Author Topic: Heller, and crime rates since?  (Read 9794 times)

ksnecktieman

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Heller, and crime rates since?
« on: January 15, 2010, 10:24:38 PM »
   Has anyone heard what has happened, if anything, to the violent crime rates in Washington DC, since Heller was decided?
   I assume it did not make things worse, or the media would be stomping all over the Heller decision. If someone knows where to find the statistics I would like to know.

sumpnz

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #1 on: January 15, 2010, 10:56:52 PM »
I rather doubt anything has changed.  Even if you can now legally register a gun there, you still have the problem of buying one.  IIRC Handgun sales have to be to residents of the same state as the transferring dealer.  There's no FFL's in DC that I'm aware of other than the Brady Bunch.  Why they have one I don't know (maybe so they can opperate "Buy-Backs" for cities??), but they do, and they are not particularly likely to open a store front to sell guns to the public. 

Plus so many people in that city are either die hard leftists or criminals (redundancy alert) that even if all the non-leftist, non-criminal population went out and bought a gun there are so few that it would hardly register in the minds of the criminal element.

Matthew Carberry

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q1
« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2010, 12:22:34 AM »
Being as we are dealing with a fundamental right, what the crime rate does is irrelevent.

That said, there's no reason to expect it to drop with any statistical significance, and all we "need" on a rational basis is that it stay about the same.

Getting hung up on crime rates as bearing any relation to (and thus being reasonable to examine in terms of) gun freedoms is playing the anti-gunners game.

We deserve our rights even if having them does make the blood run in the streets. 
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BMacklem

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2010, 08:39:02 AM »
Good point Carebear, now if you could just get the anti's to understand that.

I do understand the OP point too though, as it would be really nice to have some statistics that backed up the idea that more guns in lawful hands = less crime, as we could then throw that in their faces as well as the simple fact that it's a right.

TechMan

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #4 on: January 16, 2010, 09:13:54 AM »
I remember seeing a blurb about DC's crime rate being down and the Chief of Police being given credit.  I found the following article http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126282968835719045.html?mod=googlenews_wsj , which briefly mentions DC.
Quote
Washington, D.C., finished the year with 143 killings, the lowest tally in the nation's capital since 1966.
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Standing Wolf

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #5 on: January 16, 2010, 10:23:22 AM »
Quote
Getting hung up on crime rates as bearing any relation to (and thus being reasonable to examine in terms of) gun freedoms is playing the anti-gunners game.

The anti-Second Amendment bigots argued constitutional law for years, (or at least, their Stalinist interpretation of the Second Amendment as guaranteeing an imaginary "collective," but no individual right.) That didn't work.

They tried arguing violent crime, ("If we educated people let those commoners carry guns, there'll be a wild west shoot-out over every fender bender!") That didn't work.

Now, they're trying in Chicago to argue the Second Amendment "grants" commoners a right to keep and bear arms, but we educated people in government have the right, clearly stated in Heller, to restrict what kinds of guns the commoners can have. That doesn't look likely to work, though as well as I've ever been able to discern, taking constitutional issues to the Supreme Court is like shooting craps.

The leftist extremists have been working on the "public health" approach some years now, ("We people with medical and scientific degrees have determined guns are intrinsically unsafe in the hands of commoners.") If you think that doesn't seem likely to work, take a look at the nation's public schools, the prohibition against DDT, the banning of chemicals "known" to "cause global warming," the "fairness" method of attacking talk radio currently under development, et cetera.

Once upon a time, you had to sucker 51% of the people; any more, all you've got to do is assure 51% of the public trough feeders they can get away with it.
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Silver Bullet

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #6 on: January 16, 2010, 01:53:20 PM »
Affirming RKBA via Heller: 

Justices John Roberts, Samuel Alito, Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, and Clarence Thomas.

Glad I voted for Bush !

Standing Wolf

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #7 on: January 17, 2010, 05:51:48 AM »
This just in:

Quote
Proof: More guns = less crime
Posted: January 16, 2010
1:00 am Eastern

© 2010

There it was. Good news on New Year's Day on the front page of the Washington Post.

"Homicide totals in 2009 plummet in District, Prince George's," the headline read.

