Author Topic: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...  (Read 46478 times)

Bogie

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #75 on: December 26, 2008, 02:04:15 PM »
So, if we use fossil fuels Really Fast, we'll get a 30' wall of water through New York and Los Angeles?
 
Cool...
 
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Gewehr98

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #76 on: December 26, 2008, 06:07:09 PM »
Quote
On a whim, I decided to wander over to APS today. I haven't been here in ... years. (I spend most of my time at THR & MoF.) I really didn't like the vibe here when I enrolled a long time ago, so left and haven't been back.

But, out of curiosity, thought I'd stop by. What was I thinking? (Rhetorical question.)

I'm already sorry I did. I can see I run the risk of getting caught up in this thread because the topic is one that is not only of personal interest to me, but that I've dealt with professionally for years as an educator.

I was going to say "Welcome, Nem!", but it appears that would be something of a waste after reading the above monologue.  APS is what you make of it - remember that.  Hopping into a forum and calling folks "flat earthers" probably won't endear you to the membership and staff, nor will stating the above...   =|
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Bogie

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #77 on: December 26, 2008, 07:46:11 PM »
I'm still waiting for that 30' wall of water through LA and NYC...
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MechAg94

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #78 on: December 26, 2008, 07:51:09 PM »
So are exact predictions of temperature rise defined as "weather" or "climate"? 
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cassandra and sara's daddy

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #79 on: December 26, 2008, 07:54:12 PM »
depends weather they support the position du jour
It is much more powerful to seek Truth for one's self.  Seeing and hearing that others seem to have found it can be a motivation.  With me, I was drawn because of much error and bad judgment on my part. Confronting one's own errors and bad judgment is a very life altering situation.  Confronting the errors and bad judgment of others is usually hypocrisy.


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MechAg94

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #80 on: December 26, 2008, 07:56:42 PM »
Was Nem's post intended to be satire? 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

cassandra and sara's daddy

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #81 on: December 26, 2008, 07:58:52 PM »
oh  hes very serious 
brings to mind that line from bernard shaw everytime i hear "i'm an educator"
It is much more powerful to seek Truth for one's self.  Seeing and hearing that others seem to have found it can be a motivation.  With me, I was drawn because of much error and bad judgment on my part. Confronting one's own errors and bad judgment is a very life altering situation.  Confronting the errors and bad judgment of others is usually hypocrisy.


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Nematocyst

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #82 on: December 26, 2008, 11:05:13 PM »
Quote from: gunsmith
... & I get totally ignored, on Christmas Day too! cheesy

Gunsmith, I'm sincerely sorry for my omission. I read and appreciated your post, and really intended to acknowledge your kind words. Call it brain flatulence. I just spaced it.

Scout, thanks also for the welcome.

G'ster, my friend, thanks much for the lengthy PM clarifying your position. I appreciate your candor and your clarification of your position.

G'98, I accept your criticism of my attitude in my first post above.

Quote
APS is what you make of it - remember that.

Point well taken. So far, I'll admit that I was wrong about what's going on at APS. My experience a couple of years ago was sufficiently negative that it (probably unfairly) colored my expectations. (You should know that I'm not the only THR person that had negative experiences and hasn't been back since.) I confess I came in dragging an attitude and unfairly laid out expectations.

I apologize for that. Clearly the staff and membership have done a great job of ... um, improving the tone of the space. (I've been discussing that a bit with Cosine via PM.) I'm impressed and encouraged.

And, yes, I'll confess, I've developed a flinch from being jumped on vehemently so often when taking the position that I do on this issue. It will affect one after a while, despite best intentions.

And please understand, I'm trying deliberately not to paint with a broad brush about "flat earthers". I don't put all who disagree with the theory into that category, although there are some (not necessarily here) who deserve the label. (Maybe another day, I'll try to explain my position on that.)

CSDaddy, yes, I am an educator, and I make no apologies for it. ;)

However, I'm confident that GB Shaw would not lump me in his disdained group of that profession, particularly given that I agree with this statement by him which I assume is the one to which you were referring:

Quote
Simply because our education is not controversial, which means that as it is a hundred years out of date on all open questions, reforms have to come from the uneducated who suffer from the facts and know nothing of the books.

The only word I'd quibble with is "uneducated". There is an important distinction between "uneducated" and "self-educated". Some of the most brilliant & knowledgeable people I've ever known have been self-educated.

