Author Topic: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!  (Read 18406 times)

erictank

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #50 on: August 20, 2011, 06:13:31 PM »
I think you dropped a zero.
Gasoline is 46.4 MJ/kg, which is 5860 Wh/lb, or closer to 40x batteries.
Assuming transmission and road losses are the same, a 33% ICE efficiency, and giving EV's a 50% bonus from regenerative braking and more efficiency at part throttle (note, part-throttle pumping losses can be eliminated as BMW did with their no-throttle VANOS, or with a diesel, and stop-start on engines eliminates the idle penalty), batteries would still need a 10x improvement to match energy density.  Of course, the actual drive system is lighter with an EV, so that mass can be used for battery, so let's give the EV another 100% benefit when comparing total fuel+drivetrain mass, and it's still 5x (1265 Wh/kg).  Now, some proposed flow-through batteries, coupled with pulsed peak storage (advanced ultracaps) -could- achieve this.  But unless it's nuclear or some other non-CO2 emitting plant on the other end of the grid, the carbon footprint remains roughly the same...or worse, as a coal plant emits 1.5-2x the co2 as a modern advanced diesel for a given energy output (and I'm also neglecting the charge/discharge round-trip efficiency of the battery, power management system, motor controller, external charger, grid transport, and motor efficiency, which when combined yield a 25-30% hit on the EV).

ALSO, hydrocarbons are fungible, we can get them from just about anywhere (albeit at potentially widely varying costs), while EV's require rare earths for advanced magnets (90+% from one country, china) and lithium for batteries (75+% IIRC from one country--Bolivia)...so we replace a fungible, world-wide (and synthesizable from electricity...search for my other threads) material with a rare, non-synthesizable, potentially politically limited resource.

Overall, my vision of the future is a synthetic methanol/Dimethylether based liquid transport fuel market, powering advanced high-pressure turbocharged engines, with the fuels created from nuclear generated electricity.  Ultra-high power (got to love 100+ octane), zero carbon footprint, maximum re-use of existing infrastructure, and overall better round trip efficiency with no externally politically controlled resource requirements.

"Hmm. Your ideas are intriguing to me and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter."   =D

280plus

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #51 on: August 20, 2011, 07:12:15 PM »
 We bought a POS 2005 Monte. Nothing but issues, all kinds that they couldn't figure out. Traction control, A/C, check engine lights. You name it.

You can rest assured we'll never buy another GM product again.
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kgbsquirrel

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #52 on: August 21, 2011, 11:32:19 AM »
Hawk, to be fair standards of safety, acceleration, and comfort have changed quite a bit in the last 29 years.  Even if you could convince people to by that civic now with manual windows, am/fm stereo, no sound deadening and 1960's (at best) suspension, it would be illegal to sell it as it doesn't meet mandatory fed.gov safety standards.  Or emissions for that matter.

All that stuff weighs something, and it takes more power to move it all.  And even more power to move it in a fashion that is acceptable to today's car buying public.

Comparing econo boxes from 30 years ago to today's econo boxes is apples to oranges.

In 2004 I bought a new Civic coupe because I was a dirt poor E-2 that needed to escape the base on the weekends. Still have it. It gets 36 in city and 40-42 on the highway. So Honda has managed to meet all those newfangled safety requirements and improve the millage a bit from Hawkmoon's old ride. Someone seems to be on the right track here, and it ain't GM.

Just for the sake of information, my car weighs 2,750 lbs, has 105,000 miles on the odometer, and is governed to 112 mph, which it can do handily with four people in it and a loaded trunk. The original sticker advertised millage was 32/38, as to the increased millage, well, I consider myself a slightly more competent driver than most.  ;)

White Horseradish

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #53 on: August 21, 2011, 11:47:28 AM »
In 2004 I bought a new Civic coupe because I was a dirt poor E-2 that needed to escape the base on the weekends.
Somehow "dirt poor" and "bought new" don't mesh for me...
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kgbsquirrel

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #54 on: August 21, 2011, 05:35:23 PM »
Somehow "dirt poor" and "bought new" don't mesh for me...

Are you trying to troll or are you just completely ignorant to the prices of econobox cars and military pay scales?

White Horseradish

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #55 on: August 21, 2011, 06:31:15 PM »
Are you trying to troll or are you just completely ignorant to the prices of econobox cars and military pay scales?
I'm just amused at what constitutes poverty in various people's eyes. I'm not trying to denigrate you in some way, it's simply the difference of your experiences and mine. I have never bought a new car.
Political tags - such as royalist, communist, democrat, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth - are never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire.

