Author Topic: collapse of civilization, where to put $$$  (Read 4005 times)

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #25 on: March 01, 2006, 10:14:10 AM »
Quote from: Art Eatman
...So one day I run across a list of "things" and talents that The Compleat Survivalist would have, and, Lo!  And, Behold!  I are one! Cheesy:D:D
That's why, when it hits the fan, I'm going to Art's. Smiley

Guest

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #26 on: March 01, 2006, 02:16:50 PM »
I are not a economonist.  I do not play one on teevee.  I am, by training and inclination, an historian.  I spent most of my 30- year working career as a librarian (got the Master's in that) in various university and government libraries.

As Bob Dylan said, you don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing.  What this nation is doing economically is simply unsustainable.  That which cannot be sustained will eventually break down.  Don't ask me when, I don't know.  I am convinced the question IS when and not if however.  The oft-repeated deprecation of precious metals is one example of how far afield we have come.  Gold and silver have been money for as long as humans have had a concept of such a thing, yet so many people these days have absolute confidence in a financial structure based on fiat currency that only dates back to 1913.  The Fed is not the first national bank to hold sway in the United States, nor is it the second... . It might be instructive to examine the history of the previous national banks in the US, not to mention the history of EVERY fiat currency regime that has ever existed.  Forewarned is forearmed after all.

My suggestion for the most valuable place you can invest current "dollars" (such as they are) is in the space between your ears.  No, I don't mean going to college for some useless airhead degree.  I mean learning practical, useful skills that have an application in your life and that of others around you.  Find a useful aptitude you have and pursue it.  Learn to garden, and to preserve the excess of your harvest, accumulate the tools necessary to be successful.  Learn to raise and keep small livestock, to run a smokehouse, to salt meat, to milk a cow and churn butter by hand.  Take a Red Cross first aid course, then go on through your EMT training and become a paramedic.  Learn what makes engines tick and how to repair them, build your toolbox and spare part supply to the point you can do most of your own mainenance work.  Learn basic carpentry, plumbing, electrical work (most community colleges offer homeowner level classes), and along with the skills invest in the necessary tools.  Learn what makes PCs and networks tick, how to set up and troubleshoot connections and software, some programming basics, and invest in the hardware and software to keep learning more.  Turn an existing hobby into something profitable or at least potentially so.  Look for things that you can do to save money, and educate yourself to find places to put those savings, places that can grow them for you instead of shrinking your purchasing power through inflation.  And so on, ad infinitum.

Understand something.  NOT ONE of us has any guarantees, not for the next minute, hour, day, week, month, year, decade- no promises, nothing to count on at all.  I have had some personal experience with how your world can get yanked out from under you in a major way, no one has to convince me.  I am an absolute believer that I might not see tomorrow's sunrise- I know it might not be in the cards for me.  So for all that stuff some of you are taking for granted, you better begin getting over it while you have some time to rearrange your thought processes.  That will be the thing that turns lots of people into piddling lumpen masses when things eventually do go sideways for whatever reason the ball gets kicked off- being surprised by it.  Prepare to be surprised, you don't walk the street in Condition White, why should you live the other aspects of your life that way?

America used to pride itself on rugged individualism, do-it-yourselfishness, being capable and willing to lend a hand to a neighbor.  Seen much of that lately?  DONE much of that lately?  Likely more people here on a percentage basis do than in many virtual communities, just because of the demographics involved.  But DON'T rest on whatever laurels you have.  Get up and go, expand your skill set, learn something you didn't know and equip yourself to do it well.  That's the best place you can invest- in yourself and your skills and tools.  Everything else is at best a poor second.  

Yes, I happen to agree that being out of the city is a good idea.  But your location won't help if you don't know how to get along there.  I understand that complete self sufficiency is a happy romantic fantasy, that's why I think it is necessary to get a looong head start in order to build a place for yourself as a valuable member of your community.  The idea that you will buy some remote acreage, build a vacation cabin, visit it twice a year, and then go there to live the life of Robinson Crusoe Reilly if "TSHTF" is the stuff of novels and movies.  It ain't gonna happen.  And having buckets of precious metals, ammo, freeze-dried miracle chow or anything else will not buy you a place if you haven't already earned one by what you ARE and what you KNOW.

