Author Topic: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?  (Read 13490 times)

MikePGS

  • New Member
  • Posts: 78
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #25 on: December 06, 2008, 03:56:08 PM »
Actually Michigan is a Right To Work state, os if there was a bankruptcy they would probably temporarily stay in state, but eventually move out due to the single business tax
"The people in the gun culture have a better safety record than any police department in the nation, but in
several states actually prohibit us from using guns for self-protection, and in all the other states except one
they make us buy a license. They tax us so we can have more cops, and when crime still goes up, they tax
us more and ban more of our guns."
John Ross, Unintended Consequences

De Selby

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 6,836
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #26 on: December 08, 2008, 02:39:33 AM »
Micro,

What you say is true-the problem is that this happening is likely to strengthen whoever will pick up after the UAW, more than anything else.

Best case scenario: the contract is honored, not broken, for pensions, and GM ends up totally reorganizing such that it doesn't depend on government welfare and can negotiate new contracts for future production freely.

Throwing a contract in the trash because a union negotiated it is no different from breaking any other contract; you either stick to your bargains or you do not, and markets don't seem to function well if no one is ever obligated to deliver what they bargain to deliver.
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

Headless Thompson Gunner

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,517
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #27 on: December 08, 2008, 03:22:08 AM »
Quote
Best case scenario: the contract is honored, not broken, for pensions, and GM ends up totally reorganizing such that it doesn't depend on government welfare and can negotiate new contracts for future production freely.
Calling this bailout "corporate welfare" is naive.  This is a UAW bailout, plain and simple.  Bankruptcy for GM would mean the end of those precious UAW contracts, so it becomes critical for the UAW that the government save GM from bankruptcy.

The UAW has killed its golden goose.  Government money is the UAW's only remaining play.

I think that Micro is right.  The only true solution for this mess is for the carmakers to go bankrupt and be restructured.


MicroBalrog

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,505
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #28 on: December 08, 2008, 04:41:48 AM »
Throwing a contract in the trash because a union negotiated it is no different from breaking any other contract; you either stick to your bargains or you do not, and markets don't seem to function well if no one is ever obligated to deliver what they bargain to deliver.

What does this have to do with anything?

If GM has failed to hold up their end of the contract with UAW, why exactly should you be forced to help them do so?

How is this different from [using the Randian analogy] Hank Rearden supporting Orren Boyle?
Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner

De Selby

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 6,836
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #29 on: December 08, 2008, 07:37:44 AM »
Calling this bailout "corporate welfare" is naive.  This is a UAW bailout, plain and simple.  Bankruptcy for GM would mean the end of those precious UAW contracts, so it becomes critical for the UAW that the government save GM from bankruptcy.

The UAW has killed its golden goose.  Government money is the UAW's only remaining play.

I think that Micro is right.  The only true solution for this mess is for the carmakers to go bankrupt and be restructured.



Believing that this is all for the UAW is naive-it's not like the execs are working for them.  And yes, it would cost likely on the order of millions of jobs (note that this number vastly exceeds UAW membership) should the big three go under.  That is why the Government is interested in this welfare package.

Giving taxpayer money for something other than a bargained for exchange is welfare.  If you don't think it's welfare, I'm not sure why you'd agree with Micro on this, because his position presumes that this sort of welfare is bad.

Micro,

There are easily enough assets to satisfy the contract-but bankruptcy here allows you to throw contracts in the trash.  That is what the bailout package has to do with the program.  GM's contracts with its own workers aren't the only contracts that would be broken, either. 

Bankruptcy does not favor free market principles here, in other words.

But, of course, if I'm going to be passing out welfare, I'd rather pass it out to pay a contract for a few thousand pensioners who actually did what they promised, than to whoever else is going to get the welfare this year. 
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

MicroBalrog

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,505
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #30 on: December 08, 2008, 08:20:42 AM »
So your essential argument is "We're handing out money like candy anyway, and since we're not going to stop any time soon, I'd rather some of it go to these guys, too?"
Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner

Hutch

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2,223
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #31 on: December 08, 2008, 08:29:09 AM »
All this dough we're handing out comes from where exactly????

