Author Topic: Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants  (Read 2583 times)

RadioFreeSeaLab

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« on: April 06, 2006, 10:05:30 AM »
http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/04/06/D8GQKN182.html

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants


Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
Apr 06 1:09 PM US/Eastern
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By DAVID ESPO
AP Special Correspondent

WASHINGTON

Senate Republicans and Democrats closed in on a last-minute compromise Thursday on legislation opening the way to legal status and eventual citizenship for many of the 11 million immigrants living in the United States illegally.

President Bush praised the lawmakers' efforts, noting the details were unfinished, and encouraged them "to work hard and get the bill done." Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., said he had been assured the president supports the emerging measure.

As outlined, it would provide for enhanced border security, regulate the future flow of immigrants into the United States and offer legalized status to the millions of men, women and children in the country unlawfully.

"We've had a huge breakthrough" overnight, said Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn.

Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, the Democratic leader, agreed, but cautioned that the agreement had not yet been sealed.

Even so, the presence of both leaders at a celebratory news conference underlined the expectation that the Senate could pass the most sweeping immigration bill in two decades, and act before leaving on a long vacation at the end of the week.

The developments marked a turnaround from Wednesday, when it appeared negotiations had faltered. The key sticking point involved the 11 million illegal immigrants in the country, and the struggle to provide them an opportunity to gain legal status without exposing lawmakers to the political charge that they were advocating amnesty for lawbreakers.

While final details were not available, in general, the compromise would require illegal immigrants who have been in the United States between two years and five years to return to their home country briefly, then re-enter as temporary workers. They could then begin a process of seeking citizenship.

Illegal immigrants here longer than five years would not be required to return home; those in the country less than two years would be required to leave without assurances of returning, and take their place in line with others seeking entry papers.

Standing before television cameras after an appearance Thursday in Charlotte, N.C., Bush said he was pleased that Republicans and Democrats were working together.

"I appreciate their understanding that this needs to be a comprehensive immigration bill," the president said. "I recognize that there are still details that need to be worked out. I would encourage the members to work hard to get the bill done prior to the upcoming break."

Not everyone was satisfied.

"I'm not impressed," said Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama, who has criticized earlier versions of the measure as too lenient on lawbreakers. Sens. John Cornyn of Texas and Jon Kyl of Arizona joined him in criticizing the measure, as did Georgia Republicans Saxby Chambliss and Johnny Isakson.

Beyond the illegal immigrants, there were other thorny issues to be clarified. Senate leaders had yet to publicly unveil draft legislation to make sure that only legal workers were hired in the future, for example.

Nor was it clear what type of assurances, if any, Democrats had received from the White House and Republicans about compromise talks with the Republican-controlled House later this year. The House has approved legislation limited to border security, and while GOP leaders have signaled support for a broader measure, Democrats have expressed concern in recent days that they will be pressured to make unacceptable additional concessions to achieve a final compromise.

The closed-door negotiations proceeded as the Senate went through the motions on a test vote on an earlier version of immigration legislation.

Democrats needed 60 votes to prevail, and as expected, they fell far short. The attempt gained only 39 votes, while 60 senators were opposed.

In an ironic juxtaposition, the vote unfolded at the same time Frist, Reid and more than a dozen other senators were celebrating the breakthrough at the news conference.

"While it admittedly is not perfect, the choice we have to make is whether it is better than no bill, and the choice is decisive," said Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Earlier, Reid told reporters, "We're looking like we may be able to dance this afternoon."

That was a reference to remarks he made on the day he became party leader and said, "I always would rather dance than fight. But I know how to fight."

The issue has generated huge public rallies, exposed divisions within both political parties and already left an imprint on the midterm election campaigns for control of Congress.

Cardinal Roger Mahony of Los Angeles provided evidence of the emotion it has generated from 3,000 miles away when he urged Catholics to pray for passage of legislation allowing illegal immigrants to gain citizenship. The debate marks "one of the most critical weeks in the history of our country," he said.
Sounds to me like the Republicans just caved.  Not that I expected anything different.  This is all just a big show.  Our senators working tirelessly to come to a compromise.  Bull.

garyk/nm

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #1 on: April 06, 2006, 10:13:47 AM »
I just don't get this "time in country" thing. How is that going to be verified? You don't suppose any of them would lie, do you?