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Iain

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #56 on: August 21, 2011, 06:39:32 PM »
I won't, until that percentage lost over the first three or four years is disposable to me. Driving a 52 plate Civic that I bought back in April, 74k on the clock. Will keep it until keeping it on the road is uneconomic.

Anyway, the ire directed at electric cars is amusing to me. I get that part of it is the GM bailout, and that I understand. Much of the rest of it is quite possibly doomed to the same historical judgment as complaints like: "It's noisy", "it's dangerous, someone should walk out in front with a flag" and "where will I get the manure for my garden?" We will see, there's a long way to go on what is still a relatively infant technology.
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mtnbkr

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #57 on: August 21, 2011, 06:50:02 PM »
I think the point is, you don't call yourself "dirt poor" if you're going out buying new cars of any stripe.

The 2004 Civic ranged from $13k+ depending on trim and options.  One website of Army pay scales says an E2 with less than 2 years gets $1400ish/month (2010 salary figures, probably less in 2004).  An online auto loan calculator says a 10k loan at 7.5% (not unreasonable in 2004) for 4 years is $244/month (assuming a $3k down-payment, which may not be reasonable for an E2).  That's about a third of one paycheck.  That's a greater amount percentage-wise than I'd be comfortable putting into a car payment each month.

Chris

White Horseradish

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #58 on: August 21, 2011, 07:32:08 PM »
I won't, until that percentage lost over the first three or four years is disposable to me. Driving a 52 plate Civic that I bought back in April, 74k on the clock. Will keep it until keeping it on the road is uneconomic.

Anyway, the ire directed at electric cars is amusing to me. I get that part of it is the GM bailout, and that I understand. Much of the rest of it is quite possibly doomed to the same historical judgment as complaints like: "It's noisy", "it's dangerous, someone should walk out in front with a flag" and "where will I get the manure for my garden?" We will see, there's a long way to go on what is still a relatively infant technology.
To me it comes down to a couple of things. One, is climate. I have never seen an electric car come out of or be tested in Canada or the Midwest. They all seem to be concentrated around warmer climates, like California. I want to know how it will handle in a foot of snow, what happens to batteries and, consequently, range at -20 with the heater and wipers going, how the electric components will stand up to road salt. Those are winter realities of where I live. Instead, reviews are happy to tell me range under ideal conditions and how well it accelerates. The other, is that thing about not buying a new car. Everyone who talks of replacing ICE with electricity assumes that a buyer of a new gas car will buy a new electric car instead and keep buying new electric cars on some sort of schedule. How are used electrics going to be? Will it be possible to do maintenance and get parts? Will environmental fees for disposing of old batteries be bearable?
Political tags - such as royalist, communist, democrat, populist, fascist, liberal, conservative, and so forth - are never basic criteria. The human race divides politically into those who want people to be controlled and those who have no such desire.

Robert A Heinlein

Azrael256

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #59 on: August 21, 2011, 09:49:01 PM »
Quote
That's a greater amount percentage-wise than I'd be comfortable putting into a car payment each month.

How many E2s do you know with great financial sense?  I've known a few smart fellows, but the job doesn't require accounting wizardry.

mtnbkr

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #60 on: August 21, 2011, 09:59:59 PM »
How many E2s do you know with great financial sense?  I've known a few smart fellows, but the job doesn't require accounting wizardry.

True.  Unless things have changed since I was in school (near Ft Bragg and Pope AFB), this is the demographic that takes their first paycheck and buys a shiny new sport bike or V8 Mustang without having owned either previously.  There's a reason Mil Brass wants (or at least wanted to in the past) to close down payday loan companies near bases.

Chris

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #61 on: August 22, 2011, 02:41:22 AM »
The reason for the ire against electric cars is that despite their current (and some could argue historical) limitations, They are being "pushed" on us by our .gov, who are using subsidies to promote a unmarketable technology.

It does not live up to it's claim and it's literally "smoke and mirrors".
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #62 on: August 22, 2011, 08:16:38 AM »
Not only that, but the average E2 is living in the barracks and eating at the chow hall.  100% of thier income is disposable.
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280plus

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #63 on: August 22, 2011, 08:32:27 AM »
yep, if your living off the .gov 100% the paycheck you get is virtually 100% disposable except you should be saving for retirement. Having a car provides a means to get away from the whole thing when time permits. I know I was one that needed to be away whenever I could.