Either taxes or inflation.

Don't bet on taxes.  At the rate we'd have to tax, a huge portion of the economy would go off-shore or under ground.

Am I missing something?  Are most (or enough, anyway) willing to put up with Swedish tax rates in order to finance bailouts of failing bidness?
"My limited experience does not permit me to appreciate the unquestionable wisdom of your decision"

Seems like every day, I'm forced to add to the list of people who can just kiss my hairy ass.

De Selby

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 6,836
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #32 on: December 08, 2008, 08:30:37 AM »
So your essential argument is "We're handing out money like candy anyway, and since we're not going to stop any time soon, I'd rather some of it go to these guys, too?"

No-it's that handing out welfare to organizations that aren't as powerful as massive corporations, and that will pay contracted pensions (thus relieving the vote pressure on freedoms) is more palatable in the long run.

You can reason with the folks that comprise the UAW, because the average American worker actually does believe in economic liberty, and the reality is that they were never so powerful in the first place.   The UAW can't snap its fingers and get $700 billion in welfare, for example-but destroying all of the pensioners that were part of it can easily make six figure vote tallies in favor of robin hood socialism.

I think I see the root of our disagreement in this: I'm presuming that welfare money is going to hit the industry in some fashion, and you aren't.  Letting GM die isn't an option for the politicians, because it's actually more important in every measure than the financial sector....which already got $700 billion.  

What you're seeing now is showboating, no more.

"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

makattak

  • Dark Lord of the Cis
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,022
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #33 on: December 08, 2008, 10:18:24 AM »
No-it's that handing out welfare to organizations that aren't as powerful as massive corporations, and that will pay contracted pensions (thus relieving the vote pressure on freedoms) is more palatable in the long run.

You can reason with the folks that comprise the UAW, because the average American worker actually does believe in economic liberty, and the reality is that they were never so powerful in the first place.   The UAW can't snap its fingers and get $700 billion in welfare, for example-but destroying all of the pensioners that were part of it can easily make six figure vote tallies in favor of robin hood socialism.

I think I see the root of our disagreement in this: I'm presuming that welfare money is going to hit the industry in some fashion, and you aren't.  Letting GM die isn't an option for the politicians, because it's actually more important in every measure than the financial sector....which already got $700 billion.  

What you're seeing now is showboating, no more.



>.<

Every day I weep for our education system.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

MicroBalrog

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,505
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #34 on: December 08, 2008, 10:27:33 AM »
I understand that the politicians who are opposing this are doing this for show.

But I do not think it matters why they do so.

At some point you will have to stop bailing people out.

The earlier you can start, the better.
Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner

De Selby

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 6,836
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #35 on: December 09, 2008, 05:44:02 AM »
>.<

Every day I weep for our education system.

Is that because the financial gurus who have had charge of the economy over the past 20 years did such a horrible job, or because you believe that it's incorrect to note that finance is primarily a paper chase, and paper doesn't actually feed people.

Having successful investment banks and home loan programs doesn't turn dirt and seed into corn; it is only one of many methods to facilitate the exchanges between the folks who actually produce.
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

MicroBalrog

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,505
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #36 on: December 09, 2008, 06:17:24 AM »
Quote
Having successful investment banks and home loan programs doesn't turn dirt and seed into corn; it is only one of many methods to facilitate the exchanges between the folks who actually produce.

I don't think you quite understand how the system works.
Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner

De Selby

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 6,836
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #37 on: December 11, 2008, 04:30:11 AM »
I don't think you quite understand how the system works.

Feel free to correct my understanding.  I mean that sincerely.
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

MicroBalrog

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,505
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #38 on: December 11, 2008, 04:57:36 AM »
Feel free to correct my understanding.  I mean that sincerely.

