Untold Story of Election 2008: The Death of the NRA

[Waitone]

Would there be any board members who could predict the NRA's counter-spin?  I feel a donation to the NRA coming on.

http://www.alternet.org/rights/109841/untold_story_of_election_2008%3A_the_death_of_the_nra/

Among the big losers in November were the NRA and the myth of the once-feared "NRA Voter." Reform of our gun laws is on the way.

Last month, voters across the country took a cue from the late Charlton Heston and pried the assault weapon from the NRA's cold, dead hands.

Although the gun group unleashed everything in its arsenal to defeat Barack Obama and dozens of down ticket gun-control candidates, it lost by a margin as historic as the war chest it opened in an attempt to convince voters that Democrats were mortal enemies of the Second Amendment. Despite expending nearly $7 million in a national fear campaign, NRA-endorsed candidates lost 80 percent of their races against gun-control candidates. More than 90 percent of candidates endorsed by the NRA's nemesis, the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, won their races. If 2008 was, in the NRA's own words, "arguably the most important year in its history," then the election results suggest that the gun group is arguably the most overhyped and impotent special-interest lobby in the country. The NRA even got its chamber cleaned in its home state of Virginia.

The sweeping victory for gun control has been one of the most underreported stories of the election. This is largely because it was immediately overshadowed by the trendy postelection narrative of spiking gun sales and runs on assault weapons. In recent weeks, it seems as if every TV news program and newspaper in the country has featured some variation on the following story: Anxious Americans are cleaning out their local gun stores in anticipation of a.) Barack Obama's radical anti-gun agenda; b.) social chaos engendered by economic collapse; or c.) both.

No doubt thousands of paranoid gun owners have purchased Glocks and AR-15 assault rifles out of such fears. And it is true that the economic crisis has fueled an interest in personal protection and even Northern Idaho-style survivalism. But sensational stories about booming holiday-season gun sales obscure a more profound phenomenon: the coalescence of a new consensus, joined by the majority of the nation's gun owners, in favor of what gun controllers call "commonsense reform." A subtext of this phenomenon is the evaporation, first witnessed in 2006 and reinforced last month, of the idea that guns are a sure thing conservative wedge issue.

Nobody can accuse Obama of campaigning dishonestly on the issue of gun control. The nation's first modern urban president repeatedly explained that his understanding of the Second Amendment included the need for restrictions aimed at reducing gun violence, especially in the cities. In a sign that he intended to win on the issue by shooting straight with voters, he even mentioned his gun-control agenda during his Denver acceptance speech, challenging the idea that gun control was a third rail that guaranteed defeat in states like Ohio and Virginia.

As codified in his urban policy platform, Obama consistently advocated for increasing law enforcement's ability to trace guns by reinstituting tracking legislation repealed by the Bush administration; closing the famous "gun show loophole" that allows gun buyers to avoid background checks; mandating additional safety features on U.S.-manufactured guns; and resurrecting the expired ban on assault weapons and making it permanent.

Needless to say, every plank of this agenda is vigorously opposed by the NRA (spokespersons for whom did not return repeated requests for comment).

Gun control is not a front-burner issue for an incoming administration faced with economic crisis and two wars, but the NRA is right to be worried. Not only do Obama and Biden have strong gun control records, the incoming attorney general is a one-man gun control lobby unto himself. As deputy A.G. in the Clinton administration, Eric Holder advocated federal licensing requirements for handguns, a three-day waiting period on some gun sales and rationing handgun sales to no more than one per month. More recently, he signed an amicus brief in support of the District of Columbia's handgun ban when it came before the Supreme Court. The conservative site newsmax.com calls Holder a "gun control nightmare."

The NRA is going to have a hard time persuading America that it should awake from this nightmare. Not only do majorities support these strictures, the gun lobby recently lost one of its most effective arguments. When the Supreme Court decided in June in favor of individual gun rights in District of Colombia v. Heller, it settled the nagging question about whether the Constitution protected the right of an individual to own a gun, or whether that right only existed in the context of public militias. While in one sense Heller was a major victory for the gun lobby, it also deprived it of the legal ambiguity that allowed it to bludgeon gun owners with the idea that any gun-control law would inevitably lead to ATF SWAT teams -- or, in the case of NRA Executive Vice President Wayne LaPierre, U.N. blue helmets -- taking away all of their guns. Crucially, the decision, written by Justice Antonin Scalia, stated that "[l]ike most rights, the Second Amendment is not unlimited. It is not a right to keep and carry any weapon whatsoever in any manner whatsoever and for whatever purpose."
"Heller legally established the middle ground that we have long advocated," says Daniel R. Vice, senior attorney with the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence. "It basically said the government could regulate guns in public while guaranteeing the right to private ownership. It obliterates the NRA's 'slippery slope' argument that any gun law [could someday] lead to the government taking away your guns."