In a story that likely got lost amid the holiday revelry, the paper reported that the nation's capital in 2009 experienced its lowest number of homicides in 45 years. In case you can't do the math real quick, that previous year would be 1964.

And for those too young to remember, 1964 was pretty much the end of an era. It was before the riots, before the Vietnam War was seriously escalated to become a national dividing point, before the drug explosion.

So what happened in Washington, D.C., in 2009 that might account for such a dramatic decline in homicide deaths?

Hmmmmm. Let me see. Nothing comes to mind.

Oh, wait a minute! Wasn't 2009 the first full year following the overturning of Washington's gun ban by the Supreme Court in the Heller case?

Could that have something to do with it?

http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=122091
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thumbody

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #8 on: January 17, 2010, 08:06:18 AM »
Homicides down 25% in the first year, but the police are trying to take all the credit.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/31/AR2009123103039.html
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Silver Bullet

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #9 on: January 17, 2010, 04:16:23 PM »
Homicides down 25% in the first year, but the police are trying to take all the credit.

So what do the police claim they are doing differently to bring down the crime rate ?

Monkeyleg

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #10 on: January 17, 2010, 05:28:55 PM »
Quote
So what do the police claim they are doing differently to bring down the crime rate ?

Maybe they're not spending as much time arresting otherwise law-abiding citizens for having guns. ;)

Perd Hapley

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #11 on: January 17, 2010, 06:02:36 PM »
Clearly, the drop in crime is due to the hard work, dedication and professionalism of the New York Police Department.   :police:
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Matthew Carberry

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #12 on: January 17, 2010, 07:37:44 PM »
Correlation /= causality, even when it appears to support our side.

There's no actual evidence that either Heller or increased gun ownership solely or significantly led to the crime rate drop.

The plural of anecdote is not data.  Until all other sociological factors are accounted for, to claim increased gun ownership directly caused the continuing drop in crime is premature and opens the argument to disdain if actual studies show evidence to the contrary.

Not sure why we continue to play the anti-gunners game on the whole crime rate issue.  All we need to demonstrate on the pragmatic side to "win" is to show that more guns do not equal more crime, not that they lead to less.

Leave the anti-rational over-reaching arguments to the anti-gunners and we can continue to hang them on the data in the public sphere.
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thumbody

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #13 on: January 17, 2010, 10:34:14 PM »

Quote
There's no actual evidence that either Heller or increased gun ownership solely or significantly led to the crime rate drop.

I was not inferring that the crime rates went down because of Heller, but we tend see the same trend whenever lawful firearms ownership and possession becomes less infringed.
I have not heard of any instance where crime rates went up after concealed carry laws were eased.
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Matthew Carberry

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #14 on: January 17, 2010, 10:41:37 PM »
And that's exactly all we should be stating, that they don't go up.

Because that is pretty much unassailably true and has been shown by several comprehensive studies performed or requested by somewhat anti-gun organizations. 

What I am cautioning about wasn't directed at you in particular but the common claim on gun forums and, worse, in comments on news sites and such that "studies prove that crime rates go down when gun possession goes up/carry laws are eased".

Which overstatement has not been demonstrated unassailably by repeated reputable studies.
"Not all unwise laws are unconstitutional laws, even where constitutional rights are potentially involved." - Eugene Volokh

"As for affecting your movement, your Rascal should be able to achieve the the same speeds no matter what holster rig you are wearing."

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #15 on: January 17, 2010, 10:59:55 PM »
Anti gunners claim causality between more gun laws and less crime.  Evidence that refutes this phony causality is beneficial to our side, even if the evidence consists of lone data points or isolated anecdotes.

Matthew Carberry

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #16 on: January 17, 2010, 11:10:39 PM »
Anti gunners claim causality between more gun laws and less crime.  Evidence that refutes this phony causality is beneficial to our side, even if the evidence consists of lone data points or isolated anecdotes.


Saying "your science is bad, here's our bad science to prove it" isn't a smart argument.

What we need to point at is not, for example, Lott's bigger claims, but rather to their own anti-gun agency and administration requested DOJ and CDC studies, 3 over the past 3 decades, that conclusively show that gun laws have and have had no demonstrable, documentable, positive effect on crime rates.

