Author Topic: Heller predictions? (Read 12437 times)

Nick1911 · « **on:** June 16, 2008, 12:57:58 PM »

With the Heller ruling nearing publication - what do you predict will be ruled? How will it affect current and future gun laws in this country? What logic do you base your assertions upon?

longeyes · « **Reply #1 on:** June 16, 2008, 02:00:33 PM »

Ask the Fab Five.

We could be in the last days of the Rule of Law in America.

41magsnub · « **Reply #2 on:** June 16, 2008, 02:04:35 PM »

Who is running the pool? I've got $5 on an overthrow of the DC gun ban specifically, but for the decision to be worded such that it will not matter for NFA items. I doubt SCOTUS will want to rock the boat that much.

longeyes · « **Reply #3 on:** June 16, 2008, 03:23:04 PM »

I hate to tell you this but the boat has a serious hole in the bottom and is taking on water.

41magsnub · « **Reply #4 on:** June 16, 2008, 03:35:15 PM »

Quote from: longeyes on June 16, 2008, 02:23:04 PM

I hate to tell you this but the boat has a serious hole in the bottom and is taking on water.

Really? Most all of the speculation I have seen is tentatively positive. What is your prediction then Mr. Negative?

yesitsloaded · « **Reply #5 on:** June 16, 2008, 04:26:19 PM »

I'll play. I have three levels of guessing including what I actually believe will happen, best, and "not good but ok".

Best case: I think all states will become shall issue, NFA item ownership is allowed in all states but registration is still the same, the registry is reopened.

"not good but ok": The DC ban is struck down and Chicago ends their ban because they know they will be next if they don't.

Realistically what I think will happen: DC ban is struck down and federal law will supersede all state laws allowing all citizens legally entitled to possess non-NFA weapons to keep said weapons in their house or property in a state of readiness. California may have parts of their AWBish laws killed in the process. Chicago will S*** themselves along with DC and SF. CCW laws remain as they are.

lupinus · « **Reply #6 on:** June 16, 2008, 04:34:55 PM »

My prediction?

The ruling will be in our favor but limited in scope. DC ban will be overturned and will set precedent to over turn (or possible, but not likely, a broader ruling that will immediately do this) similar laws. The key that it will do that will help us all in the years to come is set the stage clarifying firearms ownership and the right to defend yourself as an individual not a collective right.

But it will stick very close to the issue at hand which is the DC ban.

longeyes · « **Reply #7 on:** June 16, 2008, 04:56:16 PM »

Negative? No, just cynical.

Until last week I believed we'd win a clear and much-need victory with Heller, although I also believe the ruling will contain way too much wriggle room for us to get complacent.

My real concern is that what is happening with the 2A is being played out against many other encroachments on our vital interests in the civil liberties area. I see the rule of law, sovereignty, citizenship all radically threatened. We'll have our guns, and that's good, but we'll end up living in a nation devolving into fiefdoms of tribal warlords.

I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

seeker_two · « **Reply #8 on:** June 17, 2008, 01:25:57 AM »

Quote from: longeyes on June 16, 2008, 03:56:16 PM

My real concern is that what is happening with the 2A is being played out against many other encroachments on our vital interests in the civil liberties area. I see the rule of law, sovereignty, citizenship all radically threatened. We'll have our guns, and that's good, but we'll end up living in a nation devolving into fiefdoms of tribal warlords.

You think we'll be that lucky?......I'm thinking one-world government Koffi-Annan-style....

HankB · « **Reply #9 on:** June 17, 2008, 03:39:51 AM »

I would hope for a sweeping victory, but don't expect one from the court.

I expect the DC ban will be overturned, with language that will effectively overturn Chicago's de-facto ban. The scope will probably be quite narrow, very specific to the issues raised explicitly in Heller, leaving larger questions unanswered.

Chicago will still probably require a Federal lawsuit to get the city's compliance.

