Author Topic: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal  (Read 12676 times)

Monkeyleg

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Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« on: June 02, 2009, 09:51:16 AM »
I've been reading about the GM bankruptcy filing, and the deal that Obama got the parties to agree to.

As I understand it, the bond holders had $27 billion invested in the company, and they've agreed to a 10% equity stake in the new company. The UAW is making $10 billion in concessions and in return is getting a 17.5% stake. Is $27 billion>$10 billion, or am I really terrible at math?

Also, this section of a Wall Street Journal article struck me:

Quote
Bondholders had until Saturday evening to voice support for a new offer that would give them a 10% share of the restructured company and warrants for another 15%.

An ad hoc committee representing major bondholders agreed to support the offer and encouraged other big investors to back the deal. A group of dissident bondholders represented by Thomas Lauria, also a lawyer for holdouts in the Chrysler case, fought against the deal. He argued that small, individual bondholders were left with no voice as the Treasury negotiated directly with GM's large institutional holders.

It was up to Treasury, which brokered the deal, to determine whether enough bondholders agreed for the offer to stand. A spokesman for the bondholder committee said approximately 54% of the bonds have indicated their support and that 975 institutions either sent support letters or gave indications of support.

The government sweetened the offer last week after bondholders overwhelmingly rejected an earlier proposal that would have left them with 10% equity in the new GM.

Analysts' estimates have bondholders coming out of the new deal with around 10 cents on the dollar, compared to as little as nothing under the old offer.

It sounds to me as though the administration initially offered the bond holders a deal that really, really stunk, but then "sweetened" it to where it only stunk.

Ten cents on the dollar. I guess the Chrysler bond holders got beat up so bad that it was easy to get the bond holders for GM to take 10 cents instead of the 29 cents the Chrysler bond holders held out for.

What happened? Did Geithner hold a gun to the bond holders' heads while Obama assured them that their brains or their signatures would be on the new agreement?

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longeyes

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2009, 09:58:25 AM »
The bondholders should have been paid back first.  But that was the old economics, the old contract law, the old America.

You are wasting your time analyzing these "deals" in traditional economic terms.  They are politically and ideologically driven.  The concept of shareholders and debtors has been replaced by social "stakeholders," as clearly articulated by our President yesterday. Capital is being humbled before labor here; that's the philosophy of the people in power.  I guess they believe that capital doesn't come from labor because in the end they don't really believe in what we have called savings and investment.  Their idea of "investment" is to spend taxpayer's money and their idea of "savings" is jobs that haven't been lost, yet.  People who have been foolish enough to save and invest are going to see their wealth transferred to more favored groups, groups more amenable to state control.
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makattak

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2009, 10:03:41 AM »
Now, I want to make it clear that I am not absolving the current administration or congress for their actions in this. They are fully responsible for this atrocity.

However, I can't help but think:

Thank you, President Bush, for delaying these bankruptcies so that the Obama administration gets to decide them rather than what the law says.

Thanks for "abandoning the free market in order to save it". Great way to end your presidency.
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RevDisk

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2009, 10:15:29 AM »
What happened? Did Geithner hold a gun to the bond holders' heads while Obama assured them that their brains or their signatures would be on the new agreement?

No, Chrysler bondholders were personally threatened, not GM bondholders.  One specific holdout was "was directly threatened by the White House and in essence compelled to withdraw its opposition to the deal under the threat that the full force of the White House press corps would destroy its reputation if it continued to fight."  AFAIK, no threats were directly made to GM bondholders.  Current wisdom is that GM bondholders saw the beating the Chrysler bondholders took, and just cut their losses.


GM stock has been delisted from the Dow and NYSE.  It's now trading as GMGMQ on the penny market.  If you owned GM stock, it will be worthless either now or in a short period of time.  Current shareholders will get nothing from the bankruptcy court.
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Clem

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2009, 10:19:17 AM »
This is really very simple. It is Chicago politics writ large, very large. Bond holders get screwed. The UAW makes out like a bandit. The guys who drove the company into the ground now get to pick up the pieces. Sweet! The Dems buy off the UAW with taxpayer money and get it back into their campaign coffers laundered and ready for the next campaign.

longeyes

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2009, 10:26:16 AM »
Follow the money.  Indeed.  See how much of the money goes from taxpayers back to the Democratic machine.

Meanwhile, here's Ralph Nader's take on the whole mess:

"Today's bankruptcy declaration in federal court by General Motors is an avoidable, crude weapon of mass devastation for workers, dealers, auto suppliers, small businesses and their depleted communities. For GM's voiceless owners -- the common shareholders -- it is a wipeout.

