Pandering to the base in this election cycle will be death. The only way to get independants and (D)'s over is to talk about jobs, jobs, jobs. On your second point, kind of. I expect this election cycle to see the left trying to deflect the jobs discussion as much as possible and make it about gay marriage, etc.
I don't know about that. That backfired on them in 2004, when social conservatives turned out in high numbers to vote for irrational marriage amendments, and against Kerry/Edwards. On the other hand, they may think they need to pander to their own base (not homosexuals, so much as irrationalists), by pushing the issue. Fortunately, irrational marriage mostly sells to judges; the electorate tends to vote against it, when they won't vote on much of anything else.
You're cracking me up, though. You think that jobs, jobs, jobs is not pandering to the base; only responding sensibly to irrational marriage demands is pandering.
But keep in mind, no one's saying the GOP should try to make this into the marriage election. We're just pointing out the fact borne out in past elections, that being squishy on social issues (when pressed) loses votes.
Edit: changed "bans" to "amendments." The amendments might ban the legal recognition of irrational marriages, but the word "ban" encourages the lie that irrational marriage is an individual rights issue.