The existence of a  working loan/investment system (provided by banking services) essentially allows the market as we know it to operate.  This manifests not only in the form of businesses getting loans to start up or expand (which REQUIRES an existing loan/investment system), but also in a lot of kinds of small time farming, where it is common for farmers to loan money at one time of the year to pay it back at harvest. In essence, without an operational system of loans, investments, and so forth, the economy as we know it would not exist.

Consider this:

Most of what economists call the 'money supply' is not physical greenbacks. Most of the 'money supply' is what is called 'outside money' - loans, derivatives, and bonds. This virtual money is created by modern banking.
Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner

De Selby

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 6,836
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #39 on: December 11, 2008, 05:09:23 AM »
Quote
In essence, without an operational system of loans, investments, and so forth, the economy as we know it would not exist.

Yes, that's true-but we have an economy that is based on this sort of finance.  Economies need not be so-there is no law of the universe that mandates having investment banks and interest bearing accounts in order for investment and trade to occur.  You can allocate resources by command, by direct ownership of assets (ie, you have to buy a house if you want to invest in real estate, not a mortgage backed security), and you can also completely overhaul finance by going to something like the gold standard.

The point was not that modern American finance doesn't serve this purpose (although, ironically, it doesn't at present-look at what's happening to investments and credit in this market as a result of all the paper-pushing); it's that modern American finance is only one of many ways to get the job done. 

And that's how it should be treated-it's a means to facilitate production and exchange, not an end in itself.  But because financial centers tend to acquire disproportionate purchasing power (without actually building anything-they essentially just give others the green light to manufacture via extending credit or investing money), they tend to buy themselves equally disproportionate political power.

So now we have the financial houses, which aren't serving their purpose in the economy, and who actually have been just issuing play-securities for some time and reaping real money as a result....getting a trillion dollars in welfare because they have the most political clout of any part of the economy.
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

Monkeyleg

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,589
  • Tattaglia is a pimp.
    • http://www.gunshopfinder.com
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #40 on: December 11, 2008, 12:48:48 PM »
Quote
Economies need not be so-there is no law of the universe that mandates having investment banks and interest bearing accounts in order for investment and trade to occur.

True, but economies that do not have exchanges involving interest on lending or borrowing are not as efficient. One of the major reasons that many Arab countries are stuck in the 1600's is that Islamic law forbids charging or receiving interest. It's very difficult to grow a business if you're not able to borrow money, and it's very difficult to find a lender who will take goats as payment for a loan. ;)

This is a big reason why the Jewish economic culture flourished during the same time period that Islamic economic culture stood still.

Headless Thompson Gunner

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,517
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #41 on: December 11, 2008, 03:06:02 PM »

And that's how it should be treated-it's a means to facilitate production and exchange, not an end in itself.  But because financial centers tend to acquire disproportionate purchasing power (without actually building anything-they essentially just give others the green light to manufacture via extending credit or investing money), they tend to buy themselves equally disproportionate political power.

You're right that finance facilitates production.  You just don't see the implications of that concept.  You can't produce anything in a factory unless you first build the factory.  Without finance and the capital improvements it provides, there would be no production.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2008, 03:11:10 PM by Headless Thompson Gunner »

Headless Thompson Gunner

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,517
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #42 on: December 11, 2008, 03:13:33 PM »

Most of what economists call the 'money supply' is not physical greenbacks. Most of the 'money supply' is what is called 'outside money' - loans, derivatives, and bonds. This virtual money is created by modern banking.
This is crucial to understand.  The money supply doesn't exist in the form of dollars, it exists as credit extended from the banking system.  Bank loans expand the money supply via fractional reserve banking.  The money supply expands whenever loans are made.  The size of the money supply is roughly proportional to the amount of credit issued in the economy. 

That's how the Federal Reserve controls the money supply.  They raise interest rates and it becomes more costly to borrow money, so less people borrow, credit contracts, and the money supply shrinks.  They lower rates and more people borrow, credit expands, and the money supply expands.  Thus monetary policy in the US depends upon the existence of a functioning banking system. 

