could spur spending, which would help the economy, he said. As it puts together a package, Bernanke added, Congress might want to consider a diversified mix of elements.

But he warned: I hope Congress can resist having a huge list of things that would lard up legislation and may not do much to help bolser the economy in the short run.

At the White House, spokesman Tony Fratto said, The president does believe that over the short term, that to deal with this softening in the economy, that some boost is necessary. That marked the first White House confirmation that Bush, confronting a deepening economic crises that has shaken much of the nation, supports government intervention. Until now, the White House said the president was just considering some type of short-term boost.

Fratto would not divulge the details or what the stimulus would look like, other than to say all options are being considered.

The shaping of a stimulus package was expected to accelerate Thursday during a conference call between Bush and congressional leaders. I would characterize it as a consultation, Fratto said.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., who was expected to be on the conference call, said Thursday: We have to spend the money, invest the resources, give the tax relief in a way that again injects demand into the economy, puts it in the hands of those who need it most and into the middle class ... so that we can create jobs.

On Wednesday, Pelosi and Republican leader John Boehner of Ohio promised to craft legislation to energize the weakening economy.

The fragile state of the economy has gripped Wall Street and Main Street and is a rising concern among voters. The situation has galvanized politicians  including those vying to be the next president  and poses the biggest test to Bernanke, who took over the Fed nearly two years ago.

The White House spoke up after watching a number of indicators of a battered economy. Consumer confidence has plummeted, economic woes have become the top concern of the American public, and the 2008 presidential contenders have scrambled to get in front of the issue.

Fratto declined to say when the president could announce a package, or whether it would be before or after the State of the Union address later this month.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/22705103/

This is what I've been saying all along.  The middle class is being systematically destroyed by huge transfers of wealth from the working middle class to the robber baron multinationals and the uber wealthy.  This has been going on since the Reagan administration and over time, working people have less and less money.  (see the last two sentences above in the OP article) Workers' wages failed to keep up with the higher inflation. Average weekly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, dropped by 0.9 percent in 2007, the biggest setback since a 1.5 percent fall in 2005.That's not healthy for a consumer based economy.  The remedy is to temporarily mitigate the trend and get some money back to the people who earned it in the first place.

I've been vindicated by Uncle Ben Bernanke.  grin

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2008, 09:22:35 AM »
Quote
Bernanke said such a plan should be aimed at quickly getting cash into the hands of people, especially those with low and moderate incomes.
How does the Fed Reserve do that?  Is Bernanke going to stand on the corner passing out fifty-dollar bills?
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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2008, 09:25:43 AM »
Riley,

Are you suggesting that people with low to moderate incomes spend more money, or spend money faster, than people with higher incomes?  Are you suggesting anything at all, since you highlighted the portions about lower income people?  Just curious why you highlighted that part of the story.
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Paddy

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2008, 09:35:11 AM »
The simple answer is that low /moderate income people tend to spend all the money they have.  Wealthy people only spend a portion of what they have.  There are way more low/moderates than wealthy, so their combined spending has a significant impact in a consumer driven economy.

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2008, 09:55:19 AM »
That's what I figured, as well.  I do wonder, though, if there are statistics available that show, by income class, how much money each group spends.
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Brad Johnson

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2008, 09:40:24 AM »
Quote
Land that was growing corn for food is now growing it for fuel, and land that was once growing other stuff has transitioned to growing corn for fuel. Generally all comes back to supply and demand.

Incorrect.  Most of the land now being brought into production hasn't trasitioned from crowing other cash crops.  It has been brought back into production after laying fallow under the Crop Reduction Program.  As for the fuel-not-food part, the impact of ethanol demands for corn vs the acres currently in production is, at best, very small. 

What's changed the prices isn't the actual demand, it's consumers' and the general public's perception of it.  Also, that money doesn't disappear into Big Agriculture's pocket.  Most of the midwest is ag-driven, meaning most of those low- and middle-income people who live there will directly benefit from higher commodity prices.  The people they work for will need to grow their business which means more or higher-paid employees.  Now we get back to trickle-down economics.

Brad
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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #21 on: January 17, 2008, 10:39:05 AM »
Despite popular misconceptions, there are some very powerful disinflationary pressures at work worldwide.  Combine those with the sudden bursting of the housing bubble and the resulting defensiveness of the lending industry, and there is serious risk of deflation.  Bernanke is erring on the safe side, as he should.

Apparently you completely missed my point.  Perhaps you should go back and re-read my posts in that thread.

Quote
Right now, it looks as though high oil and metals prices are all that's propping prices up.  Yet those commodity prices have as much to do with speculation in the futures markets as they do any real increase in cost.  I'm hearing more and more average people, people who don't really understand or follow the markets, talk about commodity futures as if they easy risk-free investments with guaranteed high returns.  That sort of sentiment among the general population is one of the first indications that a bubble is forming.  Given the highly leveraged nature of most of those investments, a panic sell situation is creepily plausible.  That could severely exacerbate disinflationary problems.

Back in the late '80s Japan experienced the synergistic effects of cheap foreign  goods, lower manufacturing wages, a real estate bust, and a lending industry that was scared to lend.  (Sound familiar?)  Deflation set in and wrecked their economy.  Their central bank couldn't fix it, not even by cutting rates to 0%.  Their economy still hasn't fully recovered.

Still think there's no reason to fear deflation
C'mon, Rabbi.  The fact that you're selectively quoting me, leaving out my remarks about inflation rising a point or two in the short term, proves you know what I was saying. 

If you wanna debate what I said in that other thread, why don't you do so in that other thread?  I'd be happy to have a rational discussion on the matter, if that's what you want.

Quote from:
Inflation isn't the real concern.  Deflation is.

Quote from:
Given the highly leveraged nature of most of those investments, a panic sell situation is creepily plausible.  That could severely exacerbate disinflationary problems.

Quote from:
Inflation isn't ideal, but at least it's tolerable, at least it can be managed somewhat by the Fed.  Deflation is disastrous.  It wrecks an economy and can't easily be reversed.  We're far better off taking the risk of inflation rising a point or two in the short term if it ensures we won't fall into a depression.
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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #22 on: January 17, 2008, 12:56:47 PM »
The market lost 300 points today.  Betcha a nickel it closes below 12k tomorrow.  Methinks we're right on the edge.............

charby

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #23 on: January 17, 2008, 01:01:09 PM »
The market lost 300 points today.  Betcha a nickel it closes below 12k tomorrow.  Methinks we're right on the edge.............
It has been below 12 (or really close) in the last 12 months.

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Brad Johnson

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Re: Inflation Rate Worst in 17 Years
« Reply #24 on: January 17, 2008, 01:07:49 PM »
Nah, tomorrow morning will start with a bunch of people buying to take advantage of the dip.  My prediction is it'll close up 200.

Brad
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