RadioFreeSeaLab

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #2 on: April 06, 2006, 10:19:32 AM »
Since there is no record of entry, I don't see how it could possibly be verified.

garyk/nm

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #3 on: April 06, 2006, 10:22:21 AM »
So if nothing can be proven, will they get the benefit of the doubt, or the boot? I suspect I already know the answer.

RadioFreeSeaLab

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2006, 10:23:31 AM »
What makes you think our Government will even bother enforcing this new law?  They haven't worried much about the current ones.

garyk/nm

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2006, 10:24:16 AM »
True dat. What was I thinking?

RadioFreeSeaLab

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2006, 10:26:03 AM »
Perhaps you were clinging to the hope that your elected representatives would actually represent you? Smiley

garyk/nm

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2006, 10:30:34 AM »
Hey! It could happen! ?
(right after the flying pigs make their guest appearance)

Standing Wolf

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2006, 06:02:21 PM »
The Republicrats and Democans can get along without my vote.
No tyrant should ever be allowed to die of natural causes.

The Rabbi

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2006, 05:38:18 AM »
And maybe someone here has a better suggestion?
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roo_ster

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2006, 06:16:25 AM »
Quote
And maybe someone here has a better suggestion?
1. Close down the border using a continuous physical barrier similar to the barrier the Israelis use to contain the Gaza Strip, networked sensors & commo, and heavy patrols by Border Patrol augmented by the National Guard & Reserve units doing their 2 week annual train-ups.  Shut.  It.  Down.

2. Those caught get to spend several months in a tent jail reminiscent of Joe Arpaio, the Sheriff of Maricopa County.  Feed them on $0.50/day, as he does.  Keep them long enough to destroy their hopes of making money this season and put a crimp in their style.  Their finger prints, photo, DNA, & other info kept on file.  Repeat offenders get to spend even more time in the middle of nowhere.  Folks who have seen the movie Holes, understand when I say, "send them to Camp Greenlake."  Then drop them back in their country of origin, preferably at the port farthest from the USA border by land.

3. Aggressively target employers of illegal aliens.  Start with comparing SSNs & TINs.  When a discrepancy occurs, investigate it and allow the employer to do the right thing.  If they do not do the right thing, leavy heavy fines & jail time.  A similar regimen employed against the black market/off the books illegal aliens employers.  Surveil known locations where illegals congregate & where employers pick them up.  Bust them & their employers.

4. Those illegals that show up for medical care get it...once.  Then, they get to spend time at "Camp Greenlake" and are subsequently deported.  Those who manage to birth their kids on US soil take them with.  Illegals that try to use other services get the "Camp Greenlake" treatment & a deportation.

5. Illegals caught committing other crimes serve their time and get a swift boot in the backside back toward their country of origin.

To sum up: make it diffucult to get in, make it impossible for them to get work if they get in.  Get the word out that the USA is no longer Mexico's & SA's dumping ground and safety valve.
Regards,

roo_ster

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SADShooter

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2006, 06:28:03 AM »
^Put the appropriate bill-making language in front of that and....Amen!
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The Rabbi

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2006, 09:41:23 AM »
Quote from: jfruser
Quote
And maybe someone here has a better suggestion?
1. Close down the border using a continuous physical barrier similar to the barrier the Israelis use to contain the Gaza Strip, networked sensors & commo, and heavy patrols by Border Patrol augmented by the National Guard & Reserve units doing their 2 week annual train-ups.  Shut.  It.  Down.

2. Those caught get to spend several months in a tent jail reminiscent of Joe Arpaio, the Sheriff of Maricopa County.  Feed them on $0.50/day, as he does.  Keep them long enough to destroy their hopes of making money this season and put a crimp in their style.  Their finger prints, photo, DNA, & other info kept on file.  Repeat offenders get to spend even more time in the middle of nowhere.  Folks who have seen the movie Holes, understand when I say, "send them to Camp Greenlake."  Then drop them back in their country of origin, preferably at the port farthest from the USA border by land.

3. Aggressively target employers of illegal aliens.  Start with comparing SSNs & TINs.  When a discrepancy occurs, investigate it and allow the employer to do the right thing.  If they do not do the right thing, leavy heavy fines & jail time.  A similar regimen employed against the black market/off the books illegal aliens employers.  Surveil known locations where illegals congregate & where employers pick them up.  Bust them & their employers.

