Egypt: What's happening?

[AZRedhawk44]

Is this good for American interests (i.e. Increased "westernization" that is being opposed by the governing powers), or is this bad for American interests (i.e. Radical Islam gaining traction in a slumping economy), or none of the above?

[MicroBalrog]

Nobody knows. Obviously the Muslim Brotherhood is playing a role, and certainly our newspapers here have played them up, but I don't think anybody really knows, even the Egyptians themselves.

But! If you're interested I'm going to go out and get the weekend issue of Yedioth and see what they have to say.

[SADShooter]

I'm not sure. I will say that I believe the flaw in our assumptions in attempting to democratize countries is that the necessary social/political institutions and values will grow organically out of a democratic process. It's fundamental principles and that make western systems work. Without the principles the mechanics are irrelevant.

If the destabilization in Egypt brings down Mubarak, it isn't necessarily good for our interests and could result in another islamic fundamentalist regime, if that's what a plebiscite (honest or otherwise) demands. Iran 2.0.

ETA: democratize, dammit.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

I, too, would like to know what the riots are about.  The American press is noticeably silent on that wee little detail.  They don't say why the population is dissatisfied with the current government or what triggered the rioting, nor what the rioters hope to accomplish.

I'm not sure. I will say that I believe the flaw in our assumptions in attempting to democrate countries is that the necessary social/political institutions and values will grow organically out of a democratic process. It's fundamental principles and that make western systems work. Without the principles the mechanics are irrelevant.

What's this got to do with Egypt?  We did not try to democratize Eqypt, and Eqypt isn't democratic in any true sense.

[longeyes]

We have a dilemma: dictators or radical Islamist populism.  Both options are lousy.  If there's an answer it would have been to try and promote "Reform Islam" decades ago, but it's probably way, way too late for that now.

[MicroBalrog]

Rising prices, unemployment, and mindblowing corruption are important issues to the Egyptians.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

Rising prices, unemployment, and mindblowing corruption are important issues to the Egyptians.

Yeah, but why now?  Poverty and corruption aren't exactly new in the middle east.

[SADShooter]

HTG:

I didn't say, or mean to imply, that we are involved in Egypt's politics, or that Egypt's current government was democratic. In looking at the situation through the prism of our national interest, per the OP, an anti-government movement, even a democratic one, isn't necessarily a good thing for us because the results may not conform to our expectations. Sorry if I was unclear.

SADShooter

[longeyes]

So long as the illiteracy rate in the Muslim sphere is as staggeringly high as it is I don't see much hope for progress there.

[MicroBalrog]

Apparently the Islamic brotherhood is not really as involved as it'd like to be.

[longeyes]

I think this is another case of deliberate "benign neglect."  I believe in his heart Obama would love to see "populist" uprisings through the Muslim world, even if they end with Islamist autocracies after the democratic froth is gone.  This is still the man with dreams from his father, and those dreams include global revolt by People of Color everywhere, regardless of what that means for the U.S. 

[De Selby]

This is a direct result of he successful Tunisian revolution. That's why now.  A secular government is likely to result, and no democracy of any kind in he middle east will do anything other than prepare for war with Israel.

[roo_ster]

I'm not sure. I will say that I believe the flaw in our assumptions in attempting to democrate countries is that the necessary social/political institutions and values will grow organically out of a democratic process. It's fundamental principles and that make western systems work. Without the principles the mechanics are irrelevant.

Very true.

All this, "scratch a savage foreigner and fins an American underneath" self-delusion has to stop.

This is a direct result of he successful Tunisian revolution. That's why now.  A secular government is likely to result, and no democracy of any kind in he middle east will do anything other than prepare for war with Israel.

Case in point: Turkey.

"If you want to join the EU you must democratize!"  The result of such is a more thuggish & benighted Islamist regime.

[longeyes]

Looks as if Mubarak is anointing his "Sejanus:" the head of their "CIA."  I think we've seen this movie before...

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

All this, "scratch a savage foreigner and fins an American underneath" self-delusion has to stop.

much truth!!!  we need rooster to be in foreign service!

Quote from: De Selby on Today at 06:08:28
This is a direct result of he successful Tunisian revolution. That's why now.  A secular government is likely to result, and no democracy of any kind in he middle east will do anything other than prepare for war with Israel.

Case in point: Turkey.

"If you want to join the EU you must democratize!"  The result of such is a more thuggish & benighted Islamist regime.


end times are nigh!  rooster agrees with "de selby    and i with the both of them

[MicroBalrog]

This is a direct result of he successful Tunisian revolution. That's why now.  A secular government is likely to result, and no democracy of any kind in he middle east will do anything other than prepare for war with Israel.

It would be madness for Egypt to make war on Israel. I can see them trying if religious nutcases took over, but no sane secular government would.

I think what's of more concern is Egypt ending its cooperation in Israel in certain fields.

Me?

If I lived in Europe or Australia, I'd be perfectly fine with seeing a secular democracy rise in Egypt. Even an imperfect democracy, like the one enjoyed by the Indonesians, would be better than what they have now. Living where I live, I can afford at best to be cautiously optimistic.

[De Selby]

Micro, it would be madness-today.  You can bet that a democracy in Egypt, which will likely be secular, is going to work on its military capability against Israel.  

Anymore in the wave of democracy, and israel is going to be gone inside of 50 years.  There's no way it can survive without the cooperation it gets from the existing regimes.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

This is a direct result of he successful Tunisian revolution. That's why now. 

That does nothing to answer the question of "why now".  Poverty, corruption, and dictatorship are nothing new in Tunisia, either.  So what suddenly prompted the Tunisians to take to the streets?

[De Selby]

That does nothing to answer the question of "why now".  Poverty, corruption, and dictatorship are nothing new in Tunisia, either.  So what suddenly prompted the Tunisians to take to the streets?

I'm actually surprised that you haven't heard the story of the young street vendor who burned himself there-a self immolation motivated people to hit the streets.  The name Mohammed Bouazizi is quite famous all across the Arab speaking world now.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

I don't recall any mention of an immolation in the American press.

As I said before, our local press has been pretty bad about reporting on these riots.  When they report on it at all, their only interest seems to be trying to one up each other with the most dramatic pics and vids of rioters in action.

Charlie Sheen's most recent drug escapade got more and better press coverage yesterday than the revolution in Egypt.

[Waitone]

As I said before, our local press has been pretty bad about reporting on these riots.  When they report on it at all, their only interest seems to be trying to one up each other with the most dramatic pics and vids of rioters in action.

And that is why our media (mostly main stream media but also fringe elements of alternative media) is increasingly irrelevant. 

[MicroBalrog]

Micro, it would be madness-today.  You can bet that a democracy in Egypt, which will likely be secular, is going to work on its military capability against Israel.  

Anymore in the wave of democracy, and israel is going to be gone inside of 50 years.  There's no way it can survive without the cooperation it gets from the existing regimes.

Problem:

1. Military capability is a function of overall cultural health. A society capable of producing a Western-grade military would not be a modern Arab society.

2. There's no guarantee Egypt will still be wanting to fight Israel after 50 years of democracy.

[Zardozimo Oprah Bannedalas]

I'm actually surprised that you haven't heard the story of the young street vendor who burned himself there-a self immolation motivated people to hit the streets.  The name Mohammed Bouazizi is quite famous all across the Arab speaking world now.

It's a weird culture where people who set themselves on fire are considered awesome.

[MicroBalrog]

It's a weird culture where people who set themselves on fire are considered awesome.

Uh? Self-sacrifice is awesome throughout the world.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

It's a weird culture where people who set themselves on fire are considered awesome.

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