collapse of civilization, where to put $$$

[Guest]

So the bird flu wacks us hard, or peak oil causes economic collapse, or the terrs manage to get a nuke into Elliot bay- and the us dollar drops like a rock, where would you have liked to have any extra funds invested. I am assuming that most on this board have the obligitory firearms, some extra food and water stored. What would be a good swap stock or "money". Gold coins? Silver coins? Bicycles? Whats your thought on converting US Dollars to a reliable, hard , compact, exchangable asset? Please no "collector " stuff, I don't think there will be much market for rare teddie bears or comic books. Or even the "codex" of Da Vinci. Just items normal people would want for "money".

[charby]

Drugs, Booze and Cigarettes would be a good currency in troubled times.

[Tallpine]

Land, and the means to defend it

[Art Eatman]

Well, if it's all that bad, you better already be where you need to be.  Already acquainted with the neighbors and the locals of the area.

Arable land, with some sort of water supply that's "off-grid".  A shallow well with a windmill is safer water to drink than streamflow.  It doesn't take a lot of land to grow veggies.

Money?  If gold has a buying-power equivalent to $1,000 or $2,000 an ounce, how do you make change for a Krugerrand when buying some small item?  So, small gold.  0.1 and 0.25 ounce Eagles.  And, junk US silver coins.

[mfree]

Ammo, dry goods, perishables. Stuff that most people don't think to gather. Tallpine has a good idea above. Also take stock in your *education*... not your college degrees, but your life education. Can you farm? How are you for animal husbandry? Blacksmithing? Carpentry? useable skills?

[K Frame]

I'm not sure whether it's just planning, or rampant paranoia, all of the threads that talk about "when civilization/the economy/life as we know it completely collapses..."

Can anyone point to a time in recorded history when any of the above completely collapsed?

[Art Eatman]

Not in the sense you mean, Mike.  However, one might say that for the Jews in Germany in the late 1930s, civilization collapsed--and the only defense would have been to unass the area.

The possibility of collapse existed during the era of Mutually Assured Destruction.

I'm unsure how our society would be affected by a truly severe economic downturn,  if coupled with any notable decline in the buying power of our currency.  I'm dubious we'd see the same degree of peaceful behavior as was common during the Great Depression.

Art

[chaim]

I'm not sure whether it's just planning, or rampant paranoia, all of the threads that talk about "when civilization/the economy/life as we know it completely collapses..."

Can anyone point to a time in recorded history when any of the above completely collapsed?

Mad Max/sci fi style societal collapse, no.  Smaller scall societal OR economic collapse, and localized, yes, many times even in recent history.

We all know about the collapse of Roman civilization, but that was so long ago.

Well, there were several in just the past century, and some within decades of us:

-The Germans after WWI and WWII

-The world, including the US, during the Great Depression

-Argentina had some hardship during the years of 100%+ inflation

-The African famines, some of these occurred in countries with some kind of middle/educated classes

-Iraq after the first Gulf War- a country with a well educated middle class and overall decent standard of living was thrown into 3rd world status

-Most of the former Soviet states were thrown into major economic crisis, and sometimes political crisis, after the fall of Communism

-This is just what I can think of in 2 min off the top of my head, but far from everything.


Nothing along the lines of total societal collapse where people will become animals preying on each other.  However, they are types of situations where you wouldn't want all your investments and savings in the currency of your country, and in one (the Depression) in pretty much any currency based investments.  It may not be a bad idea to diversify some percentage of your investments into foreign currency based investments, and a smaller percentage into some kind of commodity (if you are really worried about total failure go with something you can carry, if you are worried about a Great Depression where there will still be some law and order certificates stating you own x amount of something would be fine).

[garrettwc]

I'm not sure whether it's just planning, or rampant paranoia, all of the threads that talk about "when civilization/the economy/life as we know it completely collapses..."

Can anyone point to a time in recorded history when any of the above completely collapsed?

New Orleans last year. Granted that was localized though.

[K Frame]

"one might say that for the Jews in Germany in the late 1930s, civilization collapsed."