There is more bad news for the post-Charlton Heston NRA. Along with losing its scariest tactic and the aura of being able to swing elections (and thus scare Democrats away from championing gun control), it is also being challenged on its long-held assumption that it and it alone speaks for America's gun owners and hunters. A couple of years ago, the American Hunters and Sharpshooters Association was launched by Ray Schoenke, a pro-gun-control hunter, sportsman and liberal Democrat, to create an alternative home for those who support the Second Amendment as well as gun control. Along with advocating "commonsense" gun law reform, Schoenke's group backs strong environmental-protection laws in defense of hunting and fishing lands. The contradiction between the NRA's purported love of the outdoors lifestyle and its alliance with reactionary anti-environment politicians has long been the organization's soft underbelly, ripe for attack. Schoenke's group is going after it.

"I've been saying for years that Democrats shouldn't cede the gun vote to the NRA," says Schoenke. "There are over 80 million gun owners in the U.S., and fewer than 3 million belong to that group. They do not speak for all of us -- especially those of us who are Democrats, progressives and conservationists."

Not surprisingly, the NRA dismisses the AHSA as a sham left-wing project that gives cover to anti-gun politicians posing as friends of hunters. "[ASHA is nothing more than] an effort to mislead and divide the gun-owning community and to dilute gun owners' political impact," fumed an NRA blogger shortly before last month's election, when AHSA's Schoenke was touring states like Ohio and Minnesota in support of Barack Obama. "Anti-gun activists are creat[ing] new organizations with names designed to confuse gun owners and hide the real agenda."

While the AHSA does still have the feel of a letterhead organization, it is possible that it could one day begin to rival the NRA for membership and stature among gun owners. For the NRA, the realization that not all gun owners are Second Amendment absolutists who take NRA political ratings as voting guides must be maddening. The frustration will only deepen in the coming years, as commonsense gun-control legislation is crafted and passed with public support.

Until then, the NRA will continue to believe it speaks for America's gun owners, threatening its lobbying wrath on any politician who tries to restrict the right of Americans to buy and sell whatever guns they like, in secrecy and without a paper trail. As the new gun laws go into effect, the group can be expected to increase the pitch of its warnings about impending fascism and the dark shadow of the United Nations. The question is whether anybody will be listening.

[MicroBalrog]

Hopefully, they're right and the NRA has been dealt a blow.  Hopefully they'll learn from it.

[buzz_knox]

There is so much crap in that article that if it is right about anything, its a miracle.  The Brady's saying Heller supported their position?  That alone relegates this to "not worthy of even being bird cage material as it'd pollute the pet."

The NRA largely sat this one out.  It saw the writing on the wall on this election and is gearing up for the real fights to come. 

[Nitrogen]

Hopefully, they're right and the NRA has been dealt a blow.  Hopefully they'll learn from it.

Actually, while I agree with you, I think I disagree with the article.

I do think the NRA still has the same reach it always had, but other things helped negate that reach this election.
Really low presidential approval ratings for a Republican president; an economy in shambles, and a public that was tired of the divisive attacks from Republican mouthpiece orginizations, of which the NRA is a de-facto one.

In my eyes, people had other things they were worried about.  The economy, environmental policy, energy independence, war in Iraq, and that vague, hazy "change" seemed to be what people really cared about.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that its not that the NRA isn't a force to be reckoned with, it's just that other problems have eclipsed the pro or anti gun issues in this election.

I do hope that the NRA changes its game now; and abandons the Newt Gengrich style of in-your-face divisiveness; and tries to win over more liberals, and undecideds.  That's the only way we'll ever win is to get more gun owners.

[MechAg94]

1.  People had larger concerns on the economy and other stuff.  I don't think gun control was near the top of anyone's concerns except gun guys.  

2.  The gun rights groups have gotten victories over the last several years and that means a lot of average Joes stopped supporting the NRA and others.  That will change if they start trying to pass laws.  

3.  Also, the Republicans screwed the pooch and got people voting against them as much as for anyone else.  

Calling this a victory for gun control is like calling it a victory for guys born in Hawaii.  It means little.  We might see gun control get the upper hand, but it is due to other factors.

[French G.]

Not the NRA's fault. NRA and GOP Virginia did a good job with anti-gun Obama ads. The Dems have had the gun-rights penalty kill unit on the ice for years, they defused the gun rights vote by not being overtly anti-gun for the past few legislative sessions. Heller, no AWB made the picture for gun rights seem rosier and they weren't about to upset that apple cart. Throw in a few ASHA lies about sportsmen's rights which were well timed to the climate and the victory of non-attendance is complete. It will hopefully be different in 2010.

[Gewehr98]

NRA failure?

Yeah, right.

The NRA did what it could this last election, but their constituency (if you can call it that) is still but a mere fraction of the U.S. population, and that population was also quite concerned about their paychecks, mortgages, job security, The War, and other factors.