I've always considered buying new cars a waste of money in the long run so I bought junks back then and I still do now.  :lol:
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Monkeyleg

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #64 on: August 22, 2011, 09:52:53 AM »
I've never been in the military, so I can't speak to the pay.

I can speak to the issue of subsidization of electric cars, though, and what I have to say is that I don't want to have to pay for someone else's eco-status car with my tax dollars. If it's such a great idea, then let the automakers charge the appropriate price and let the market decide if it's worth it.

I'm sure that we'll get a battery technology that will win over buyers of gas-powered cars, but it will be created by a private company looking to make money, not by politicians trying to score points with the environmental crowd by spending someone else's money.

280plus

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #65 on: August 22, 2011, 10:21:05 AM »
Well said.  =)
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #66 on: August 22, 2011, 11:37:14 AM »
Anyway, the ire directed at electric cars is amusing to me. I get that part of it is the GM bailout, and that I understand. Much of the rest of it is quite possibly doomed to the same historical judgment as complaints like: "It's noisy", "it's dangerous, someone should walk out in front with a flag" and "where will I get the manure for my garden?" We will see, there's a long way to go on what is still a relatively infant technology.

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #67 on: August 24, 2011, 10:52:58 PM »
birdman:

Quote
Overall, my vision of the future is a synthetic methanol/Dimethylether based liquid transport fuel market, powering advanced high-pressure turbocharged engines, with the fuels created from nuclear generated electricity.  Ultra-high power (got to love 100+ octane), zero carbon footprint, maximum re-use of existing infrastructure, and overall better round trip efficiency with no externally politically controlled resource requirements.

From your keyboard to G-d's  ears.

birdman

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #68 on: August 25, 2011, 07:36:25 AM »
birdman:

From your keyboard to G-d's  ears.

We can only hope, I want 1200hp out of my gtr. :)

TechMan

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #69 on: August 27, 2011, 09:04:35 PM »
It's Time To Kill The Electric Car, Drive A Stake Through Its Heart And Burn The Corpse

http://seekingalpha.com/article/289828-it-s-time-to-kill-the-electric-car-drive-a-stake-through-its-heart-and-burn-the-corpse
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Hawkmoon - Never underestimate another person's capacity for stupidity. Any time you think someone can't possibly be that dumb ... they'll prove you wrong.

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AmbulanceDriver

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #70 on: August 28, 2011, 11:08:19 AM »
It's Time To Kill The Electric Car, Drive A Stake Through Its Heart And Burn The Corpse

http://seekingalpha.com/article/289828-it-s-time-to-kill-the-electric-car-drive-a-stake-through-its-heart-and-burn-the-corpse

That was a *really* interesting article.....
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birdman

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #71 on: August 28, 2011, 12:25:34 PM »
It's Time To Kill The Electric Car, Drive A Stake Through Its Heart And Burn The Corpse

http://seekingalpha.com/article/289828-it-s-time-to-kill-the-electric-car-drive-a-stake-through-its-heart-and-burn-the-corpse

Very cool article, I'll have to cite it when I make these arguments.

From the article:
"When Edison was complaining about batteries, specific energies of 25 wh/kg were common. A hundred and thirty years later specific energies of 150 wh/kg are pushing the envelope. A six-fold improvement over 130 years does not provide a rational basis for prevailing expectations."

"If China can't make the numbers work in a command economy that produces over 95% of the world's rare earth metals, nobody can. The inescapable conclusion for investors is that resource dependent alternative energy and vehicle electrification schemes must fail."

"Using batteries as fuel tank replacements is a zero-sum game that consumes huge quantities of metals for the sole purpose of substituting electricity for oil. Since roughly 45% of domestic electric power is from coal fired plants and that percentage will decline very slowly, the only rational conclusion is that electric drive is unconscionable waste and pollution masquerading as conservation."

From my posts:
...batteries would still need a 10x improvement to match energy density.  Of course, the actual drive system is lighter with an EV, so that mass can be used for battery, so let's give the EV another 100% benefit when comparing total fuel+drivetrain mass, and it's still 5x (1265 Wh/kg)...But unless it's nuclear or some other non-CO2 emitting plant on the other end of the grid, the carbon footprint remains roughly the same...or worse, as a coal plant emits 1.5-2x the co2 as a modern advanced diesel for a given energy output...

