The comments I am about to make are based upon having spent 12 years as a criminal prosecutor, not Alan Dershowitz or any of the other talking heads out to talk about a case where they admittedly don't have all of the facts.
First of all, in a probable cause affidavit, the goal is to meet probable cause. Period. You don't lay out your whole case in a probable cause statement. Why? Kind of like a coach laying his playbook on the table and saying "look, we can't lose." This may get you a plea, or you've just dumped all of your evidence in the spotlight way too early in the trial process and are taking a chance that the defense/press/public opinion don't f&^k it up before it's on record.
Second, I worked in a jurisdiction that did not conduct probable cause hearings. The elected prosecutor believed in the constitution as written, so all felony cases went to the grand jury for indictment or refusal. I thought that was brilliant, as you get the weak cases tossed by the grand jury, and you can get most witnesses on record as to their testimony. Keeps the chances of a witness changing testimony to a minimum.
As for overcharging....yep. Anywhere there is plea bargaining, cases get overcharged. That way the prosecutor has room to negotiate down to what should really have been charged in the first place. I was blessed to work for a prosecutor that believed plea bargaining was bull *expletive deleted*it, so I have no personal experience with plea bargaining. But I see it from this side of the bench all the time, and can say it truly is bull *expletive deleted*it. Ignore the facts and do whatever.
As for this case, I truly believe that there are too many politically motivated people on both sides of the case muddying the waters to make any prediction as to what the truth is. But, i'm afraid that the truth will be as much as victim as anyone in this case, because the "need the cities from burning. My only advice...if you live in the cities that may burn, watch the news and stock up on ammo and water.