The futures market is NEVER driven by the "normal" supply/demand dynamic. It doesn't matter what supply and demand are right now for the futures market, it matters what they expect the price (by virtue of the future supply/demand dynamic) to be in the future.
IF the futures market is bidding up the price, it is because they expect the price to rise in the future. If someone expects the price to fall, now is the time to sell. If no one is selling, no one thinks the price is going down.
All very true, makattak. I should have been more expansive in what I was saying.
In my opinion, most speculators are extrapolating from poor current data, and making bad guesses as to what the future holds with regard to oil consumption. Every little bit of data that even slightly appears to point to an improving economy is seized upon as a justification for forecasting increasing oil consumption over the coming months. Many pundits are claiming the recession is already over, that it was a quick 'V' shaped recession, and hence oil demand in the developed and developing nations will increase soon. And of course, the commodities players are betting on higher oil prices. There seems to be more than a little pack or mob mentality at work right now amongst the speculators.
Other indicators point to it being more of the 'bathtub' type recession, and that we have another year or three to go before it finally ends. Many economic prognosticators believe we are in for another serious downturn in the markets, starting in Sept/Oct this year. There some serious concerns about commercial real estate loans that have yet to play out. Some of China's methodology for totaling its economic activity is highly suspect to some, leading to concerns that their economic growth numbers are seriously inflated.
In any event, time will tell whether or not the oil futures market is heading for a bubble. We should know in the next couple of months.