ALSO, hydrocarbons are fungible, we can get them from just about anywhere (albeit at potentially widely varying costs), while EV's require rare earths for advanced magnets (90+% from one country, china) and lithium for batteries (75+% IIRC from one country--Bolivia)...so we replace a fungible, world-wide (and synthesizable from electricity...search for my other threads) material with a rare, non-synthesizable, potentially politically limited resource.

Always nice to find other sources :)

If others are wondering what a great book is that addresses many of the points I've been making in these kind of threads, check out "Power Hungry" by Bryce.  He really breaks it all down (and the advanced nuclear pebble bed he mentions in his N to N chapter being worked at MIT was a project I was involved in back at school, so I have to give him props for that :). )

TechMan

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #72 on: August 28, 2011, 09:10:33 PM »
AD, glad you found it interesting.

Birdman, when I ran across the article, I immediately though you would like to see the article.
Quote
Hawkmoon - Never underestimate another person's capacity for stupidity. Any time you think someone can't possibly be that dumb ... they'll prove you wrong.

Bacon and Eggs - A day's work for a chicken; A lifetime commitment for a pig.
Stupidity will always be its own reward.
Bad decisions make good stories.

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birdman

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #73 on: August 29, 2011, 07:52:55 AM »
As a caveat, flow through batteries (liquid, non-atmosphere dependent "fuel" cells) do have some interesting advantages, in that the bulk of their mass is a flowing liquid, and thus their tank could be emptied/refilled quickly in a service-station like infrastructure, but there are some aspects of this that bear consideration.
1. Their peak power output is limited compared to conventional batteriesof the same total system mass, as only a small fraction of the electrolyte is active at any given time, necessitating a small rechargeable one or two stage (e.g. High peak power LiFePo or LiFePo plus ultra cap) additional battery to provide for peaking power (accelerating) and regenerative braking, which increases system mass
2. The materials used for the flowing electrolyte must have toxicity/volatility/danger less than or equal to conventional fuels otherwise the protections will further increase system mass
3. The need to both fill and drain when refueling requires more complex infrastructure, and the need to measure the drained fluid to determine how much to charge the customer (since the guild continuously flows, you deplete it as a whole, and then recharge to 100% capacity, regardless of actual amount "used"), increasing infrastructure cost
6. The infrastructure must add charging equipment for the electrolyte at each facility, increasing cost
7. The energy densities are still much less than combustion fuels
8. It still depends where the energy comes from--if its combustion on the other end, it's a net energy loser, as the round trip charge/discharge efficiency combinedwith generation/transmission efficiency makes it worse than  just burning the fuel in a vehicle (this is why intracity buses, which have short routes, regular depot stops, and access to concentrated infrastructure (they always refuel at the depot) seem like ideal use cases for modern electrics, but use natural gas economically--it's more efficient than paying for natural gas generated electricity, and the capital costs of the infrastructure and per-bus equipment (batteries vs conventional engines) outweigh any benefits

Conventional fuel cells (liquid reformed hydrocarbon or hydrogen plus air) are a unique possibility, but still have major problems:
1. The storage density, and energy required to do so of hydrogen is low (density) and high (cost of compression/liquification)
2. While a fuel-cell/electric motor may be double the efficiency of a combustion engine, the efficiency cost of electrolyzers and power transmission make the overall system only marginally more efficient than combustion (provided the electricity comes from combustion plants)--and making hydrogen from natural gas is a net energy loser in this math.  If the power comes from nuclear, then the round trip efficiency can be better, more on that later.
3. Methanol reforming fuel cells (which can use methanol as a fuel, eliminating the need for expensive and energy costly, low density hydrogen storage) are incapable of long life and are low power density devices, and have lower efficiencies, thus making them unsuitable for vehicle applications without highly sought after cell membrane technologies that are heavily invested in, but progress is elusive.
4. While it is possible to generate hydrogen with nuclear power, and use fuel cells to extract the highest possible round trip efficiency from the fuel, and the overall round trip efficiency may be higher
Fuel cell: 33% plant * 90% transmission * 75% electrolysis * 90% storage (10% energy lost to store) * 80% fuel-cell plus motor equals 16% total. Vs
My methanl strategy: 33% plant * 75% synthetic methanol process * 33% engine equals 9% total
So the fuel cell has nearly double the round trip efficiency, but requires not only all the vehicles be converted to fuel-cell electric, but all the service stations converted to hydrogen pumps and storage and large scale electrolyzers at enormous infrastructure cost vs no costly changes to any of the vehicles or infrastructure, except for refinery-like (large scale, but few in number) chemical plants at the large power plants--which already have the large land area due to exclusion zones.
With the reduced capital cost, it's far easier to "switch" to my strategy, and since methanol storage is far easier in vast quantities than hydrogen, plants can run at 100% all the time, and use excess energy to make the fuel (hell, even unreliable (wind) power could be used as the conversion process could be throttled rapidly to allow any amount of generation to be used), and large scale storage (just like gasoline and petroleum) allows for smooth (inelastic) supply rates at widely varying levels of demand and generation.