4. Those illegals that show up for medical care get it...once.  Then, they get to spend time at "Camp Greenlake" and are subsequently deported.  Those who manage to birth their kids on US soil take them with.  Illegals that try to use other services get the "Camp Greenlake" treatment & a deportation.

5. Illegals caught committing other crimes serve their time and get a swift boot in the backside back toward their country of origin.

To sum up: make it diffucult to get in, make it impossible for them to get work if they get in.  Get the word out that the USA is no longer Mexico's & SA's dumping ground and safety valve.
1. We can't shut down the border between Iraq and Syria, even though that border is a fraction of the size of this one, and is inhabited mainly by hostiles.  And we have thousands of troops with heavy weaponry.  What makes you think this will work again?
2.And how much will that cost, given the tents, armed guards,etc?
3. And how many agents will need to be hired to police the tens of thousands of employers out there?  And if you make it tough, guess what?  Employers will not decide to hire only legals--they will decide to do something else and there goes all those jobs, even the ones enjoyed by legals.
4. Enforcement costs and costs to deport will be borne by whom exactly?  I propose a surtax on Texans of $1k a piece.  It's their fault.
So in fact those jobs that are "saved" for true-blue Americans will not go to legals at all.  They will go overseas or stop altogether.
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The Rabbi

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2006, 09:43:44 AM »
From this AM's Wall St Journal

Quote
Jobs Americans Won't Do
Want to make the country poorer? Close the borders.

Friday, April 7, 2006 12:01 a.m. EDT

President Bush is taking knocks from all sides in the immigration debate over his argument that the U.S. needs foreign workers to fill "jobs Americans don't want." Economists on both the left and right say Mr. Bush is ignoring the role of "prices"--and that more Americans would happily mow lawns and bus tables if those jobs paid more than they currently do.

Well, we're always happy to see leftish economists paying attention to prices. Would that they also did so when promoting minimum-wage laws and health-care mandates. Less helpful is to see allegedly free-market sorts embrace the idea that something called "the economy" can be closed off at the national border. These fair-weather free-marketeers need a little re-education on global labor markets.

Certainly if we could somehow seal the border--and good luck with that--the market would adjust to the shrinking supply of labor; wages and prices would adapt. The country could survive without foreign labor in the same way we cope with shortages of steel, or sugar for that matter. But economics is about trade-offs. So the real question isn't whether living in a closed economy is possible. It's whether the U.S. is better off moving in that direction.

Our answer is that a closed economy ultimately would make America a less competitive and hence poorer country--because we'd have less human capital, and because we'd be using the human resources we did have less efficiently. Among higher-skilled and -educated workers, pulling away the U.S. welcome mat means all of that talent would go to work creating wealth and jobs in other countries.

But keeping out foreign laborers for the alleged benefit of low-skilled U.S. workers is equally short-sighted. Yes, immigrants compete for these entry-level jobs most directly with Americans who lack a high-school diploma. But the percentage of Americans between 18 and 64 without a high-school degree has been dropping relentlessly for decades, which is a good thing. Even without immigration, poorly educated Americans would still have to compete in a global economy that increasingly places a premium on skills.

In any case, most economic studies have found only a very small negative immigration impact on the wages of even the lowest-skilled American workers. Restrictionists advertise the study by Harvard's George Borjas, who found the widest impact across all income levels. But Diana Furchtgott-Roth of the Hudson Institute points out that his study assumes that immigrants and native-born workers are perfect substitutes. In the real labor world, immigrants often fill niche markets and bring varied skills.

Immigrants also increase the demand for labor, not just the supply. That is, they are also consumers who create jobs by buying goods and housing here. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan often pointed out how immigration has been driving housing demand. And if immigrants really were "stealing" American jobs, we wouldn't have had the remarkable job growth of recent years.

Perhaps the biggest fallacy is that the same jobs that foreign workers now fill would exist in their absence. That's not likely to be the case. Seal the border, and what you'd see is not the same number of jobs at higher wages but, rather, fewer of these types of jobs overall in the U.S. This is certainly the case in parts of Europe, where some services (such as dry cleaning) are rare and cost a fortune.

"The biggest disruption probably would come in light manufacturing," says Dan Griswold, who follows immigration at the Cato Institute. "Our textile industry has managed to hang on to the extent that it has because North Carolina textile mills have be able to hire immigrants. The domestic carpet industry based in Georgia has managed to survive and thrive due to immigrant labor. The same holds true for meat-packing plants in the Midwest."

