RD:
Don't cry for me Argentina...
Argentina used to be wealthier, per capita, than the USA, not too long ago. Mix in some damnfool marxist/socialist policies, stir in class/race resentment, and let simmer. What comes out of the oven is chronic economic and political instability in a cycle of wealth-destruction. Also, a genuine, "kill political opponents" and "start wars to distract the population" dictatorship/oligarchy to punctuate the periods of chaos.
It's not Mad Max, but it sure ain't bean bag.
If it is America that plays Argentina-a-go-go, we can expect the world's economy to contract sharply as our Navy pulls back to the coasts and the seas are no longer open to commerce. Any new power to rise from the wreckage will be akin to the barbarian kingdoms that sacked Rome. We can call it, "The Dark Ages Part II: Poor, Stupid, and Armed with Legacy Nukes."
you have a great deal invested in a scenario i don't see coming true. its the latest iteration of the sky is falling. we are in some deep kim chee but i suspect we will come out the other side. we may end up buying it but this ain't it
America has weathered quite a few storms and still exists, more or less.
So did Rome, the British Empire, and all other hegemon cultures. They ALL eventually topple, as will America. Almost invariably due to rot from within. Not
if, but
when. When the Brits went tits up, America was there to hoist the burden of civilization. No other power of equal or rival economic output or dedication to liberty and the values of Western Civ exists.
By 2050, if trend hold, Europe will be ~50% Muslim and America will be near those numbers of Latin Americans with no love for or tradition of limited consensual gov't. During previous challenges, America could force newcomers to assimilate, or at least fake it to make it through the challenge.
A fine example is the repression of German culture up to and during WWI. Before WWI, there was a distinct German culture in America. Afterwards, not so much. BY WWII, it was deaddeaddead. In 24 years, the pressure put on migrant Germans by gov't and other Americans had stamped out any ideas of separateness.
The flood gates at the southern border have been open since 1964 and our elites have made it illegal to force assimilation while they preach multiculturalism. We have a large contingent of people who care not for America inside our borders. In any conflict with Latin America, we can expect them to take hte side of the enemy.
With a ruling class that is intent on cultural suicide and large numbers of immigrants whose values are alien, it makes weathering the storms much more difficult. Not impossible, as Rome showed it could last for hundreds of years as an empire/dictatorship under similar circumstances. But, eventually, the rot is too widespread to hold under the pressure and what was once unthinkable becomes reality. A reading of St Augustine of Hippo's works, life, and times is educational as he saw the transformation of N Africa from Christian to Muslim.
There
can be rebirths/renaissance in cultures. Victorian England was one such critter. Victoria and her family stood as examples of good behavior to be modeled...and a great many did. Britain was truly "Great" for many more decades had not Victoria worked her will on the Brits. Likewise, after the barbarians destroyed the W Roman Empire, the E Roman Empire reconquered much of the West. In that ase, it was a dead cat bounce, as Rome was truly dead in the West and the gains soon slipped away. America has had religious Great Awakenings that had huge beneficial effects.
Maybe America will rebound. Who knows? I am not sure which way I would bet this time around. Invariably, the dice will come up snake eyes one of these times and America will be no more.
Now, that all might seem a bit academic, but now that I have a wife & kids
it is the stuff of nightmares. TEOTKAWKI or American Decline to me is not an opportunity for
Red Dawn-like antics, but my own personal book of
Job.
Doc: "So sorry, MegaDrugCorpUSA's shipment of stainless steel production equipment from Taiwan was stolen by pirates the week after the Pacific Fleet 'redeployed' out of E Asia. They'll have the new batch of antibiotics your daughter needs in three months."
Me: "But, she needs them now, or she'll become deaf/crippled/die"
Doc: "If they ransom the equipment, you'll have them in one month, but the price will quintuple. You might be able to find them now on the black market for half your earthly possessions."
You can't store up all that we take for granted, nowadays, in some semi-rural bunker. 10,000 rounds of 5.56mm and 20 5-gal buckets of dry kidney beans won't freaking matter if you can't get the meds your kids need. The idea of eating that many kidney beans indefinitely is grim. Doing so after burying your kids after they died from <fill in with serious but currently curable ailment you find most horrific> would make me want to eat some of that 5.56 the hard way.