That's not the kind of collapse that people are talking about, or at least what I interpret what people are talking about -- a wholesale destruction of the service, supply, social, and economic infrastructures, essentially leaving everyone to fend for him/herself.

"The possibility of collapse existed during the era of Mutually Assured Destruction."

The possibility has ALWAYS existed, Art, yet even in the most cataclysmic episodes of human history, it's never happened.

It didn't happen in Germany or Japan in the end phases of World War II, not even after virtually every Japanese population center was burned to the ground, or after two atomic weapons were dropped.

It didn't happen during the Spanish Influenza epidemic of 1918-1919.

It didn't happen during any of the panics/depressions in the United States from 1870 to 1920.

It didn't happen during the world-wide Great Depression of the 1930s.

It didn't happen during the Napoleonic Wars.

And the true kicker?

It didn't happen during the Black Death, when over a 200 year period roughly 30 to 70% of the population of Europe (depending on area), died. Can anyone imagine a disease that could, in a matter of weeks or months, cause the deaths of upwards 3 million people in New York? Half a million in Philadelphia? 3.5 million in LA?

It just makes me wonder...

[K Frame]

"New Orleans last year."

Incorrect.

Civilization, the economy, government in New Orleans did not completely collapse. They were severely strained, but they continued to function.

[K Frame]

"The world, including the US, during the Great Depression."

Do you know just how many people were out of work in the US during the height of the Great Depression, Chaim?

Whenever I ask this of people, I normally get answers ranging anywhere from 50 to 90 percent. At no time during the Great Depression is it believed that more than 25% of the general workforce was without jobs.

In most indistrialized nations the figures are similar, Australia quotes 29%, Great Britain 22%, France somewhere in between.


"The Germans after WWI and WWII"

Also a misnomer, although Weimar Republic Germany during the height of the inflationary period in the 1920s was closer. Germany after World War II? No, because German society was immediately propped up economically, politically, and structurally by the Allies.

The famines in Africa are somewhat closer, but they still aren't indicative of a total collapse of society.

Well, I've thoroughly hijacked this thread with a series of rhetorical questions, for which I apologize, tokugawa.

I suggest you put your money in kitty litter. It will be very popular for sopping up blood stains when the revolution comes.

[Guest]

Along Art's post-

Mentors & Elders put back :
-rolls of silver dimes, quarters, half dollars and dollars.
-small gold coins
-.22 ammo
-inexpensive guns
-hand held Lee Reloaders and reloading components
-hand tools
-books
-etc.

Now I have knowledge of and have seen these, these Mentors are now passed. Words do not describe seeing a 55 gal drum full of nothing but rolls of silver coins, or another full of silver coins, gold coins $1 and $5 paper money. 55 gal drum also holds a lot of ammo. Others with inexpensive guns like .22 rifles and shotguns is something else.

All sorts of hand tools and normal everyday stuff to repair vehicles, to oil lamps, to plumbing to electrical ...etc., that may be be hard to get and things needing fixed and maintained.

Some recall the depression, and many have passed down the needs vs wants lessons to kids. Seems a box of .22 ammo was pretty good barter material for something needed. Pair of pliers in exchange worked right nice too.

I never saw a Hills Bros Coffee can tossed out, or a  Mason Jar - these were "recycled" in some shape, form   or fashion...

One place is an Cistern, been too many years since I have been there. I imagine the chicken snakes are still keeping tabs on stores below.

Rolls of non silver coins too, folks might not have change to give back...

The "folding money" gets replaced with newer printing. One old lady who did not trust banks, when she died had over $100K in cash in the home. Could not access the "downstairs so good" - them heavy drapes upstairs had over $25k in the lining. No wonder the damn things  were rarely pulled back to let light in. House got sold, kinfolks invested in  old grocery store safes, these part of the basements now...if you know where to look. *wink*.

One mentor had me by the heels, lowered me head first into a 55 gal drum, damn that canvas bag was heavy! My "job" was to get the first Layer started out right...I got a silver dollar for my assistance.

