Passage in the senate ain't a done deal.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1109/29798.html
Far too many fault lines in the senate much less the house for anything to be certain.
This has been said all along about the legislation. All the whining and knashing of teeth: "This is going to be so difficult to pass. Too many representatives disagree with all or part of the bill." And yet the House managed to get the original version through almost painlessly on a Saturday evening with almost every member present. The close vote was a consequence of the members looking for political cover come November 2010.
Now the Senate has voted to start debate, again with little fanfare (and a few bribes) on a Saturday night. Mark my words: once debate starts, it will be over in a week, and the same tools that voted to start debate will vote for the bill in its current incarnation. Then it's on to reconciliation.
To believe otherwise is to be whistling past the graveyard, IMO.
Edit: Smokescreen comment changed to clarify my intended meaning re: political cover.