Suppose 21st Century Disasters Like 19th Century

[roo_ster]

Just in case things are too rosy around here, perhaps it is time to contemplate a series of natural disasters that occurred in the 19th century, but spared the 20th century, which was mostly mega-disaster-free, outside the effects of Marx on the human landscape.

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/006638.html

[Discounting the Little Ice Age], 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes (Mississppi river changed course), the 1815 Mount Tambora VEI 7 volcanic eruption, the 1859 solar Carrington event

...a series of 8.1 and 8.2 earthquakes over a period of a few months...picture bridges across the Mississippi collapsing with freight trains halted and river freight shipping blocked.

...A VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) 7 volcano...The eruption so reduced solar radiation reaching the surface that snow fell in New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces in June...crop failures...

...an unusually large coronal mass ejection by the Sun cause intense magnetic fields on Earth which if they happened today would cause a large fraction of the big electric power transformers to fail in large electric grids. Large areas of industrialized countries would be without electric power for months...

USGS California ARkstorm Disaster Scenario
http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/007836.html
http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2010/1312/

California's Central Valley turned into a 300mi x 20 mi lake after storms similar to the ones in the 1860s.

[brimic]

...an unusually large coronal mass ejection by the Sun cause intense magnetic fields on Earth which if they happened today would cause a large fraction of the big electric power transformers to fail in large electric grids. Large areas of industrialized countries would be without electric power for months...

That would get real ugly real quick.

[MicroBalrog]

Right until they haul out the *thousands* of spare electric *plants* they have stored.

[AZRedhawk44]

We need cities floating in the air.

Won't someone think of the children, and make some cities that float in the air?

[Ben]

California's Central Valley turned into a 300mi x 20 mi lake after storms similar to the ones in the 1860s.

This is where my folks live. The local paper brings that up every once in a while, including old photos. The folks live in a slightly higher part of the valley, but people were still getting around in boats. The same thing to a lesser degree happened in the early 1900s as well.

Not to veer this into a Global Warming thread, but it's interesting to think about how humans respond to natural disasters and climate change. Up until the last several hundred years, people simply picked up and moved -- sometimes because all they had was tents, so if things became less than liveable, hey, just pack up the house / village and move.

I recently read that the Great Britain was depopulated and repopulated by hominids / humans three times over the last million years due to climate changes. Whole populations just sucked it up and moved. Of course they didn't have an infrastructure. For modern humans in technologically sophisticated countries, we almost lose some of that resilience, because we can't pick up an entire infrastructure and move it. To me, this is one of the reasons Global Warming has become so political -- it's not the climate change, it's that the people who built their million dollar homes 100 yards from the ocean don't want to lose them, or the people who built their entire city below sea level don't want to lose it.

If we do have a very major disaster or extreme climate change in the next couple of centuries, it seems like primitive tribal communities in the Third World will be more resilient than NYC or LA.

[MicroBalrog]

Except infrastructure makes us more resilient, not less.

Remember the earthquake in Haiti, with 90-300 thousand people being killed?

That was horrible.

The same year, an earthquake of slightly greater force (7.2 rather than 7.0) occured near the Mexican city of Mexicali. It is estimated four, that's 4, people were killed. An even more powerful earthquake occured in Chile the same year (8.2 magnitude). 500 people were killed. Note that this last was more powerful than the New Madrid Earthquake was.

And now think of the disaster preparation most countries have.

Ever seen this?



This is one of Russia's - Russia, not exactly the world's richest country - State Reserve storages, holding disassembled power plants, food for millions of people, bridges, vehicles.

Western nations no doubt have things like this too.  It's true we could be better prepared - mostly in the field of organization and education - but it's not true we're more vulnerable.

[Ben]

I would agree with generally on something like certain earthquakes, where our (current) technology can sometimes protect us. But let's say an 8.7 hit, or else let's take AGW at it's worst case, Al Gore scenario, and the ocean rose 30 feet in 50 years. How do you protect a coastal city from that? The people can move, but the buildings can't. So certainly a country can be resilient (i.e., overall population), but major population centers may not be.

[brimic]

Western nations no doubt have things like this too.

Doubtful in the US, especially out in flyover country. Government here does nothing but produce red tape when bridges and powerplants need to be built.
Want proof? Look at New orleans after katrina for example. The whole problem was caused by corrupt government and the aftermath was made worse by incomepetent government. Now multiply that situation by the cities with over 500,000 people in this country and you'll get an idea what things will be like when the power goes out.

[AJ Dual]

Doubtful in the US, especially out in flyover country. Government here does nothing but produce red tape when bridges and powerplants need to be built.
Want proof? Look at New orleans after katrina for example. The whole problem was caused by corrupt government and the aftermath was made worse by incomepetent government. Now multiply that situation by the cities with over 500,000 people in this country and you'll get an idea what things will be like when the power goes out.

Agreed, and those same problems are 1000% worse in third world nations.

Much of the Midwest and mountain states have large natural disasters on a yearly basis. Storms, avalanche, fire, tornado, floods. Maybe not on the scale of Katrina/NOLA, but I think some generalized conclusions about the impact of such disasters on cities states with nominally functional governments and cultures, vs. your average third-world kleptocracy can be made.

[roo_ster]

Agreed, and those same problems are 1000% worse in third world nations.

Much of the Midwest and mountain states have large natural disasters on a yearly basis. Storms, avalanche, fire, tornado, floods. Maybe not on the scale of Katrina/NOLA, but I think some generalized conclusions about the impact of such disasters on cities states with nominally functional governments and cultures, vs. your average third-world kleptocracy can be made.

Jonah Goldberg called it something like the "flush toilet rule."  Countries without ubiquitous flush toilets and reliable plumbing will suffer orders of magnitude higher casualties in any natural disaster relative to a country with them.

[AJ Dual]

Jonah Goldberg called it something like the "flush toilet rule."  Countries without ubiquitous flush toilets and reliable plumbing will suffer orders of magnitude higher casualties in any natural disaster relative to a country with them.

Then where were the residents of NOLA going...

Nope. Never mind.

Don't wanna know.