Enough of a rant for tonight, busy trading days get  me really wound up (good thing they are unusual around here).

lpl/nc

drewtam

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #27 on: March 01, 2006, 09:34:26 PM »
Quote from: Art Eatman
drewtam, I got my BSME in 1962. Smiley

Gold has always had a monetary value.  It has always been a refuge against devaluation of fiat currency; still is.



But most of that stuff is just mental masturbation...

Art
Where did you go to school?
I'm just gradiated from Illinois.

With Precious Metals (PM); I still dont understand why people put stock in them. It reminds me of Gulliver's Travels and the Yahoos who would dig these shiny rocks and fight and scratch over something that is entirely useless. It seems just as contrived as paper money, the only advantage is that the rate of 'printing' is limited to how much can be discovered and mined. This puts a limit on drastic inflation. But otherwise, just as fiat as the paper kind. The gold is only worth as much as I want it, only as much as I am willing to trade for it.

The main thing I think I'm missing in TEOTW, is that I wouldn't have any idea how to raise a herd of cattle or hogs. About the only thing I know about farming is put seed in ground and just add water. But I could probably put together a blast furnace and a small scale power plant.  Given enough coal, or coke. And I could probably work those guys who know how to ferment alcohols and build some terribly inefficient ethanol cars.

I think people would be willing to give me food for electricity, steel, and cars.

I agree that most of the survivalism is 'entertainment' as you put it.

But I am convinced that a large recession looms on our horizon. I dont think it'll be sudden unless the US.gov defaults which I think is highly unlikely. It'll be a slow draining stagflation.  
It seems that everyone here, puts thier trust in PM as a hedge againt financial collapse. Are there any other opinions? It seems to me that if most currencies (including the dollar and euro) undergo massive devaluations, then PMs will mitigate the loss but still lose. Housing would also completely devalue since the market would dry up.

Drew
I’m not saying I invented the turtleneck. But I was the first person to realize its potential as a tactical garment. The tactical turtleneck! The… tactleneck!

longeyes

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #28 on: March 02, 2006, 06:50:29 AM »
In the mini-Ice Age that ravaged Europe from 1315 until the beginning of the 19th century, there were over 100 famines in France.  It's good to know how to grow stuff and have arable land, but if the weather's not cooperating, you're SOL.  And a lot of people didn't make it.

The Black Death did a pretty good extermination job.  One-third of Europe dead, maybe more.

As for trading materials, an Argentinian "survivalist" recommends, among other things, modestly expensive gold and silver jewelry.  Rings and things.
"Domari nolo."

Thug: What you lookin' at old man?
Walt Kowalski: Ever notice how you come across somebody once in a while you shouldn't have messed with? That's me.

Molon Labe.

Art Eatman

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #29 on: March 02, 2006, 11:36:42 AM »
Got out of high school in 1951.  Entered the University of Texas, but just wasn't ready for college.  Went into the Army; did a tour of occupation duty in S. Korea and then re-upped to go to Paris.  Got out in 1958, went a year to FSU and then three years at Gatorland.  Worked a year for the Chevy Test Lab in Deeeetroit, and then went back home to Austin, Texas in '63.  Got fed up with Austintatious in '83 and moved to Terlingua.

As far as precious metals, it doesn't matter what the government's economists or the Wall Street experts say.  "Little people", worldwide, have always kept some gold for when the currency goes into the toilet.  For many of them, it's a case of in the toilet AGAIN.

Another way to look at it:  Money is what people will ACCEPT in return for a good or a service.  I'm not saying we'll get to a condition of Germany of 1923, but it's worth studying as to the behavior of government, employer and employee.  Printing presses running full blast, employers paying each hour, and the employee taking a wheelbarrow full of Marks to buy a loaf of bread.

What can I say?  I've been making profits, meddling with gold and silver, for over 35 years, now.  I'm just too stoopid to know that gold ain't as good as money...  So it's merely a commodity?  Fine.  Most of my gold was bought at around $300/oz.  Silver at $4/oz.  So, right now, I'm sitting fat and happy.  Gold isn't "worth" more; the dollar just buys less of it.  Hey, the dollar buys less car, now, than it did 30 years ago, right?  Or gasoline?

Count me in among those who see maybe a 30% drop in the buying power of the currency over the next few years.  