You can see why I like my idea--it gives consumers everything they like about normal vehicles (can fill up anywhere, long range, more than enough power), while minimizing infrastructure changes and costs, while resulting in a carbon-neutral fuel cycle--true, you use more uranium or thorium, but the fuel cost isn't a big driver for plants, especially if it allows for large base load plants to run at 100% throttle all the time when they are most efficient, and the electrically driven synthesis process is used as a load-leveler: plants could be sized for peak electrical only load, and the surplus capacity (about 50% on average average to peak loading) used to generate the transportation fuels.

roo_ster

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Re: Ladies and Gentlemen, The Next Edsel !!!!
« Reply #74 on: August 29, 2011, 12:11:46 PM »
I've never been in the military, so I can't speak to the pay.

I can speak to the issue of subsidization of electric cars, though, and what I have to say is that I don't want to have to pay for someone else's eco-status car with my tax dollars. If it's such a great idea, then let the automakers charge the appropriate price and let the market decide if it's worth it.

I'm sure that we'll get a battery technology that will win over buyers of gas-powered cars, but it will be created by a private company looking to make money, not by politicians trying to score points with the environmental crowd by spending someone else's money.

This.

We can only hope, I want 1200hp out of my gtr. :)

Never say birdman isn't an optimist.

My pie in the sky is mid-sized pickup truck turbo diesels and small turbo diesels for truly compact pickup trucks.  And more sane diesel regs from the feds in line with euro-diesels, so we don;t have the asinine urea injection systems & such that have choked TD efficiency.

Midsized (approx specs):
I-6
3.0-4.0L

Small (approx specs):
I-4
2.0L

Oh, heck, I think this could use a little number-whipping...

Assume the Cummins B6.7 (the same one used in the 3/4 & 1 ton Dodge Ram PU) is the benchmark for a large TD and the others would be scaled down from it.


Code: [Select]

Engine Config dispL HP lb-ft HP/L lb-ft/L
Cummins_B6.7 I-6 6.7 350 650 52 97
Notional_4L I-6 4.0 209 388 52 97
Notional_3L I-6 3.0 157 291 52 97
Notional_2L I-4 2.0 104 194 52 97
Cummins_4BT I-4 3.9 130 355 33 91
DetDie_6.2L V-8 6.2 130 240 21 39




After looking for the Cummins B6.7 specs, I stumbled upon the B4.  It would be a fine option in a 1/2ton or 3/4 ton pickup.  IIRC, its specs mirror those of a friend of the family's first rig (1985 Chevy 2500HD 3/4ton with 6.2L GM diesel), who had the 6.2L diesel <more searching>.  That family friend would haul 7-horse trailers across the country and got 350K miles before buying a new pickup.  He did install a hi/lo shifter to give him 8 gears instead of 4, though.

Looking at the data, the Cummins_4BT already exists and is in use in commercial trucks.  I would be more than happy for it to be available in a 1/2 ton full-sized pickup or a 3/4 ton that doesn;t need the monster torque of the B6.7. 

I would also give fistful's left kidney for a true compact pickup (Ford Ranger, Nissan Hardbody-sized) with something like my Notional_2L.  With an appropriate tranny & rear-end, it could tow 5000lbs or whatever made sense until the trailer mass outmatched truck mass, making it dangerous.

Oh, yes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M_HqhiW38ik
http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/Jeep-Wrangler-Sahara-Cummins-4BT-Wrangler-/190568824757?pt=US_Cars_Trucks&hash=item2c5ec97fb5#v4-45
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJE-oDoya14&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BBqWFTxFQ0&feature=related (now that was just ridiculous...and sublime)
Regards,

roo_ster

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