The proximate cause of the bankruptcy was supposed to be the inability of GM and the government's auto task force to reach an accommodation with GM's bondholders. But late last week, the bondholder problem was moving toward rapid resolution, and was clearly resolvable. Why then are GM and its multibillion government financier proceeding with bankruptcy?

The bankruptcy and the GM restructuring plan are the product of a secretive, unaccountable, Wall Street-minded government task force that assumed power because of a Congressional abdication of historic magnitude. By all rights, the restructuring plan should have been submitted to Congress for deliberative review and decision.

There is little doubt that GM's chronic mismanagement and the deep recession require restructuring and scaling back the auto giant. But the bankruptcy and restructuring plan appear poised to do so in ways that will needlessly harm the stakeholders meant to be helped by Washington's rescue of GM?

Many, many jobs will be lost that could be preserved. There is reason to question whether too many plants and brands are being closed -- a matter that should have been taken up in Congress. Just the closing of hundreds of (GM and Chrysler) dealerships will cost more than 100,000 jobs. These sacrificed jobs will fray communities and impose enormous expenses on government entities that will have to provide unemployment and social relief, while suffering lost tax revenues.

The unionized workforce will see the wage and benefit structure slashed -- even though auto manufacturer wages make up less than 10 percent of the cost of a car -- so that new jobs at GM will no longer be a ticket to the middle class. This will drag down the wage structure of the entire auto industry -- exactly the wrong direction for the country.

America's manufacturing base will be further eroded, as GM pursues its Grand China Strategy -- increasing manufacturing outside of the United States, and increasingly from China, for import back into the United States. Unanswered questions persist about how GM's valuable operations in China, and unrepatriated profits, will be treated in bankruptcy, or excluded from bankruptcy.

Victims of defective GM products may find themselves with no legal avenue to pursue justice. In the Chrysler bankruptcy, with complete disregard for the real human lives involved, the Obama task force and auto company have maneuvered effectively to extinguish the product liability claims of victims of defective cars.

In a worst case scenario for the GM bankruptcy -- involving an extended court proceeding or severe impairment of consumer confidence in the GM brand -- all of these problems will be magnified. Again, given the path to resolution with the bondholders, this is an avoidable gamble.

The GM/task force bankruptcy plans appear geared to saving the General Motors entity -- but at a harsh and often avoidable cost to workers, communities, suppliers, consumers, dealers, and the nation's manufacturing capacity. It will also prove to be a complex political nightmare for President Obama.

With the company entering bankruptcy, the next challenge will be to ensure that the government exercises its ownership rights to undo and mitigate, to the extent possible, these damages. Among other measures, this should involve revisiting the serious drag-down, concessionary wage terms imposed on the United Auto Workers; demanding a moratorium on GM's outsourcing of production of cars for sale in the United States; and establishing successorship liability for the new GM, so that victims of dangerous and defective GM cars can have their day in court."
"Domari nolo."

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Standing Wolf

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2009, 12:04:38 PM »
Quote
You are wasting your time analyzing these "deals" in traditional economic terms.  They are politically and ideologically driven.  The concept of shareholders and debtors has been replaced by social "stakeholders," as clearly articulated by our President yesterday. Capital is being humbled before labor here; that's the philosophy of the people in power.  I guess they believe that capital doesn't come from labor because in the end they don't really believe in what we have called savings and investment.  Their idea of "investment" is to spend taxpayer's money and their idea of "savings" is jobs that haven't been lost, yet.  People who have been foolish enough to save and invest are going to see their wealth transferred to more favored groups, groups more amenable to state control.

Well said, longeyes!

I wonder how many more dozens of billions of dollars we, the people are going to be required to pour into General Motors before it completely collapses. So-called "redistribution of the wealth" always ends up enriching the state, impoverishing the people.
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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2009, 01:44:03 PM »
This is really very simple. It is Chicago politics writ large, very large. Bond holders get screwed. The UAW makes out like a bandit. The guys who drove the company into the ground now get to pick up the pieces. Sweet! The Dems buy off the UAW with taxpayer money and get it back into their campaign coffers laundered and ready for the next campaign.

Ding ding ding!  Let there be a winner!!
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seeker_two

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2009, 05:08:10 PM »
No, Chrysler bondholders were personally threatened, not GM bondholders.  One specific holdout was "was directly threatened by the White House and in essence compelled to withdraw its opposition to the deal under the threat that the full force of the White House press corps would destroy its reputation if it continued to fight."  AFAIK, no threats were directly made to GM bondholders.  Current wisdom is that GM bondholders saw the beating the Chrysler bondholders took, and just cut their losses.



