US Military Not Ready For an Attack On US...

[lupinus]

Give someone 50 guys, ten grand in cash, and about ten minutes and if they have even half a brain they could put a plan together to shut this country down cold.

[Bogie]

We have too much bureaucracy.

We have too many academics.
 
They get power, and they don't want to be around large sweaty people who are capable of breaking things.
 
So they try to run things. They try to insist that the world adhere to their "game plan." To their "rules."

Just one little problem.
 
There _are_ no rules. NONE. And that's not even a rule.

These guys are playing blue-sky games, with millions of dollars getting fed into computerized disaster projection programs, etc., etc., but that in itself has a fundamental problem - there are parameters which must be followed. Since, de facto, they do not exist, there is little to no likelihood of a manufactured projection panning out.

IMHO, the first week of cadet training at the major academies should have the cadets changing identity numbers, training partners, and training leaders daily. At random. One day at 3:00 a.m., move everyone's bunk. Wait two days, do it in the afternoon. Constantly off guard, having to adapt. Serve them lunch for breakfast. One meal nothing but dessert. Because real life does that to you.
 
That way, when some twisted SOB with a mindset like Firethorn or myself is leading a guerilla assault on the country, we might have a chance.
 
Too many folks cannot think on their feet. I'm guessing we've still got some general officers who are wondering why they don't do ReForGer any more... There's no Munich in the middle east...
 

[Bogie]

Oh, and I forgot the fun thing.
 
"No, Snibbs. How many times do I have to tell you? That scenario won't work. The attack has to be on a major city. The team doesn't want to drive two hours into the boonies to do a threat/preparedness assessment - Now, what's wrong with using Washington? Or Alexandria? Oh, and remember that you have to give the SWAT team 24 hours notice about the drill. The general really didn't like it when you forgot to do that, and it took them half an hour to get to the scene. It made him look bad."
 

[seeker_two]

seeker_two, the only reason why I'd carry a folding long gun is due to the increased accuracy inherent in any long gun over a pistol. Capacity isn't the issue..I'd not expect to get into a protracted firefight, nor would I want to endanger bystanders with excessive shots, that's movie stuff. But a sudden epidemic of incidents of "one guy going jihad and walking around with a WASR taking potshots at people", yes, I'd want something long with sights (the Sub 2000's peep sight is surprisingly not bad) to have a better chance of stopping them. Those still look like pistol length to me.

All true....but one thing that I thought about (and John Taffin in the recent issue of GUNS magazine) is having something with a lot of firepower that can be easily concealed so you don't become the SWAT team's next target. And one of those TP9's with the shoulder strap and a forearm light to hold onto would do quite well....even at extended yardage....

Your idea is good, too. 

[Firethorn]

Now, what's wrong with using Washington? Or Alexandria? Oh, and remember that you have to give the SWAT team 24 hours notice about the drill.

Given a little more thought on this, we also spend far too much time on airports and nuclear plants - People, any half-smart terrorist is going to realize that the worst they can likely do with a nuclear plant is SCRAM it such that it isn't going to be making power for a while.  You CAN'T make a modern nuclear plant go boom - there are too many safeguards in areas that even a suicidal terrorist isn't going to last long enough in to make a major radiation release possible.

Airports, of course, have lots of security.

Attack them?  Nah...  it's already been done.  Besides using a home-brew derailer to knock trains containing dangerous chemicals off the tracks around inhabited areas, I'd go after chemical plants and petroleum refineries.  Much more bang for the buck, so to say.  Safer too.

So air travel is already unsafe - now roads(due to chains and IEDs), and rails are unsafe as well.  Work's not safe either(I'd have them hit up the occasional business as well).

The whole idea is to turn us into a bunch of whining cretins afraid to go out of our homes*.  Make us feel unsafe, etc...

That and a single two man team, with a two man support element, working a 'leisurely' if at odd hours, say 40 hours a week.  Don't want to wear them out...  That's 160 man-hours a week.  We'd put more than that in in the first HOUR after an attack - the very goal of asymmetric warfare.

*Heck, a few home invasions, kill everybody in the house, then leave would remove even that.

[Boomhauer]

Don't forget, an effect would be that the gov't would be in a tizzy to produce new laws, increased gun control, etc. in an attempt to cut down on snipings and attacks. Of course, this would affect regular citizens only, disarming them further. DHS would be expanded, rights and protections removed in an effort to try to catch the terrorists.

And then the government would be trying to appease the terrorists in order to stop the attacks. Instituting Islamic law, hiring organizations sympathetic to the terrorists' cause to offer advice, etc.