[Guest]

Mike, without establishing a set of parameters, I suppose it would be difficult to define "collapse". I am quite sure however that those heavily invested in cash in the Wiemar republic wished they had gold, or some other form of value.  
  And again, without arguing about definitions or history, I do believe the situation today is far more interconnected than in the past, and subject to a much harder fall. Our very reliance on technological leverage has helped us to forget the lessons of the past.

[The Rabbi]

I am with Mike Irwin on this.  It is mostly an internet exercise in paranoia and self-amusement than anything serious.
Most of the people who had enough resources to make preparations in New Orleans also had enough resoures to flee the area.  That seems to be key to me.  We might have localized temporary absence of some services but those are localized.  And temporary.
I would bet people who stocked up on dried beans in anticipation of the collapse of civilization in Y2K are still eating lots of chili.

[K Frame]

"Things are more interconnected today..."

I assume you're talking internationally. That is true, but I'm really wondering if it's to any greater degree of impact than it was in the 1930s. Impossible to effectively answer, of course.

That said, it should also be noted that the US Government today is far more proactive in interceding in catastrophic events than it has ever been. The social net that exists today largely came about due to the Great Depression. No, it doesn't always operate effectively, or smoothly, but it is there to a degree that people who were victims of the 1905 Galveston, Texas, hurricane never could have imagined.

[Guest]

I wouldn't say its impossible but unlikely.

The two things that come to mind would be a meteor strike or an illness that kills massive numbers of people.

Much more likely is a big economic collapse in the US, but I suspect we'll more likely experience a slow decline in our standard of living as the Pacific Rim and LCC become more important.

[Guest]

I am not totally talking about international interdependency.  The vast majority of people now are city dwellers, and most food comes from a very far distance- along with most everything else. Something simple, like gas and diesel at 10 bucks a gallon could have some real unanticipated effects. I believe we just acheived a net negative savings rate as well.  It just seems shaky to me, admittedly I am no financial expert.  Stocks are fine, bonds are fine, I would just like to have an alternate as a diversity cushion.

[Guest]

Money?  If gold has a buying-power equivalent to $1,000 or $2,000 an ounce, how do you make change for a Krugerrand when buying some small item?  So, small gold.  0.1 and 0.25 ounce Eagles.  And, junk US silver coins.

I wouldnt worry about gold too much. If civilization has collapsed and people are starving to death gold isnt going to be worth much of anything. If you cant eat it, drink it, or shoot it, it has no value to a civilization that is living hand-to-mouth.

[drewtam]

I am not totally talking about international interdependency.  The vast majority of people now are city dwellers, and most food comes from a very far distance- along with most everything else. Something simple, like gas and diesel at 10 bucks a gallon could have some real unanticipated effects.

At $10/gal, the effect would be to switch to Liquid Natural Gas, which can be both 'mined' and artificially produced from coal (coal gasification). This fuel is equivilent to about $5/gal (in gasoline terms, equal power cars, equal driving distances). Hydrogen split from water by electrolysis is about $7/gal (in gasoline terms), its more expensive because of the difficulty in actually using it (like storing and transporting). Realise then, that we really aren't more than a decade or two away from switching to an alternative fuel (also dont forget that nuclear supplies are nearly inexhaustable).

We have so much food and grain we dont know where to put it all, we have to maintain high prices by placing high import tariffs on other nations and then turning around and paying our farmers not to grow. Grain, if kept dry and unexposed to the elements can last millenia. There are vases of sealed grain found in the tombs of egyptian kings, still good to be planted or consumed.

I'm convinced that our interconnectedness and advanced technology, makes our race almost impossible to wipe out now; INCLUDING complete nuclear war by every nation.

I believe we just acheived a net negative savings rate as well.  It just seems shaky to me, admittedly I am no financial expert.  Stocks are fine, bonds are fine, I would just like to have an alternate as a diversity cushion.

An economic depression is something completely different; I am convinced that serious economic hardship is coming down the pike for my generation. The money owed to SS, Medicare/Medicaid and what is required to fund the military is 3/5 of the budget. Paying just the interest on our current debt is about a fifth of our budget. But we're still bringing on the debt.