Eliminate the immigrant labor force and these jobs don't--presto!--start paying more to attract Americans. In a global economy, they're much more likely to disappear or move overseas as domestic employers find themselves less able to compete with foreign producers. And many of the same politicians who complained about "cheap" immigrant labor would then want to block the import of products that were once made here.

Businesses can't raise wages or prices willy-nilly without respect to the ability and willingness of consumers to pay for a good or service. The agriculture industry certainly would attract more Americans if it paid $50,000 a year to pick lettuce in the noonday sun, but not without raising the cost of food and other things. It would be more expensive to eat out, for example, and fewer people would do so as a result, affecting the restaurant industry, among others.

Unlike some of his critics, Mr. Bush appreciates the absurdity of closing off our markets to foreign labor but not to, say, foreign capital and foreign technology and foreign goods. If a company needs financing for a second plant, we don't limit its options to American sources of capital.

Mr. Bush also understands that immigrants play a key role in growing the U.S. economy, which doesn't exist in a vacuum and shouldn't have an immigration policy that pretends otherwise. The problem is not that 11 million foreigners are here working. The problem is that they're here illegally. Efforts to close off future flows, or deport illegal aliens already here en masse, would do economic harm to all Americans, both low- and high-income. Let's hope the Congress figures that out as well.
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Waitone

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2006, 03:17:22 PM »
Physical barriers work in some case but certainly not the whole length of the border.

In my perfect world my suggestions would be:
--Federales set up a database just like the national instant check system only targeted on SS and TIN.  Employers calls in and asks if the number is valid and gets an approval code.
--Employers get a 12 month amnesty from the time the database is functional.  During that time he can turn his workforce looking for "legal" employees.
--At the end of the 12 month amnesty the state and fed begin an aggressive workplace enforcement program.  Mr Businessperson gets caught with illegal workers he is immediately incarcerated complete with police department press release and perp walk.  Illegal employees are detained and cycled through the immigration system.  How long it takes is irrelevant since the employer is now footing the entire bill for the illegals legal representation, USG legal costs, court costs, illegal worker room and board, and eventual transportation back to country of origin.  After all the costs of deporting are assessed, then the government can assess fines.
--Cut off all welfare.  Stake out emergency rooms and welfare watering holes.  
--Since we need to get public support for identifying and deporting illegal immigrants I propose creating a bounty system whereby LEGAL immigrants, upon dropping a dime on ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS, would be awarded a crisp, new $100 bill for each person snagged upon presentation to authorities of evidence of legal status.  Legal immigrants are outraged over the BS they go through while illegals get it all for violating the law.
--The foregoing is a dream unless USG gets its freakin' act together and makes it easier to get into the US by people who want to become Americans.  
--No guest worker program since not one anywhere in the world is successful.  You don't want to become an American citizen?  Go somewhere else.

Thus endth my dream.
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roo_ster

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #15 on: April 09, 2006, 08:16:24 PM »
Quote from: The Rabbi
1. We can't shut down the border between Iraq and Syria, even though that border is a fraction of the size of this one, and is inhabited mainly by hostiles.  And we have thousands of troops with heavy weaponry.  What makes you think this will work again?
Yet, somehow, Israel shuts down the border between Gaza & Israel.  They manage to keep out folks who desperately want to get through to kill Jews.  The border-crossers are willing to die in the attempt.  IOW, some pretty determined border-crossers.

Quote
The 30 mile (52 kilometer) long barrier was constructed in 1994 by Israel under the leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin. It consists mainly of a wire fence with posts, sensors, and buffer zones. There are several crossing points in the barrier...

The barrier is augmented by an open observation area 300 meters wide on the Gaza side of the barrier. Israel claims that the barrier has been effective in preventing terrorists and suicide bombers from leaving Gaza. Since 1996, virtually all suicide bombers trying to leave Gaza have detonated their charges at the barrier's crossing points or were stopped while trying to cross the barrier elsewhere.
Quote
* During my time as Commander of Southern Command in the years 2000-2003, there were more than 400 attempts by Palestinians to cross into Israel, all of which failed.


* Together with rebuilding the fence, a key security element was the creation of a one-kilometer security buffer zone. In addition, we constructed high technology observation posts that enabled soldiers to monitor about six kilometers - day and night, and we provided the troops with new rules of engagement regarding anyone approaching this area.