You mentioned refiniries and chemical plants, Firethorn. I agree. Shut down some oil production, and prices skyrocket. Riots and looting occurs. Hit a chemical plant, and you've got mandatory evacuations, etc. Utter chaos.

[Manedwolf]

Work's not safe either(I'd have them hit up the occasional business as well).

Here, I suspect open carry would quickly become the fashion at work, and even lots of the senior management would have a rifle leaning in their office. I don't know about other places.

[De Selby]

I figure, in the end, that it'd take around 200 total - 100 actual attackers, 80 suppliers, and 20 controllers.

Absolute havoc.

Try this-spread a rumor that you're doing something bad to 100 people that you know, and believe you can trust.

See how long it takes for someone you don't trust to know the rumor.

That's why 100 man plans won't function, and why we have been busting these plans left and right. 

With 19 people and a few handlers, Al Qaeda barely managed September 11th.  Terrorism is still a threat, but secret plots involving this many people just aren't going to happen anytime soon.

[De Selby]

Ah, but they do... Here's how it usually works...
 
"We condemn them! We condemn them!"
 
(insert pause...)
 
"Okay - here is more money. Go kill infidels."

My favorite is:
Left side of mouth: "We condemn terrorism!"
Right side of mouth: "Killing Israelis or <fill in with infidel of choice> is not terrorism."

That's actually something I see said by Middle Eastern organizations all the time.  They don't agree that killing Israeli soldiers by Palestinians is terrorism, because they consider the Israel/Palestine conflict to be open warfare.  Some even go so far as to voice the deplorable and grossly immoral claim that killing people in cafes is okay on the theory that all Israelis are reserve soldiers, so attacking them wherever is legitimate.

It is deplorable, but not any different from what you see some groups saying about Arabs and Muslims in the US and Israel.  (Eg, the "let's nuke Mecca!" cheering crowd-they are supporting exactly the same kind of terrorism as the people who support suicide bombers in Israel.)  And it has absolutely nothing to do with the "clash of civilizations" nonsense that people ascribe to Bin Laden and to the rest of the global terrorist groups-indeed, most of the organizations that conduct terrorist operations in Israel are totally uninterested in and uninvolved in attacks outside of their own back yards. 

Different war, different terrorists, different phoney and despicable justifications for killing civilians-one of the biggest mistakes we can make in dealing with terrorism is to conflate all terrorists together and claim they all do what they do for the same reasons. 

[Firethorn]

That's why 100 man plans won't function, and why we have been busting these plans left and right. 

That's why I specified a cellular structure and two man teams.  Sure, some will be caught, but they don't know each other, don't know their cutout, etc...

[roo_ster]

Yep, cell-structure has been commonly-known and practiced (by some) for a long time.

Properly executed, it is robust.

Like many simple things, it is all about execution. 

[Bogie]

Yup. Nobody's gotta know nothin' except what they are tasked to do... And they wait until they get the order... And nobody knows anything about any other targets.
 
And heck, make their targeting random...
 

[AZRedhawk44]

They don't agree that killing Israeli soldiers by Palestinians is terrorism

As much as I despise the Animalstinians, I think the above statement is true.  Attacking soldiers of any stripe is not terrorism.  It's guerrilla warfare.  While it may be clandestine and sneaky, it ain't terrorism.  Terrorism is where you constantly attack soft civilian targets while looking like a member of that soft civilian target, with the intent of economic or political disruption.

Also, in the mythical SHTF/TEOTWAWKI/WTFBBQLOL "Revolution" where we reclaim our country from the demonic and unholy alliance between the Clinton-Kennedy machine and the UN, we'll be likely to use extremely similar tactics to what islamic terrorists use today.

[Firethorn]

And heck, make their targeting random...

I figured dartboards and dice would make an appearance, at least at the controller level.  Heck, even at the operation level.  'Thunk' - Ah, achmed, a target has been selected.  (At least if they're about as good as me - 50-50 chance of hitting the dartboard).

Terrorism is where you constantly attack soft civilian targets while looking like a member of that soft civilian target, with the intent of economic or political disruption.

The israeli inactive reserve aside - the Palestinion terrorists are terrorists because they prefer blowing up areas with civilians, especially women and children.  For example, explosions at checkpoints is generaly a last resort when the bomber is exposed.  They DO attempt to blend in with the civilians and attack 'civilian' targets like clubs and restraunts.

[Matthew Carberry]

Since I know how to disrupt the country, and y'all know how to disrupt the country, and anyone else with a smidgen of knowledge knows how to disrupt the country.  Why haven't they done it yet?

Do you think they are already here and just waiting for some particular event to trigger it?

I'm not trying to be snarky, but it is a really easy thing to plan, and for guys like us, who can disappear into the crowd and have supportive folks already in place in the millions, to execute.  If they could, why haven't they?