Taxes will go up,
economy will go down,
social services and military will have to be cut because banks wont trust lending our gov't a single dime after a certain debt point.
Taxes will go up again
economy will continue to slow, other people will be blamed for the economic weakness (the chinese use slave labor, and they do; the OPEC squeeze us for every dime, and they do).
inflation, inflation, inflation...

So back to the thread, how do we hedge against serious and rampant stagflation that looks to be on our horizon?

Gold, maybe, it seems like a pretty contrived currency to me but maybe thats cause I'm an engineer- Gold isnt useful for anything.

Assets? Manufacturing equipement? Farmland?
Housing will bust, manufacturing is done cheaper by China, food prices will tank
But all three of those things would provide a place to live, machinery to use, and food to eat!

IMHO, the only 'thing' to trust is God (i.e. "In God We Trust" on our money), and learn to be content in both riches and poverty for we will be provided for.

Drew

[Felonious Monk/Fignozzle]

The further into the bowels of a large metropolitan area you are, the larger the challenges would be (assuming it would be anything other than temporary and localized, which I doubt).  I find the more removed from the land you are, the further you have to 'fall'.  We remove ourselves exponentially from the slaughter of livestock animals, from the harvesting of foodstuffs,  and the weaving of textiles, and the price we pay is dependency upon the chain of "service providers" who still do that work on our behalf, whether clinically in a chicken/beef/pork processing plant, or picking the cotton for our T-shirts.  
99.999% of the time, this should be no problem, and most are content to call that acceptable risk.    
A few boxes of survival rations and a drum of water and the rolled silver coins sm mentioned might reduce that risk even further.  

It's not unlike what few talk about re: carrying CCW; the likelihood of actually having to prevail in a firefight is extremely small.  In some huge majority of incidents, the introduction of a weapon (drawing/presenting one's gun) is enough to back down the aggressor and cause him to flee.  Even so, the BG is not going to stand there and run wound ballistics calculations on your 8 shot 22Magnum Taurus snub to see if he can survive an altercation.  It will usually go:
OMG! A frelling GUN! (involuntary urination) scramble crawl mumble plead run away.  Reholster.

I've fought/debated folks on this topic many times, and some don't want to accept carrying anything but a 1911 flavored .45, but for many it's just not realistic (my diabetic 77 year old mother in law), and so she is pretty well prepared (range trips about every other month) with her Taurus snub.
It's late, I'm rambling.  Sorry.

[Dave Markowitz]

After reading this thread I went and ordered 500 rounds of CCI .22 LR Subsonic HPs, 500 rounds of .22 WMR Maxi Mag JHPs, plus two MTM Sprotsman Dry Boxes.  

[Silver Bullet]

Someone said recently that bar soap was used as currency during one of the world wars.  

Otherwise, consider

http://www.mountainhouse.com/emgcy_fds.cfm

[K Frame]

In a time of shortages, just about anything can assume the status of currency as bartering becomes more common in the economic process.

It's not just limited to those who are on the receiving end of the ass kicking, either. American troops routinely bartered among themselves. Cash may have been available, but when you're in combat or elsewise away from an area where cash is actually useful, a candy bar, pack of cigarettes, or product from a rations pouch can have greater intrinsic value.

[Art Eatman]

drewtam, I got my BSME in 1962.

Gold has always had a monetary value.  It has always been a refuge against devaluation of fiat currency; still is.

I've never been any sort of believer in SHTF stuff.  Rodney King riots or Katrinas, yeah, but that's different.  I've always found it entertaining to speculate.

Back in the late 1970s, with the high inflation of the Carter era and the Cold War hot-up, "Survivalism" began to be talked about.  Mel Tappan wrote about it, for instance, and folks were serious about the information in "The Anarchist's Cookbook" and so on.

Now, I've been a do-it-yourselfer for a long, long time.  I was raised in a mix of city and country, and learned a lot about farming, gardening and ranching as well as about psychology and engineering.  I did my own home repairs and car repairs.  I've always been into guns and handloading and hunting--and I've done a lot of fishing.

So one day I run across a list of "things" and talents that The Compleat Survivalist would have, and, Lo!  And, Behold!  I are one! :D:D

But most of that stuff is just mental masturbation...

Art