* We have stopped about 30 percent of hostile actions near the fence and 70 percent inside the territory through offensive actions. In addition to the fence, we must continue to gather intelligence throughout the territories in order to be able to intercept Palestinian terrorists.
(jfruser added bold face)

The stated goal of the israeli gov't is to build a similar fence along the West Bank (681KM).

Oddly enough, this WB barrier, like the proposed barrier along the US/Meico border, was first a grassroots effort:
Quote
In June 2001 a grass roots organization called "Fence for Life - The Public Movement for The Security Fence" [4] began the grassroots effort for the construction of a continuous security fence. The movement was founded by people from all over Israel following the Dolphinarium terror attack.

The goal of the Movement, is to encourage the government to construction a Security Fence along Israel borders. "Fence for Life" urged the government to build a continuous Fence as speedily as possible, and without any connection to the political future of the areas it separates, with a goal of hermetically sealing off the Palestinian territories from Israeli population center to prevent the terrorist acts by Palestinians against the people living in Israel.
It can be done.  It is being done on our Air Force bases by Force Protection.  It is being done for other countries' borders with US companies as system integrators.  

Physical barriers, networked sensors, commo, new concepts of operations to take advantage of the new resources, personnel, & training.

Quote from: The Rabbi
2.And how much will that cost, given the tents, armed guards,etc?
I do not have estimates, but I can compare resources between the USA & Israel.  Israel is already building the WB barrier & plans to complete it.  How might they afford it?

*Barrier Length (KM)*   
US/Mexico Border:    3141.0
West Bank Barrier Length (Proposed):    681.0
Ratio:   4.6

*Population*   
US Population:   298444215
Israeli Population:   6352117
Ratio:   47.0

*GDP ($ billions)*   
US   12470.0
Israeli   121.2
Ratio:   102.9

The barrier we would build would be 4.6 times longer than the WB barrier.  I think we just may be able to scrape up the cash, considering we have 47 times the population of Israel and our economy is 103 times larger than Israel's.

As with Israel, it is a matter of will, not wallet.

Oh, security is also one of the duties of our gov't.  COTUS grants fed.gov the authority.

Quote from: The Rabbi
3. And how many agents will need to be hired to police the tens of thousands of employers out there?  And if you make it tough, guess what?  Employers will not decide to hire only legals--they will decide to do something else and there goes all those jobs, even the ones enjoyed by legals.
I do not have estimates of the number of agents.  Heck, first I would hire some skilled database folks to work the IRS and Soc Sec Admin databases to get at the low hanging fruit of SSN/TIN mismatches.

I fully expect employers to react to the new reality.  Some will invest in more capital to make the more expensive labor more productive, some will muddle through, & some will go out of whatever labor-intensive business they currenlty run.  

Products & services heavily dependant on illegal alien labor will see an initial rise in cost/price, but not as much as you'd think due to capital investments, innovation, and tapping currently underutilized labor.

Remember, it is already illegal to hire illegal aliens.

Quote from: The Rabbi
4. Enforcement costs and costs to deport will be borne by whom exactly?  I propose a surtax on Texans of $1k a piece.  It's their fault.
Border enforcement is a job for fed.gov.  The same taxpayers who pay for mohair subsidies and yet another bridge named after Sen Roert Byrd will bear the costs.

$1000 for the implementation of all my proposed measures?  Cool deal!  I'd likely break even in 5-10 years, given my current location and property tax burden, after all the work for illegals dries up, we clamp down on newcomers, and those currently in the US go back home, willingly or otherwise.

BTW, Texas is now part of the USA, so fed.gov is responsible for border security.

Quote from: The Rabbi
So in fact those jobs that are "saved" for true-blue Americans will not go to legals at all.  They will go overseas or stop altogether.
Outsourcing vs Illegal Alien Labor:
I and other taxpayers don't have to pay for the health care of Chinese prison-camp labor.  If they have a child, that child does not become a US citizen with even stronger claims to the US welfare state.  Also, we don't have to educate that kid.  If that is the choice, outsource it, baby!

Some subset of jobs currently done by illegals will remain.  To make it profitable, however, employers who formerly humped their neighbors for labor subsidies will have to change their business model...or go do something more productive and less parasitic.