I have major issues with mainstream science and mathematics education in the US, from secondary to grad schools. Much of what they teach IS at least decades out of date. (Don't get me started.) Which is precisely why I'm NOT part of mainstream ed system any longer, but am an independent educator teaching cutting edge stuff (almost all Nobel laureate driven), much of which I've taught myself after 20 years of being force fed the standard science dogma. In that regard, I, too, am self-educated.

Of course, the benefit of having been fed a steady diet of standard dogma for decades prior to now is that I am better able to understand the flaws in the old models, and to therefore better understand why the IPCC continues to underestimate the severity of the issue at hand: the vast majority of those IPCC scientists are trained in the classical science approaches with roots in the 19th and early 20th century that are now known to be incorrect, and that lead to a picture of nature as relatively tame and controllable. It is not.

The new models that have been emerging for the past several decades - the ones that have not yet filtered down into the undergraduate curriculum, let alone high school - paints a very different picture of how nature works with which I suspect Shaw would have resonated.

But that's a conversation for another day.
_____________

I hope you are all warm & dry, and I thank you for your hospitality, and your invitation to hang out a while.

I'll try my best to be respectful despite my punk genes.

Right now, it's dinner time.

Nem



« Last Edit: December 26, 2008, 11:30:24 PM by Nematocyst »
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gunsmith

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #83 on: December 27, 2008, 03:36:31 AM »
Quote
the vast majority of those IPCC scientists are trained in the classical science approaches with roots in the 19th and early 20th century that are now known to be incorrect, and that lead to a picture of nature as relatively tame and controllable. It is not.

Exactly my feeling, it seems as if what could be described as reasonable people are unaware of "nature red in tooth and claw"

They think they will play in the tundra with polar bear cubs and wolf pups, as long as they pray to the recycle bin.
That people think we can control weather (climate ) really appalls me.

Kids today are being brainwashed with green ideology
They will gladly pay their indulgences  oops I mean carbon offsets to Al Gore so he can plant a tree and burn fossils in his private jet while the proletariat pollute the next generation with their green bulbs full of mercury, great ideas from the same people that scolded "save a tree" by getting rid of recyclable tree products in favor of plastic.

Nem, I trust you completely, its Michael Moore and Al Gore that I Know are up to no good.



The people selling carbon indulgences have never had a scientific thought in their life, their goal is plain corrupt power.
They want me to lead an Anthem ( Ayn Rand novel ) like existence, reading my instructions for the day by candlelight
while they dine on grilled Salmon flying on a private jet.
« Last Edit: December 27, 2008, 03:40:20 AM by gunsmith »
Politicians and bureaucrats are considered productive if they swarm the populace like a plague of locust, devouring all substance in their path and leaving a swath of destruction like a firestorm. The technical term is "bipartisanship".
Rocket Man: "The need for booster shots for the immunized has always been based on the science.  Political science, not medical science."

WhiteTiger

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #84 on: December 27, 2008, 08:54:39 AM »
Just to stir the pot a bit I offer the following link. Solar system warming, not just earth.

For a bunch that can't even manage a base on our own satellite we seem to be doing a bang up job of exporting our greenhouse gases,  eh?



Tiger

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #85 on: December 27, 2008, 09:54:40 AM »
while they dine on grilled farm raisedSalmon flying on a private jet.
It is much more powerful to seek Truth for one's self.  Seeing and hearing that others seem to have found it can be a motivation.  With me, I was drawn because of much error and bad judgment on my part. Confronting one's own errors and bad judgment is a very life altering situation.  Confronting the errors and bad judgment of others is usually hypocrisy.


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Scout26

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #86 on: December 27, 2008, 06:12:20 PM »
Just to stir the pot a bit I offer the following link. Solar system warming, not just earth.

For a bunch that can't even manage a base on our own satellite we seem to be doing a bang up job of exporting our greenhouse gases,  eh?
Tiger

I would link to the source NASA, et al. documents instead of a site that has 9/11 Troofer crap as the top banner and features a video predicting TEOTWAKI .....  Might be a little more credible. 
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WhiteTiger

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #87 on: December 27, 2008, 07:29:32 PM »
I assumed this crowd has the smarts and energy to verify the source materials cited in that link. "Credibility" is about the material, not the source, imo.

The original sources for all those quotes are easy to run down. I did it, presumably anyone else actually interested in the topic can too ;)



Tiger

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #88 on: December 27, 2008, 08:00:27 PM »
So, if we use fossil fuels Really Fast, we'll get a 30' wall of water through New York and Los Angeles?
 
Cool...

Cool when can we start?  =D
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doczinn

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #89 on: December 27, 2008, 10:27:18 PM »
When the answer, invariably, is more government control, I don't care what the question is.
D. R. ZINN

gunsmith

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #90 on: December 28, 2008, 12:01:07 AM »
while they dine on grilled farm raisedSalmon flying on a private jet.