Otherwise, I expect the court will be silent on the matter of registration and NFA items (though the latter topic was raised during oral arguments) because - AFAIK - Heller did not specifically address registration, ownership, or possession of NFA items.

(If the court issues a broad ruling and the NFA registry is re-opened, I see an HKMP5SD in my future as soon as the price drops below $1k . . . grin

)

xavier fremboe · « **Reply #10 on:** June 17, 2008, 03:41:04 AM »

Quote from: 41magsnub on June 16, 2008, 01:04:35 PM

Who is running the pool? I've got $5 on an overthrow of the DC gun ban specifically, but for the decision to be worded such that it will not matter for NFA items. I doubt SCOTUS will want to rock the boat that much.

I think the Supremes will pretty much do as 41mag calls it. DC ban will fall, but little useful guidance.

Manedwolf · « **Reply #11 on:** June 17, 2008, 03:55:20 AM »

Chicago won't give in that easily. Daley would never concede. He already rules Illinois thanks to his puppet governor, so it'd take a federal lawsuit or more to get them to comply...and then the Chicago PD would still go around arresting/shooting people for legal CCW, and get away with it.

This is a place where they put a nurse in jail for 10 months for pulling an officer out of a burning vehicle. They accused her of stealing the officer's weapon.

xavier fremboe · « **Reply #12 on:** June 17, 2008, 04:02:14 AM »

Quote from: Manedwolf on June 17, 2008, 02:55:20 AM

Chicago won't give in that easily. Daley would never concede. He already rules Illinois thanks to his puppet governor, so it'd take a federal lawsuit or more to get them to comply...and then the Chicago PD would still go around arresting/shooting people for legal CCW, and get away with it.

This is a place where they put a nurse in jail for 10 months for pulling an officer out of a burning vehicle. They accused her of stealing the officer's weapon.

Link?

Manedwolf · « **Reply #13 on:** June 17, 2008, 04:04:15 AM »

Quote from: xavier fremboe on June 17, 2008, 03:02:14 AM

Quote from: Manedwolf on June 17, 2008, 02:55:20 AM

Chicago won't give in that easily. Daley would never concede. He already rules Illinois thanks to his puppet governor, so it'd take a federal lawsuit or more to get them to comply...and then the Chicago PD would still go around arresting/shooting people for legal CCW, and get away with it.

This is a place where they put a nurse in jail for 10 months for pulling an officer out of a burning vehicle. They accused her of stealing the officer's weapon.

Link?

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,367014,00.html

Scout26 · « **Reply #14 on:** June 17, 2008, 05:40:16 AM »

Oh, and there's a resolution pending in the Chicago City council to grant a short term (one month, IIRC) to re-register you firearms if you forgot like Alderman Mell (Blago's Father-in-Law)/

http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/958879,CST-NWS-mell20.article

[Squeaky high pitched Mayor Daley Voice] Ya see Your Honor, we don't have a ban, we just hadda deal where if you forgot, you can re-register your guns.....

ilbob · « **Reply #15 on:** June 17, 2008, 07:39:40 AM »

My guess is a narrow decision stating the DC ban on functional firearms in the home is unconstitutional.

longeyes · « **Reply #16 on:** June 17, 2008, 08:30:54 AM »

Quote

Quote from: longeyes on June 16, 2008, 09:56:16 PM

"My real concern is that what is happening with the 2A is being played out against many other encroachments on our vital interests in the civil liberties area. I see the rule of law, sovereignty, citizenship all radically threatened. We'll have our guns, and that's good, but we'll end up living in a nation devolving into fiefdoms of tribal warlords."

"You think we'll be that lucky?......I'm thinking one-world government Koffi-Annan-style...."

Not necessarily mutually exclusive.