IOW, Americans had other fish to fry this time around.

[longeyes]

You will see "gun issues" come to the fore again, full force, as our society continues to fracture.  All the trends point to greater need for resisting governmental tyranny and enhanced self-defense.  The other issues of import relate to gun issues, and that will become obvious very soon.

[Standing Wolf]

One good thing about socialist so-called "thinking:" it gives even dumb people something to feel superior to.

[Gewehr98]

Before somebody else throws it in there...


Longeyes, you need to get a wheelbarrow before the SHTF. 

[Balog]

I do hope that the NRA changes its game now; and abandons the Newt Gengrich style of in-your-face divisiveness; and tries to win over more liberals, and undecideds.  That's the only way we'll ever win is to get more gun owners.

Great strategy. It worked so well for McCain......

[MicroBalrog]

Great strategy. It worked so well for McCain...... the conservatives in general...

Fixed.

[Monkeyleg]

Alternet.org? Must be some big-name journalists with heavy insights and connections in politics who write for that site.

The NRA still has the power if Obama tries to do something. Gun owners have been complacent the last eight years, but an AW ban or some other heavy-handed gun control measure will cost the Democrats control of congress, something I'm certain the Democrats are aware of.

[K Frame]

This was predicted in 1976 when Jimmy Carter won the election and BATF began an unprecedented reign of terror.

End result? Ronald Reagan and 2.5 million NRA members.

It was predicted again when Clinton won the 1992 election and we got the Brady Bill and Assault Weapons Ban.

End result? 4 million NRA members, Democrats lose Congress, then the 2000 election and states that had been Democratic for years, in part because of their stance on gun control.


Simply more crap from AHSA. It will never be more than a fringe organization of liars.

[Ben]

1) Look who the NRA had to work with as Obama's "gun friendly" rival.

2) Agree with Mike -- I think we'll see the NRA getting a lot of new members and money throughout the Obama Administration.

[RevDisk]

Death of the NRA?  Dude, the author seriously needs to go to a gun store and view the demographics of folks impulse buying firearms.   An extremely significant number of them are first time gun owners.   

[Manedwolf]

I do hope that the NRA changes its game now; and abandons the Newt Gengrich style of in-your-face divisiveness; and tries to win over more liberals, and undecideds.  That's the only way we'll ever win is to get more gun owners.

How, throw EBR owners under the bus?

[longeyes]

Longeyes, you need to get a wheelbarrow before the SHTF.

I have no idea what that means, but frankly I don't care.  I stand by what I said.  This is a time where RKBA will become more, not less important, NRA per se notwithstanding.

[Perd Hapley]

He's referring to long-time gun-board wacko, Gunkid (and all his other aliases), and his plans to use a wheelbarrow to haul his stuff around, when SHTF, TEOTWAWKI.


Guns were not an issue in this election.  Thus the article is bunk.  Simple as that. 

[Waitone]

Alternet is a fairly left slanted outfit.  I took the time to post the article because of a time honored technique of using cat's paws to launch the opening salvo of an attack.  A logical analysis of O'Bama's position would indicate he is well advised to steer clear of gun control.  Problem is we are not dealing with logical supporters.  We are dealing with emotional people who have felt used and abused for 8 years.  The messiah has just showed up and they are ready to remake the world in the messiah's image.  That image is just butt-ugly with respect to second amendment rights.  I thought the alternet analysis contained far too much wishful thinking but then again I approach the topic from a logical perspective.

[Ben]

Alternet is a fairly wacko left slanted outfit.

Fixed it for ya. :)

[Perd Hapley]

For the NRA, the realization that not all gun owners are Second Amendment absolutists who take NRA political ratings as voting guides must be maddening.

Yeah, I'm sure the NRA was really surprised to suddenly realize that, this November.       

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

Silly, silly journalists.  They think that they can make something true just by reporting on it.

[Tallpine]

the NRA is right to be worried. Not only do Obama and Biden have strong gun control records, the incoming attorney general is a one-man gun control lobby unto himself. As deputy A.G. in the Clinton administration, Eric Holder advocated federal licensing requirements for handguns, a three-day waiting period on some gun sales and rationing handgun sales to no more than one per month. More recently, he signed an amicus brief in support of the District of Columbia's handgun ban when it came before the Supreme Court. The conservative site newsmax.com calls Holder a "gun control nightmare."

So ... Obama wasn't going to take our guns during the campaign, but now he is - so which is it

Like we didn't see that coming  :rolleyes:

[longeyes]

Well, if they really want to push gun control rather than criminal control, they are welcome to play that card.  I doubt it will really work for them in the end.  My view is that they are only going to exacerbate racial and ethnic tensions in the country by trying to pretend that crime is a gun issue rather than a culture issue.