So what happens if all of the major banks in the US disappear?  It's far worse than just the loss of the bank businesses themselves (lost jobs, lost deposits, and so forth).  The real problem is that the nation loses control of the money supply.  Without banks to issue credit, credit disappears, deflation sets in, and you have yourself another great depression.  No thanks, personally.

This is what I was alluding to earlier when I said the banking system plays a vital roll in national monetary policy.  The economy depends upon money, and the banking industry is what makes money work in our country.  The banking industry is far more important than the car industry.

MicroBalrog

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,505
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #43 on: December 11, 2008, 03:22:47 PM »
HTG, you are not quite correct.

As far as I understand, the Fed has three tools to control money supply:

1. Adjusting the rates on its loans, as you described.

2. Printing outside money, which is the smallest fraction of the money supply.

3. Its regulations of the banking system, because the banking system itself creates inside money/derivatives.
Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner

makattak

  • Dark Lord of the Cis
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,022
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #44 on: December 11, 2008, 03:32:04 PM »
HTG, you are not quite correct.

As far as I understand, the Fed has three tools to control money supply:

1. Adjusting the rates on its loans, as you described.

2. Printing outside money, which is the smallest fraction of the money supply.

3. Its regulations of the banking system, because the banking system itself creates inside money/derivatives.

You were right except the last one.

HTH is essentially correct in the effects, it is the causes he is missing.

The Fed controls the money supply through:

1. Interest rate on Discount Loans to banks (NEVER uses this one for policy)

2. The reserve requirements banks face (NEVER uses this one either)

3. Open Market operations- this is what they use.

In open market operations, the Fed will buy or sell T-Bills to (or from) banks.

This will then add cash to the bank (open market purchase) or remove cash from a bank (open market sale).

With this cash that did not exist until the Fed bought the T-Bill, the bank may then make loans. This increase in loanable funds (increase supply) is what causes the market price of loans (interest rate) to fall. As such, when the Fed says it's lowering the interest rate, what it really means is that it will create the conditions until the interest falls by X percent.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

Headless Thompson Gunner

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,517
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #45 on: December 11, 2008, 03:39:31 PM »
Yes, I grossly oversimplified things.  Shoulda known you rascals would come along and nitpick me for it.   :lol:

MicroBalrog

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,505
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #46 on: December 11, 2008, 03:45:19 PM »
Quote
You were right except the last one.

The Fed is also a regulatory authority. Wouldn't its various rulemaking powers also affect inside money by affecting the way loans are made?
Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner

makattak

  • Dark Lord of the Cis
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,022
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #47 on: December 11, 2008, 03:46:14 PM »
The Fed is also a regulatory authority. Wouldn't its various rulemaking powers also affect inside money by affecting the way loans are made?

It is a regulatory authority. However, those regulations are not used for monetary policy because the Fed has far better tools for that.

Edit:

Also, as far as I know, the regulatory authority of the Fed does not extend into lending rules: most of theirs has to do with governance, reserve requirements and bank capital requirements. Lending rules are created and enforced by one of the other myriad agencies.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2008, 03:50:23 PM by makattak »
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

charby

  • Necromancer
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29,295
  • APS's Resident Sikh/Muslim
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #48 on: December 12, 2008, 08:55:42 AM »
Well it appears they aren't getting squat because the bailout died in the Senate.

Iowa- 88% more livable that the rest of the US

Uranus is a gas giant.

Team 444: Member# 536

Boomhauer

  • Former Moderator, fired for embezzlement and abuse of power
  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,309
Re: Wait, I thought it was supposed to be $25 billion...?
« Reply #49 on: December 12, 2008, 09:03:53 AM »
Well it appears they aren't getting squat because the bailout died in the Senate.



For now. It'll be back...

Quote from: Ben
Holy hell. It's like giving a loaded gun to a chimpanzee...

Quote from: bluestarlizzard
the last thing you need is rabies. You're already angry enough as it is.

OTOH, there wouldn't be a tweeker left in Georgia...

Quote from: Balog
BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD! SKULLS FOR THE SKULL THRONE! AND THROW SOME STEAK ON THE GRILL!