We turn their own big guns against them instead of opening ourselves up to them attacking the messanger (Lott in this case) for known, acknowledged problems with his work.  Make them explain why their own team says they're wrong, don't let them bring up sock puppets and problems with reproducibility.

When you shape your argument to disarm theirs, they are left stammering rather than having tangental distractors to bring up to confuse the issue.
"Not all unwise laws are unconstitutional laws, even where constitutional rights are potentially involved." - Eugene Volokh

"As for affecting your movement, your Rascal should be able to achieve the the same speeds no matter what holster rig you are wearing."

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #17 on: January 17, 2010, 11:16:43 PM »
Saying "your science is bad, and here's some evidence" is indeed a smart argument.

They've made an argument.  It's false.  Demonstrating that it's false is a net benefit to us.

Monkeyleg

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #18 on: January 17, 2010, 11:24:44 PM »
Engaging in "my statistician can beat up your statistician" arguments may be fine when arguing with anti's, but it does no good with trying to sway the public. Eyes glaze over.

Self defense is a simple concept that everyone understands. Frame gun arguments understandably and you win.

Matthew Carberry

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #19 on: January 17, 2010, 11:27:21 PM »
Saying "your science is bad, and here's some evidence" is indeed a smart argument.

They've made an argument.  It's false.  Demonstrating that it's false is a net benefit to us.

If their argument is "2+2=3" then the way to show it is false is to prove that "2+2=4" not to claim that "2+2 actually equals 5".

Don't go beyond what you can win on hands down, don't leave openings they can counter-attack on.

All claiming that "loosening laws directly causes crime rates to go down" does is allow them to then find the one counter-example or contrary study that shows you are also wrong on the science.

Why not just say the DOJ under Clinton and the CDC, which considers legal gun ownership a massive health crisis, have both repeatedly shown by large-scale, reputable, unchallenged from either side of the argument, studies that gun law relaxation and increased legal ownership have no negative effect on crime rates?
"Not all unwise laws are unconstitutional laws, even where constitutional rights are potentially involved." - Eugene Volokh

"As for affecting your movement, your Rascal should be able to achieve the the same speeds no matter what holster rig you are wearing."

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #20 on: January 17, 2010, 11:40:30 PM »
Nope.  If their argument is "2+2=3", then it's enough merely to demonstrate that "2+2 != 3".  

Arguments of that form are usually pretty easy to manage.  You can show that their causality argument is wrong without having to prove your own alternative causality argument.  Just show a few data points that disprove their purported causality.  In this case, the murder stats in DC will work nicely.

They're already attacking on the "gun laws reduce crime" argument.  We need to show that this is wrong.  The possibility that they might counter-attack with some new false argument doesn't mean that we should let their current false argument stand unanswered.


Matthew Carberry

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #21 on: January 17, 2010, 11:47:58 PM »
How is showing that restrictive gun laws have 0% documented effect on crime rates, by their own sources no less, equal not addressing that they are wrong?

Maybe we're talking across each other.  I'm not saying don't challenge them, I'm saying challenge them only with facts and studies they can't counter or challenge.

As opposed to going too far the other direction and saying "nuh-uh, loosening gun laws actually decreases crime rates.  See, this one study of Lott's, which seems to show that effect but has credibility problems in the opinion of both pro- and anti-gunners, says so."

It's enough to show they are wrong, we don't have to be "more righter".  So we should stick with absolutely defendable arguments.


Gun laws, restrictive or pro-carry, have zero documentable effect on crime rates either positive or negative. 

More briefly, guns have nothing to do with crime.  That's what the best science shows and that is more than enough.
"Not all unwise laws are unconstitutional laws, even where constitutional rights are potentially involved." - Eugene Volokh

"As for affecting your movement, your Rascal should be able to achieve the the same speeds no matter what holster rig you are wearing."

Nick1911

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2010, 04:06:25 PM »
Near as I can tell, you two are saying the same thing.

Matthew Carberry

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Re: Heller, and crime rates since?
« Reply #23 on: January 19, 2010, 04:41:47 AM »
Near as I can tell, you two are saying the same thing.

That's no reason not to argue about it.  =D
"Not all unwise laws are unconstitutional laws, even where constitutional rights are potentially involved." - Eugene Volokh

"As for affecting your movement, your Rascal should be able to achieve the the same speeds no matter what holster rig you are wearing."