Wild is far better for you, I guess you mean that there will be no more wild?
Politicians and bureaucrats are considered productive if they swarm the populace like a plague of locust, devouring all substance in their path and leaving a swath of destruction like a firestorm. The technical term is "bipartisanship".
Rocket Man: "The need for booster shots for the immunized has always been based on the science.  Political science, not medical science."

Nematocyst

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Is the rest of the solar system also heating?
« Reply #91 on: December 28, 2008, 03:52:59 AM »
In short, no.

Here are a couple of sources of info.

One.
Two.

There are others. Just dig a bit.

Summary.

There are around 100 other sizeable objects in our solar system, none of which have the same orbital periodicity as Earth (i.e., their  orbit takes other than one year). Most are much longer.

Less than a dozen are heating.

We have only a few years of data for most of them.
Mars is the exception. We have a few decades of data for it.
That of course is not even close to the millions of years of data we have for Earth.

Most of those are heating on the other bodies is because they are now getting closer to the sun in their elliptical orbits.
No surprise they're warming up. (Duh.)

Yes, Earth also has an elliptical orbit, and changes in the shape of the ellipse do trigger climate changes here. That's related to the Millankovitch cycles I wrote of above. However, here, they don't "cause" climate change, only trigger it. On other "planets" with simpler dynamics, the orbital effects themselves cause the changes more directly.

The notable exception is Mars. Up until a decade or so again, winds there were keeping dust stirred up. Dust is an aerosol that reflects sunlight, cooling the planet. Now, for reasons that I don't think are understood, winds are dying down, dust settling, and the cooling effect is being reduced, so it's heating.

The bigger issues are that Earth's climate regulation system is orders of magnitude more complex than that of other solar system bodies, and cannot - underscore, CANNOT - be explained in terms of physics and chemistry alone. The biosphere plays an integral role here, unlike other bodies where there appears to be no life. There, heating and cooling are determined by physics and chemistry alone, and the processes are much simpler.

« Last Edit: December 28, 2008, 04:16:43 AM by Nematocyst »
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Nematocyst

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #92 on: December 28, 2008, 04:11:07 AM »
Earlier in the thread, I wrote:
Quote
the vast majority of those IPCC scientists are trained in the classical science approaches with roots in the 19th and early 20th century that are now known to be incorrect, and that lead to a picture of nature as relatively tame and controllable. It is not.

Gunsmith responded:
Quote
Exactly my feeling, it seems as if what could be described as reasonable people are unaware of "nature red in tooth and claw"

I agree. Somehow, we've convinced ourselves that we are "in control" of nature.

Some religions allege that it was put here for us (therefore, we must be in control.)

Some environmentalists refer to us as "stewards" of Earth.

This is simply hubris. We have deluded ourselves. We are drunk with the illusion of power.

I've written above of Fred Pearce's book With Speed and Violence.
He addresses this issue this way in his introduction (page xxiv).
The remainder of his book backs this statement up in spades.

Quote
“Nature is fragile, environmentalists often tell us. But the lesson of this book is that is not so. The truth is far more worrying. Nature is strong & packs a serious counterpunch ... Global warming will very probably unleash unstoppable planetary forces. And they will not be gradual. The history of our planet's climate shows that it does not do gradual change. Under pressure, whether from sunspots or orbital wobbles or the depredations of humans, it lurches – virtually overnight.”
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Ben

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #93 on: December 28, 2008, 12:17:35 PM »
Quote
Earth's climate regulation system is orders of magnitude more complex than that of other solar system bodies

Actually I would submit that historical Venusian atmosphere and climate are at least as complex as Earth's.
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El Tejon

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #94 on: December 28, 2008, 04:10:55 PM »
I want my water wall and I want it now! =D

Latin America, take them (New York and L.A.) away!

Freedom!  The wall of water will bring me my freedom back!

Wall!  Wall!  Wall!
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grampster

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #95 on: December 28, 2008, 07:49:51 PM »
"Some religions allege that it was put here for us (therefore, we must be in control.)"[/u]

Uhhh, that's a stretch, methinks.  I don't believe my faith teaches "control".  I'm a Christian.  My type of environmentalism is that our surroundings are ours to exploit.  That exploitation need not be pillage and rape of the resource, however.
I prefer the word manage.  The group that I chair manages the resource, a lake we live on, for the use of the riparians and the public that use the lake.