Sources for quotations & figures:
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/us.html
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/is.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_West_Bank_barrier
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_Gaza_Strip_barrier
http://www.answers.com/topic/united-states-mexico-border
http://www.jcpa.org/brief/brief004-12.htm

--------------------

Jobs Americans Won't Do
What a slimey and dishonest article.  As is usual, it tries to conflate illegal aliens with legal immigrants and residents.

Quote
Our answer is that a closed economy ultimately would make America a less competitive and hence poorer country--because we'd have less human capital, and because we'd be using the human resources we did have less efficiently. Among higher-skilled and -educated workers, pulling away the U.S. welcome mat means all of that talent would go to work creating wealth and jobs in other countries.
1.  Having secure borders != closed economy
2.  All human capital is not of equal economic value
3.  In the absence of super-cheap labor, capital investment in produtivity-increasing devices, etc increases.  We cripple ourselves vis-a-vis innovation by relying on low-skilled labor.
4.  We will continue to brain-drain the rest of the world by creaming their best & bightest who we will let come on our terms.

How did we ever manage to get the crops in or mow our lawns before the inlux of illegal aliens?
Regards,

roo_ster

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Moondoggie

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #16 on: April 10, 2006, 05:21:19 AM »
Face the truth, folks.

We have become France.

We're not going to do anything.  This bill/law is a farce.  There will be no enforcement.

Menawhile, hundreds of thousands of illegals protest in our streets demanding dignity while we and our government stand by and watch.

Pathetic.

Rome burns, Nero fiddles, film at 11.
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The Rabbi

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #17 on: April 10, 2006, 08:01:42 AM »
Talk about comparing apples to hedgehogs.
The Israeli border is 30 miles.  It keeps out terrorists intent on blowing up Israeli citizens.  In 3 years they had 400 attempts to cross.  They are effective only 30% of the time, the remainder of effectiveness caused by heavily armed troops sweeping through the area.
The US border is 3100km.  The purpose of the fence would be to keep out people looking for work.  There are probably 400 attempts a night to cross.  There is no possibility of sweeping the area in Mexico with troops.
Anyone who sees a parallel here is dreaming.
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roo_ster

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #18 on: April 10, 2006, 11:46:00 AM »
Quote from: The Rabbi
Talk about comparing apples to hedgehogs.
The Israeli border is 30 miles.  It keeps out terrorists intent on blowing up Israeli citizens.  In 3 years they had 400 attempts to cross.  They are effective only 30% of the time, the remainder of effectiveness caused by heavily armed troops sweeping through the area.
The US border is 3100km.  The purpose of the fence would be to keep out people looking for work.  There are probably 400 attempts a night to cross.  There is no possibility of sweeping the area in Mexico with troops.
Anyone who sees a parallel here is dreaming.
Israel is doing to the 681KM West Bank barrier what it did to the 30KM Gaza barrier.

With regard to the WB Barrier:
Quote
As of January 2006, approximately 31% has been constructed; another 16.5 % is under construction; 43% has been approved and the remaining 9.5% requires final approval.
So, the Israelis have ~210KM of the WB barrier finished as I write this.

Of those 210KM, what has been the effect?
Quote
Israeli statistics indicate that the barrier has drastically reduced the number of Palestinian infiltrations and suicide bombings and other attacks on civilians in Israel and in Israeli settlements, and Israeli officials assert that completion of the barrier will make it even more effective in stopping these attacks since "An absolute halt in terrorist activities has been noticed in the West Bank areas where the fence has been constructed".

Israeli officers, including the head of the Shin Bet, quoted in the newspaper Maariv, have claimed that in the areas where the barrier was complete, the number of hostile infiltrations has decreased to almost zero. Maariv also stated that Palestinian militants, including a senior member of Islamic Jihad, had confirmed that the barrier made it much harder to conduct attacks inside Israel.
(bold face courtesy of jfruser)

Israel is building the 681KM WB barrier and has seen extremely positive results where they have built the now-standing 210KM worth of it.  That is a whole lot more than a mere 30KM.

Quote from: The Rabbi
They are effective only 30% of the time, the remainder of effectiveness caused by heavily armed troops sweeping through the area.
A complete mis-reading of the source material.  From the source material, that have been successful 100% of the time.  The 30/70 split refers to methodology, not success rate.  You might refer to my original post, point #1:
Quote from: jfruser
1. Close down the border using a continuous physical barrier similar to the barrier the Israelis use to contain the Gaza Strip, networked sensors & commo, and heavy patrols by Border Patrol augmented by the National Guard & Reserve units doing their 2 week annual train-ups.  Shut.  It.  Down.
I bold-faced the bit about our "heavily armed troops sweeping through the area" just so that part wasn't overlooked.  It need not be on the Mexican side of the border, as we have plenty of terrain to train our boys up in the fine infantry skills of patrolling, ambushes, and raids.  It would be good training before sendiing our boys off to Iraq or other points east.