Art
The American Indians learned what happens when you don't control immigration.

drewtam

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #30 on: March 03, 2006, 11:32:29 AM »
Quote from: Art Eatman
I'm not saying we'll get to a condition of Germany of 1923, but it's worth studying as to the behavior of government
I'm afraid we are heading to something very close to that, but it just wont be so sudden.

But its kinda at that strange inflection point, where its hard to tell whether we will move ourselves out of that path. On the one hand we have been seeing massive increases of gov't debt for the past 20yrs. On the other, a large movement toward fiscal responsibity has been underway including welfare reform. It was an idea that has been pushed by Repubs for years and during the Clinton years the slightly Repub congress with minor (but crucial) Dem support finally has the first balanced budget in years. But then Bush goes and signs the Medicare/Medcaid bills which is now 1/5 of our budget. But then he brings up a major SS reform topic, but then he gets shot down so hard its depressing.

I'm not sure which direction its going to go from here, will we save ourselves from the path of financial melt down? I'm not sure.

Just as soon as Repubs get the upperhand in national politcal power, 'small gov't and less tax' goes scurrying off to hide in the corner.
Its all so frustrating.

Drew
I’m not saying I invented the turtleneck. But I was the first person to realize its potential as a tactical garment. The tactical turtleneck! The… tactleneck!

Art Eatman

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #31 on: March 03, 2006, 11:55:50 AM »
Several things:  Most politicians--at all levels--are statist.  They want more central power.  Most bureaucrats want serenity, along with the politicos.  Serenity is enhanced when everybody is a round peg for round holes.

The majority of people want security, which is defined differently for different people, but they'll vote for whomever promises it to them:  Financial, or health, or physical or whatever floats the boat.

Deficit financing, so far, hasn't cost a politico his office.  The public at large has been conditioned to instant gratification and a built-in belief that, somehow, the future is secure:  Thanx, Guvmint.  Therefore, gigantic balance of trade deficit, courtesy all the imported goodies.  Gigantic federal budget deficits and gigantic national debt.

Add it all up and about all I can say is that I figure my security of all sorts is mostly up to me.  But, then, I always have...

Art
The American Indians learned what happens when you don't control immigration.

K Frame

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #32 on: March 03, 2006, 01:22:07 PM »
Kitty litter.

Mark my words...

Kitty litter.
Carbon Monoxide, sucking the life out of idiots, 'tards, and fools since man tamed fire.

Art Eatman

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #33 on: March 03, 2006, 03:40:57 PM »
Funny you should mention that, Mike.  There's a kitty-litter mine not far north of me, and a face-powder mine not far north of that.  Different grades of bentonite.

Smiley, Art
The American Indians learned what happens when you don't control immigration.

Justin

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #34 on: March 03, 2006, 09:08:51 PM »
Hey, in case of massive inflation, don't forget that FRN's can still be used in lieu of TP!  Cheesy
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Art Eatman

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #35 on: March 04, 2006, 03:09:05 AM »
Only government can take something with at least a modicum of intrinsic value, like paper, and by writing on it render it valueless.

Back when the Peso collapsed in Mexico, before they shifted the decimal point by 100, the banks had a run on aluminum and brass coinage.  Gringos bought them by the many-pounds worth, drilled holes in them, and used or sold them as washers.  Governemnts can even render metals valueless!!

Smiley, Art
The American Indians learned what happens when you don't control immigration.

Antibubba

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #36 on: March 05, 2006, 08:45:53 AM »
As callous as it may sound, I'm not worried about a pandemic.  If enough people die that it affects the infrastructure, then it'll be that much less infrastructure we need anyway.  As tragic as it would be, 2 or 3 billion less people on the planet would take enough pressure off of us that we could make the switchover (from petroleum and the petro-related subsidiaries down the line, etc).  Like I said, callous.

I'm more concerned about a slow crumple than a big crunch.
If life gives you melons, you may be dyslexic.

Guest

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collapse of civilization, where to put $$$
« Reply #37 on: March 06, 2006, 09:59:38 AM »
Quote from: Art Eatman
Funny you should mention that, Mike.  There's a kitty-litter mine not far north of me, and a face-powder mine not far north of that.  Different grades of bentonite.

Smiley, Art
Don't get 'em mixed up. Smiley