An example:   The lake is 800 acres.  It is considered hyper-eutrophic.  That means it is generally shallow, silty and warm containing a lot of vegetation.  The lake is at the end of its life.  Perhaps in another hundred years, if left to its own devices, it would be a swamp.

The lake became infested with a non native species of vegetation, Eurasian water milfoil.  It grows very rapidly.  A 15% infestation in September will be 35% by late spring and would take over the lake in a couple of years.  Milfoil crowds out most other species of vegetation and it mats on the surface blocking sunlight and making the lake impassible for boating.  Lots of bad things result from that.

We use a lakewide treatment using a chemical called floridone to kill the milfoil. At about 6-8 parts per billion it causes Eurasion milfoil to not be able to produce chlorophyll.  The stuff is harmless to fish, critters and humans.  At 6-8 parts per billion the milfoil starves but the native plants are not affected.  Native plants are now able to reestablish themselves.  The native plants are good for the resource as filters and fish cover.  We plant pan fish, pike and fathead minnows as forage.  We encourage the halting of fertilizing around the lake, not putting grass clipping and leaves into the lake.  Keeping septic systems pumped and up to date.  We have just started a program to have riparians plant deep rooted native shore line plants to take up runoff and nutrient loading from septic systems.  We have been exploring a sewer system.  (Currently too pricey.)  We paid for a program to kill gypsy moths which can destroy the oak forest that surrounds the lake. We have partnered with the county road commission to inhibit runoff from the roads around the lake.

As a result the lake is beautiful.  Property values are stable or growing.  It has a great bass, pike and pan fishery.  People canoe and kayak on the lake.  Pontoon boats cruise.  Water skiing is popular.  There are times when it's just pleasing to look at.  In other words, people have entered into an agreement with each other to protect/manage our resource so that we may use it in many ways. 

  There are some who would not do as we do; they just don't care about taking care of it.  Others would prohibit humans from even using the lake; let nature take its toll.

My point is not about the lake specifically.  The point is about resources in general.  We can exploit them carefully for our benefit, doing some good along the way, or crap in our beds, or worse yet, cause our culture to stop or move backwards because some fools or opportunists among us believe we shouldn't be able to use the resources we have.  To think that humans are the be all/end all with respect to a planet is arrogance in my opinion.  We should find ways to reduce harm, certainly.  But to give way to some of the opportunistic mythology and dogma that has gained a foothold, with respect to climate does more harm than good.

It is good to pay attention to what credible people have to say.  But once they start selling a bill of goods that sounds a bit counterproductive, then cooler heads should prevail.  That is especially when the few sellers of the bill of goods are trying to subject the masses to bellicose control while ignoring huge examples of already nasty folks who are raping, pillaging and otherwise trampling all over, well, everything.
« Last Edit: December 28, 2008, 10:32:09 PM by grampster »
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Nematocyst

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #96 on: December 28, 2008, 11:06:15 PM »
Quote
Actually I would submit that historical Venusian atmosphere and climate are at least as complex as Earth's.

Ben, I'd like to read how you justify that assertion.

If there's no life on Venus - and there's no evidence otherwise - then the climate system can't be as complex there. Its climate is determined by the forces of physics and chemistry alone.

Adding life - biological systems - to the mix complexifies a climate by orders of magnitude.

Quote
I prefer the word manage.

A semantic quibble, G'ster. "Manage" is a form of control.

Here's one definition of "manage" : to direct or be in charge of (e.g., an organization); to handle or control, to force; to succeed at an attempt: he managed to climb the tower.

Here's another: Management comprises planning, organizing, staffing, leading or directing, and controlling an organization (a group of one or more people or entities) or effort for the purpose of accomplishing a goal.

If there is not an element of control, one can't manage a system.

Call it what you want: if one attempts to manage something, one is attempting to control it's behavior.

We've long thought that we (humans) are in control of nature. Modern western science has largely been an exercise in learning enough about how nature works so that we can make accurate predictions about how it will behave under certain conditions. That's necessary because if one can't predict the dynamics of a system, one can't control it, or manage it, or whatever.

What we're now learning the hard way (with much more soon to come) is that we have no control over the climate system. Have we effected it? You bet. Will we continue to effect it? You bet.

Can we manage or control it, to make it do what we want it to do? No way.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2008, 12:28:13 AM by Nematocyst »
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Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #97 on: December 28, 2008, 11:27:00 PM »

If there's no life on Venus - and there's no evidence otherwise - then the climate system can't be as complex there. Its climate is determined by the forces of physics and chemistry alone.

Adding life - biological systems - to the mix complexifies a climate by orders of magnitude.