The thing about barriers is not that they are 100% effective in stopping each and every fence-jumper.  Barriers provide two things:
1. Time.  Slow down the border crosser to allow the border patrollers time to catch them.
2. Channelization.  Just as water follows a downhill path of least resistance, so do groups of people.  Funnel them to where it is convenient for our boys to corral them up & send them off.
 
Effectiveness:
The Rabbi, you might as well give it up.  Barriers along with patrols have been shown effective in the past on many occasions, not just along the Gaza/WB/Israel borders.  We can be even more effective nowadays, with the implementation of networked sensors, comms, sensor fusion, etc.

Cost:
The cost for the USA to build a Mexico/US barrier will be a lighter burden for the USA than the WB barrier will be for the Israelis.  Yes, it is 4.6 times more border to secure, but we have 100 times the resources of Israel.

Numbers
Yep, more illegals want to get into the US than splodey-dopes want to get into Israel.  Implement measures designed to deny them a way to make any money or sponge off the taxpayer and the numbers would decrease dramatically.  Just as when GWB made noise about a guest worker/amnesty program & the illegals came in even greater numbers...when their relatives tell them they can't find work to save their lives, the numbers clawing their way into the US will abate.  In a similar manner, many currently here will filter back into Mexico of their own accord.  Those that need assistance finding the door can be accomodated.

Determination
I may not like the suicide bombers, but there is no illegal alien employee that can touch 'em for determination.

Fundamentally, it is a matter of will.  The Israelis have mustered the will.  We can, too.

Sources:
Previously listed.
Regards,

roo_ster

“Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.”
----G.K. Chesterton

The Rabbi

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #19 on: April 10, 2006, 12:42:34 PM »
I might as well give it up because if I showed you what it would cost and what the effect would be you still wouldnt be persuaded.  Actually nothing would persuade you.  It hasnt already.  You have already mis-read your own sources so there is no chance of your reading anything else correctly.
Fortunately, the fence idea is a non-starter, aint-gonna-happen, D-E-D dead.
That is so for logistical reasons (already hashed out), political reasons, economic reasons, and probably a few others.  The benefits are ill-defined and elusive.
So no one has offered a workable solution (making employers responsible for enforcement of Federal laws seems like a dumb idea on the face of it).
But on the other hand, the reform in the Senate is also dead and we are right back to square one.
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Firethorn

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #20 on: April 10, 2006, 01:39:42 PM »
Another part of the plan would be to impliment a true guest worker program, allowing people to come in legally.  You can then use them to replace the 'cheap illegal labor'.  They might not be quite as cheap, but they're legal, which, combined with hefty penalties for hiring illegals, makes hiring an illegal not worth it.

Headless Thompson Gunner

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #21 on: April 10, 2006, 01:53:52 PM »
Quote from: Firethorn
Another part of the plan would be to impliment a true guest worker program, allowing people to come in legally.  You can then use them to replace the 'cheap illegal labor'.  They might not be quite as cheap, but they're legal, which, combined with hefty penalties for hiring illegals, makes hiring an illegal not worth it.
NOOOO!!!  We can't do that!  That's President Bush's idea, and anything HE proposes is BAAAD!  

Get with the program, man.

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« Reply #22 on: April 10, 2006, 03:44:42 PM »
Quote from: Firethorn
Another part of the plan would be to impliment a true guest worker program, allowing people to come in legally.  You can then use them to replace the 'cheap illegal labor'.  They might not be quite as cheap, but they're legal, which, combined with hefty penalties for hiring illegals, makes hiring an illegal not worth it.
That's a reasonable plan.
Interestingly when they strengthened border controls in 1984 or so they made the problem worse.  Previously it was pretty easy to get back and forth and migrants would come in, work for a while, and then go back to their families.  After the change in policy it was harder to go back and forth so they just stayed.
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« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2006, 12:36:44 PM »
Quote from: jfruser
Quote from: The Rabbi
Talk about comparing apples to hedgehogs.
The Israeli border is 30 miles.  It keeps out terrorists intent on blowing up Israeli citizens.  In 3 years they had 400 attempts to cross.  They are effective only 30% of the time, the remainder of effectiveness caused by heavily armed troops sweeping through the area.
The US border is 3100km.  The purpose of the fence would be to keep out people looking for work.  There are probably 400 attempts a night to cross.  There is no possibility of sweeping the area in Mexico with troops.
Anyone who sees a parallel here is dreaming.
Israel is doing to the 681KM West Bank barrier what it did to the 30KM Gaza barrier.