I wondered if the Obama Administration threatened bondholders and creditiors with a big steaming bowl of "alphabet-agency soup" (IRS, SEC, EPA, etc.) if they didn't swallow the gov't deal....this pretty well confirms it....

Fascist gov't with a Chi-town twist....that's what we can look forward to over the next four years....
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Monkeyleg

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2009, 06:19:51 PM »
I just heard that Saturn and Hummer are being sold off, and that the Chinese are interested in Hummer.

Imagine. American jobs being lost to the Chinese to produce a formerly American vehicle.

The government owning GM isn't going to work, and most people don't think it will work. So why again are we spending billions to do this?

Waitone

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2009, 07:23:45 PM »
Not to fear.  GM will at long last produce the cars The American People really need (didn't say 'want"). 
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lupinus

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2009, 07:29:30 PM »
Quote
So why again are we spending billions to do this?
So we can feel all warm and fuzzy inside?
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brimic

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2009, 08:56:51 PM »
Quote
Quote
So why again are we spending billions to do this?
So we can feel all warm and fuzzy inside?

Nyet Comrade.
 The spending was to take over a huge portion of America's industrial capabilities. The Banks are next. Obama and his thugs are not allowing the banks to return the TARP money given to them.

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Monkeyleg

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2009, 11:21:27 PM »
Our local conservative talk show host did a segment this afternoon on the nationalization of GM. He made the point that, if someone would have told him a year ago that the government would own GM, he would have said they were nuts. The speed at which Obama is moving is alarming. What's even more alarming is that nobody seems upset.

longeyes

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #14 on: June 03, 2009, 12:04:40 AM »
It will end with our being TOLD what cars we can buy.  How else can those who know command those who don't, for their best interest, of course?

I wouldn't say no one's upset.  The people who count--meaning those who aren't asleep--are very upset.
"Domari nolo."

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longeyes

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #15 on: June 03, 2009, 12:08:16 AM »
Addendum about no one appearing to be "upset."

I think what's going on is that a lot of Americans are in shock.  They didn't expect this and have never seen anything like it.  It's political shock and awe, a blitzkrieg maneuver. 

It's the kind of emotional paralysis you see with abused spouses.  Will it last?  I highly doubt it, but sometimes it takes a lot of contusion before people finally get the message. 
"Domari nolo."

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Scout26

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2009, 12:13:36 AM »
It's more and more like "Atlas Shrugged", only I think it will have a violent ending/beginning.
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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #17 on: June 03, 2009, 02:16:36 AM »
likening it to a battered spouse is fairly spot-on. And along with that, please remember that it takes a battered spouse an average of 7 attempts before actually making good on leaving their abuser...

 How does that connect? Expect several "mini revolts" before America gets serious...
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De Selby

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2009, 05:31:56 AM »
Violating the bondholder contracts is unAmerican, not like it's supposed to be.

Violating the Union contract is what should have been done all along.

What is it about the two contracts that makes one sacred, and the other not a contract at all?
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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2009, 07:25:36 AM »
I just heard that Saturn and Hummer are being sold off, and that the Chinese are interested in Hummer.

Imagine. American jobs being lost to the Chinese to produce a formerly American vehicle.

The government owning GM isn't going to work, and most people don't think it will work. So why again are we spending billions to do this?

Go up to Clem's post.....I fully agree...it's payback to the UAW for helping elect democrats....
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brimic

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #20 on: June 03, 2009, 08:32:38 AM »
Hopefully in the near future the UAW's job training program will be :

Repeat after me "You want fries with that"

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Monkeyleg

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #21 on: June 03, 2009, 10:29:25 AM »
No, Brimic, they would have to learn to say, "nin xu mai qi che?" (You want buy car?).

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #22 on: June 03, 2009, 11:45:23 AM »
Violating the bondholder contracts is unAmerican, not like it's supposed to be.

Violating the Union contract is what should have been done all along.

What is it about the two contracts that makes one sacred, and the other not a contract at all?

One was freely chosen, one was coerced through intimidation and .gov interference?

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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2009, 01:08:40 PM »
One was freely chosen, one was coerced through intimidation and .gov interference?

There was gov't interference when GM took the easy way out and caved to the union?
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Re: Trying to understand the GM bankruptcy deal
« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2009, 02:33:46 PM »
There was gov't interference when GM took the easy way out and caved to the union?

Well, considering that both fed & state law grant much power to the unions even before anyone gets to the negotiation table, yes.

Regards,

roo_ster

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