The AGW myth depends on exactly this sort of assumption.  Your assertion unproven at best, and quite probably unprovable, at least under current technology.

So now it's my turn to ask you to justify your beliefs.  I'd love to read a compelling argument that biological life is a prerequisite for a volatile climate.  I'd settle for a compelling argument that life "complexifies" climate by orders of magnitude. 

What we're now learning the hard way (with much more soon to come) is that we have no control over the climate system. Have we effected it? You bet. Will we continue to effect it? You bet.

Can we manage or control it, to make it do what we want it to do? No way.
If what you say is correct, then this whole AGW proposition is utter horse manure.  All we can do is hold on for the ride, to prepare and adapt as best we can.  Decimating our standard of living and tossing away our liberties, all for the sake of policies intended to do the impossible, is folly. 
« Last Edit: December 29, 2008, 05:22:23 PM by Headless Thompson Gunner »

Nematocyst

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #98 on: December 29, 2008, 12:39:41 AM »
Quote
So now it's my turn to ask you to justify your beliefs.  I'd love to read a compelling argument that biological life is a prerequisite for a volatile climate.  I'd settle for a compelling argument that life "complexifies" climate by orders of magnitude. 

First, the word "volatile" is yours. I didn't use it in my response to Ben. (Neither did Ben.)

My point is, again, adding life to a planet complexifies its climate system.

A complex system is complex by virtue of being composed of more parts with more connections than a less complex system.

The reasoning is simple. Venus and Mars have no life (again, no evidence of any on either planet). Therefore their climate is controlled entirely by the laws of physics and chemistry.

Earth, on the other hand, obviously has life on it. It's climate is thus controlled by the laws of physics, chemistry AND biology. There are far more parts to the climate system here - those organisms - and they are linked to the inorganic components of air, water and rocks in complex ways. Thus the system is more complex.

For a simple example, the main carbon dioxide removal system on Earth involves marine algae like coccolithophores, diatoms and actinopods. They incorporate calcium carbonate (mineralized carbon dioxide) into their shells. When they die, they sink to the ocean bottom, building up as limestone and chalk, removing carbon from the system. That effects climate by removing a greenhouse gas, which cools the planet.

(How else do you think all that CO2 from volcanoes got removed for hundreds of millions of years?)

Likewise, methane is a waste product of methanogens AKA methane generating bacteria.

Both carbon dioxide and methane effect temperature of a planet, which strongly effect its climate since climate is effectively a heat engine: heat drives weather systems.

Not to mention the presence of O2 in the atmosphere, which can ONLY be explained by the presence of photosynthesis by plants, algae and photosynthetic bacteria.

Without living systems, climate on Earth would be much simpler.

For more on how life effects climate, read this.
(We've suggested that you do so previously. This would be a lot easier if you would just do some reading.)

Quote
All we can do is hold on for the ride, to prepare and adapt as best we can.

At this point, that is correct.

A century ago, those policies of which you speak could have prevented what is now inevitable.

Now, the system is already turning. It's too late to stop it in time.
Like a truck doing 70 on I-95, even slamming on the brakes,
it will require time to stop, but it's already too close to the bridge abutment.

This is why in an earlier post, I criticized Gore and company for advocating policy changes
that they contend will stop warming, and stop climate change.
They will NOT. Change is now inevitable. 

Hold on. Hope you're wearing a seat belt.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2008, 01:52:20 AM by Nematocyst »
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GigaBuist

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Re: 'cooling trend illustrates how fast the world is warming'...
« Reply #99 on: December 29, 2008, 01:25:28 AM »
Quote
Without living systems, climate on Earth would be much simpler.

Agreed, but unless that are major shifts in composition of life on planet Earth they should be pretty predictable.  Right?

Quote
For more on how life effects climate, read this.
(We've suggested that you do so previously. This would be a lot easier if you would just do some reading.)

I skimmed it.  Looks like a story of how we've realized that climate change is occurring.  A notable lack of numbers and such which means it has no real meaning to me.  Not saying the info is inaccurate, just that I like concrete numbers and such when making decisions.  Show me the numbers, I can handle 'em.

Earth's been warming up since the last ice age, long before we all started driving SUVs. 

I'm skeptical of the "man made global warming will kill us all!" message.  Grew up being told that acid rain would do us in if we didn't all get skin cancer when the ozone layer went away.  Didn't happen.  Was told we'd be out of oil in 50 years 20 years ago, but nobody really thinks we're going to be devoid of oil in 30 years today.

Remember the boy that cried wolf?  I don't pay much attention to his pleas anymore.