I don't think they have the guys here and I really think you guys are underestimating the logistic hurdles to getting a significant number of folks in place now to actually pull it off, when you have to start from so far away with so many layers of competent people looking for just such activity.

Looking at the 9/11 report, they really got lucky several times in getting guys in place and that while they had access to their financial assets and free run of Afghanistan and other places to train.  It took all of their European assets to make happen.  Those assets and training sites are under near-constant interdiction now.

Obviously I'd hate to be proven wrong, but I don't see the multi-cellular nationwide attack happening, certainly not with much success past the first hit and involving nothing we need a special brigade of troops to deal with.

[Manedwolf]

Because the enemy has a very long memory and plans in terms of decades.

[Firethorn]

Because the enemy has a very long memory and plans in terms of decades.

Because people like bogie and I are actually pretty rare, and not prone to the sorts of extremism needed to commit acts such as we propose?

That and the extremists have a problem with much of their manpower and resources being sucked up by our presence in Iraq and Afghanistan?

[Bogie]

Because if they curtail activities in the middle east, they lose a large part of credibility with their recruiting base...
 
And who is to say that they're not following the "insert an agent a day for the next decade" plan? They have patience. They have been doing this for centuries.
 
We can't even deal with a half-hour TV show without channel surfing...
 

[lupinus]

there are a few reasons they haven't.

they always want big and spectacular.  It takes a long time to put people into place to take dow nthe world trade center.

It takes very little to have a guy buy a rifle and a few hundred rounds of ammo, pull onto an I-95 over pass,  and start shooting at anything that moves.  Hell give Akmed 1000 bucks, a car, and someone legal to buy the rifle (or point him in the right direction to the right car trunk), and he could have this plan done within a week of sneaking across the Mexican border.  But the enemy want's to blow up things on the scale of the world trade center.

They aren't stupid, to call them so would grossly underestimate them.  But their priorities are different places then simple and effective.

[roo_ster]

I don't think they have the guys here and I really think you guys are underestimating the logistic hurdles to getting a significant number of folks in place now to actually pull it off, when you have to start from so far away with so many layers of competent people looking for just such activity.

Which is why recruiting those already in the USA is a higher priority than brining in new blood.  Even better, if they can net themselves a 2nd-gen American who speaks perfect English.

[Matthew Carberry]

I don't think they have the guys here and I really think you guys are underestimating the logistic hurdles to getting a significant number of folks in place now to actually pull it off, when you have to start from so far away with so many layers of competent people looking for just such activity.

Which is why recruiting those already in the USA is a higher priority than brining in new blood.  Even better, if they can net themselves a 2nd-gen American who speaks perfect English.

I'll grant that, but there has been no sign of that yet has there?  Are they really that good? 

Their past ops don't suggest any superlative skill, again, their big deal strike on 9/11 was planned for over a decade and in a much more permissive environment and almost fell apart without active countermeasures being taken.

[De Selby]

I don't think they have the guys here and I really think you guys are underestimating the logistic hurdles to getting a significant number of folks in place now to actually pull it off, when you have to start from so far away with so many layers of competent people looking for just such activity.

Which is why recruiting those already in the USA is a higher priority than brining in new blood.  Even better, if they can net themselves a 2nd-gen American who speaks perfect English.

It's also been an utter failure-the only people they can consistently rely on are extended family members and a select few recruits from specific middle eastern cities.

They have, in a few isolated cases, gotten English speaking, ethnic westerners to go to Afghanistan to fight their wars against Afghanis.

They have not successfully used such a person in an attack against a Western country even once.

[Bogie]

You don't think the DC snipers weren't aimed? I don't think they came up with that themselves - I think they got told what to do... And they/their families, are getting a reward for them keeping their mouths shut. I think they were just a test case. The first penguin that gets shoved into the water, to see if something large tries to eat it...
 

[Matthew Carberry]

You don't think the DC snipers weren't aimed? I don't think they came up with that themselves - I think they got told what to do... And they/their families, are getting a reward for them keeping their mouths shut. I think they were just a test case. The first penguin that gets shoved into the water, to see if something large tries to eat it...
 

Given the lack of contrary evidence, I gotta go with Occam in the case of the DC sniper.  One nut, one seed.

[De Selby]

You don't think the DC snipers weren't aimed? I don't think they came up with that themselves - I think they got told what to do... And they/their families, are getting a reward for them keeping their mouths shut. I think they were just a test case. The first penguin that gets shoved into the water, to see if something large tries to eat it...
 

Is there like some investigative reporting on the money their families are getting?  Or anything to indicate who was giving the orders?