Manedwolf · « **Reply #17 on:** June 17, 2008, 10:24:46 AM »

Quote from: longeyes on June 17, 2008, 07:30:54 AM

Quote

Quote from: longeyes on June 16, 2008, 09:56:16 PM

"My real concern is that what is happening with the 2A is being played out against many other encroachments on our vital interests in the civil liberties area. I see the rule of law, sovereignty, citizenship all radically threatened. We'll have our guns, and that's good, but we'll end up living in a nation devolving into fiefdoms of tribal warlords."

"You think we'll be that lucky?......I'm thinking one-world government Koffi-Annan-style...."

Not necessarily mutually exclusive.

Chicago is already a tribal fiefdom. There is Daley, and what Daley says...goes. What opposes Daley just GOES.

Then there's Detroit's urban prairies overseen by Mayor Thug...

AJ Dual · « **Reply #18 on:** June 17, 2008, 11:06:14 AM »

- The 2A is an individual right.

- The D.C. Gun Ban is unconstitutional, upholding the lower appeals court ruling.

- If there is any scrutiny standard given, it will be "moderate scrutiny".

Those three things, even just the first two, and silence on the scrutiny standard, leaving it to future cases to build up over time like the 1st Amendment's scrutiny standard has, will be a HUGE WIN for us as-is,

If you're expecting anything more than this like 14th Amendment incorporation, striking of the MG freeze rider in the '86 FOPA, or NFA 34 itself to be stricken. Or if you think merely getting the above is a "compromise" or a "sell out", you don't understand the Supreme Court, it's history or jurisprudence, or the judicial branch at all.

Werewolf · « **Reply #19 on:** June 17, 2008, 12:17:27 PM »

What I believe will most likely happen - narrow ruling - Affirms individual right but written in such a way that it applies to DC only.

Best Case - Affirms individual right, incorporation, opinion written broad enough that the supremes indirectly acknowledge that 34 NFA and 68 GCA are unconstitutional.

Worst Case - 2nd is a collective right, any restriction on individual ownership and use is reasonable, only individuals in a militia, unorganized or otherwise, have the right to keep a firearm and only for training purposes. Current legal definition of militia allows states, cities etc to disarm anyone older than 45 and younger than 16 who isn't a male. States begin disarming US citizens.

The Annoyed Man · « **Reply #20 on:** June 17, 2008, 12:29:28 PM »

We need to see a reaffirmation of the 2nd as an individual and unrestrictable right. Any other equivocation by any of these 'justices' will mean that tyranny is not far away.

Tallpine · « **Reply #21 on:** June 17, 2008, 06:05:01 PM »

Heller predictions?

Both sides will be unhappy with the result.

Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas · « **Reply #22 on:** June 17, 2008, 08:23:17 PM »

The 2nd will be recognized as an individual right, with 'reasonable restrictions'. DC will be said to have unreasonable restrictions. Potentially opening the door for some nasty 'reasonable restrictions' in Chicago. For instance, handguns are completely legal to purchase... there's just a $900 tax on each one. For the children, you know. And they need to be registered. Every year... for a fee, of course.
If the ruling is far enough on our side, though, Daley may secede from the union, and pledge himself to Hamas.

Finch · « **Reply #23 on:** June 17, 2008, 11:39:31 PM »

Does it matter. We got Obama or McCain coming into office soon. Neither one gives a rats ass about the Supreme Court or the Constitution...

ilbob · « **Reply #24 on:** June 18, 2008, 05:40:00 AM »

Quote from: Paddy on June 17, 2008, 11:29:28 AM

We need to see a reaffirmation of the 2nd as an individual and unrestrictable right. Any other equivocation by any of these 'justices' will mean that tyranny is not far away.

Just out of curiousity. Are there any RTKBA restrictions at all you are willing to live with?

Would you agree to a mandatory requirement that a gun safety pamphlet be supplied with each gun sold?

Instant background check?

Is it OK with you if violent felons have firearms? How about the crazy dumpster diver that lives under the bridge?

Can children bring guns to school with them?

How about if violent felons have firearms while in prison?

News:

Author Topic: Heller predictions? (Read 12437 times)