There are a few parallels to the Obama win over McCain and the Carter win over Ford. In each case, a relatively inexperienced Democrat with charisma beat an uninspiring Republican, thanks to a sympathetic media. (Though McCain wasn't the incumbent, Obama, of course, was helped by Bush's poor performance, as Carter was by Nixon's) Each Democrat promised bread and circuses; Carter promised $50 to every American - equivalent to several hundred $$$ today - and Obama promised tax cuts to 95% of Americans, even the 40% or so who pay no income tax.
Shortly after Carter's election, Saturday Night Live did a skit in which Dan Ackroyd played Carter. In the skit, "Carter" said, among other things, that now as President he was made privy to information he didn't have before . . . and y'all could kiss that $50 goodbye. Shortly afterwards, the real Jimmy Carter gave one of his infamous fireside chats that looked as if it were lifted straight from the SNL skit. People were most unhappy, and many believe this began Carter's slide, which was marked by double-digit inflation, rising energy prices, and punctuated with the Iran hostage crisis.
Now Obama is going to take office in a recession, with burgeoning deficits and an enormous national debt. He's pledged national health care, tax cuts for 95% of us, a trillion dollars in new spending, increased foreign aid (including a welfare program for the world) . . . and if you look at the numbers, it simply isn't possible.
And then there are the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran's nuke program, Obama's idea of talking with Mahmood Ahmadinejad without preconditions . . . could Iran cause problems for another Democrat president?
How will Obama's acolytes react when US troops are still in the Middle East after a year . . . or two or three?
How will Americans react when they see their energy bills go up with an Obama carbon tax - especially if it causes the economy to tank even more?
He's going to have to back away from some of his promises . . . obviously, his fellow travelers in the media are going to blame Bush, and keep blaming Bush . . . but how long will they be able to continue?
I'm guessing the shine on his halo will begin to show tarnish at around the 18 month mark. I may be entirely wrong, but if things go south the way I expect, I see Obama as a one-term President.