With regard to the WB Barrier:
Quote
As of January 2006, approximately 31% has been constructed; another 16.5 % is under construction; 43% has been approved and the remaining 9.5% requires final approval.
So, the Israelis have ~210KM of the WB barrier finished as I write this.

Of those 210KM, what has been the effect?
Quote
Israeli statistics indicate that the barrier has drastically reduced the number of Palestinian infiltrations and suicide bombings and other attacks on civilians in Israel and in Israeli settlements, and Israeli officials assert that completion of the barrier will make it even more effective in stopping these attacks since "An absolute halt in terrorist activities has been noticed in the West Bank areas where the fence has been constructed".

Israeli officers, including the head of the Shin Bet, quoted in the newspaper Maariv, have claimed that in the areas where the barrier was complete, the number of hostile infiltrations has decreased to almost zero. Maariv also stated that Palestinian militants, including a senior member of Islamic Jihad, had confirmed that the barrier made it much harder to conduct attacks inside Israel.
(bold face courtesy of jfruser)

Israel is building the 681KM WB barrier and has seen extremely positive results where they have built the now-standing 210KM worth of it.  That is a whole lot more than a mere 30KM.

Quote from: The Rabbi
They are effective only 30% of the time, the remainder of effectiveness caused by heavily armed troops sweeping through the area.
A complete mis-reading of the source material.  From the source material, that have been successful 100% of the time.  The 30/70 split refers to methodology, not success rate.  You might refer to my original post, point #1:
Gee, I guess the barrier isnt all that effective after all.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060417/ap_on_re_mi_ea/israel_palestinians;_ylt=ArNhL601IaZYhDnpfTnmnMys0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--
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roo_ster

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Congress Nears Deal on Illegal Immigrants
« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2006, 06:57:42 PM »
Quote from: The Rabbi (TR)
TR, the article you linked does not disclose where the bomber came from.  Are you assuming the bomber was both:
1. From Gaza
2. Able to smuggle explosives out of Gaza via some manner (through checkpoints, tunnels, gate-crashing, fence-jumping)
Such assumptions are not supported by the data provided by the article*.

For the sake of argument, let us assume that the bomber was both from Gaza and he managed to smuggle his explosives out despite the barriers, cameras, and human efforts of the Isreali security forces.  That would be a grand total of ONE successful splodeydope in 12 years of the barrier's existence.

Those of us who work in the real world of complex systems analysis & design would consider the miniscule failure rate of roughly 1/1200 for such a large (30KM) system over 12 years to be a scintillating success.  I would be much more than satisfied if the proposed border barrier between the US & Mexico performed to that standard.  No, it does not reach the 6th sigma of performance, but so few processes & systems do.  In the case of a border barrier, 6 sigma performance is not necessary, especially in conjunction with vigorous internal enforcement.

* To be blunt, TR, you don't deal well with facts & data.  Your strength is the facile dismissal and convenient assumption, not analysis of data.

I am reminded of an article I read online a while back:
Quote
The articulate and affluent who profit from illegal immigration look down their noses at anyone who wants to reduce it. They dont debate dissenters; they dismiss them. Their most effective ploy has been to insinuate that only shallow people think deeply about immigration. The more profound sort of intellect, the fashionable imply, displays an insouciant heedlessness about the long-term impact of immigration.

Yet the well-educated and well-to-do arent expected to subject their own children to the realities of living among the diverse. They search out homes removed by distance or doormen from concentrations of illegal aliensalthough not so far that the immigrants cant come and clean their houses tax-free. As our Ascendancy of the Sensitive sees it, that their views are utterly contradicted by how they order their daily lives is proof not of their hypocrisy but of how elevated their thinking is.
Regards,

roo_ster

“Fallacies do not cease to be fallacies because they become fashions.”
----G.K. Chesterton