Author Topic: BOHICA  (Read 15550 times)

birdman

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #50 on: September 16, 2012, 03:54:06 PM »
Interesting information but there is a rub. The current CPI "inflation" being low or even deflationary, as you state, is either a flaw in CPI calculation, or the result of low velocity (hesitancy to spend), money supply being as increased as it is.

So you solution is for the fed to buy loans ad forgive them?

Let's analyze the effect.
Fed purchases loans (or already has), which injects dollars into the economy.
Fed forgives the loans, meaning it never receives the dollars back with interest (which actually futher increases the NPV of the money it injected, because now the effective amount injected is the NPV of the note, not just the principal)
So the money supply stays the same or increases, but now those debts are gone, meaning a huge amount of capital is available, which increases the velocity, meaning what has been holding prices down (velocity making up for money supply increase) for many things (ie those that CPI actually measures) is instantly gone...so a huge inflationary spike occurs.

Normally, to compensate for that, the fed would do one of two things:
1. Increase interest rates...which they can't because of it would require increasing Rae's on treasuries to maintain even the small (compared to the fed) non-fed purchases of treasuries in the cycle.  An interest rate rise sufficient to cool the velocity you just reacted would be a rise to probably "classical" 5-7% rates, meaning national debt interest would spike to close to a trillion a year...which the govt can't affor, and would have to deficit finance through treasuries, which the fed would have to purchase to maintain demand, which INCREASES money supply.
2. Sell fed balance sheet assets (taking in dollars which are then deleted)...which you just eliminated, or even if you didn't eliminate all of them, you likely created a situation where potential purchases wouldn't purchase that debt, because who know what the fed will make worthless again.

So the basically, you set the knobs to "self destruct" and then by "forgiving" the loans, you effectively break the knobs off to ensure it happens.  As both of the above scenarios, would, when tried, also spike inflation, and you would basically turn your "forgive debt happy day" into the fastest hyperinflationary trigger ever.

What needs to happen is a pullback (sell the assets it does have)  AND let people/businesses/etc default...which will remove dollars, and reprice assets to keep things moving.

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #51 on: September 16, 2012, 04:26:42 PM »
I really ought not be surprised any more when the credentialed classes' solution to a problem caused by ham-handed gov't intervention (run by the credentialed class) is...more gov't intervention.

We are in a hole and they need to have the shovel taken away from them and applied to their cranium with abrupt force.
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zxcvbob

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #52 on: September 16, 2012, 04:49:32 PM »
I really ought not be surprised any more when the credentialed classes' solution to a problem caused by ham-handed gov't intervention (run by the credentialed class) is...more gov't intervention.

We are in a hole and they need to have the shovel taken away from them and applied to their cranium with abrupt force.

If the fed buys up debts and forgives them, you will see a taxpayer revolt among those who lived frugally. and paid off their debts or never had any debts to begin with.  Maybe there's not enough of us to matter  =(
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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #53 on: September 16, 2012, 06:22:11 PM »
I believe Drewtam's conclusion and analysis is incorrect, and the intervening posts fairly accurately reflect my sentiment and conclusions.
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drewtam

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #54 on: September 16, 2012, 07:46:16 PM »
Birdman, thanks for the analysis, this should be interesting discussion...

Quote
Let's analyze the effect.
Fed purchases loans (or already has), which injects dollars into the economy.
Fed forgives the loans, meaning it never receives the dollars back with interest (which actually futher increases the NPV of the money it injected, because now the effective amount injected is the NPV of the note, not just the principal)
So the money supply stays the same or increases, but now those debts are gone, meaning a huge amount of capital is available, which increases the velocity, meaning what has been holding prices down (velocity making up for money supply increase) for many things (ie those that CPI actually measures) is instantly gone...so a huge inflationary spike occurs.

I think I am with you up to the conclusion. I think the conclusion is wrong for several reasons...

1) I don't mean all debt.  ;/ I hope y'all weren't assuming that. I don't even mean most debt.

2) Keep in mind that the total private mortgage debt of this country is approx ~$13.3T and falling fast. Compare that to the $2-4T already injected that have basically done nothing. And the 0% fed rates, which has basically done nothing.

If the fed buys up debts and forgives them, you will see a taxpayer revolt among those who lived frugally. and paid off their debts or never had any debts to begin with.  Maybe there's not enough of us to matter  =(

3) Yes, good point. A more equitable arrangement could probably be made so that those who are debt free end up with straight cash so that moral hazard is not reduced. Perhaps a per capita cash injection, but only those who are debt free get to keep it, the rest are required to pay down debt. In one sense, it will feel a lot like a conditional tax deduction.

4) A small program could be used to slowly feed in this debt forgiveness. As soon as deflationary forces begin receding, the program could be withdrawn, and normal fed rate tools can begin to work again. Remember we are below 0 lower bound and creating trillions of new cash, and it has done NOTHING. Its hard to say at this point how much leverage this program would have. On one hand it would inject cash directly into the consumers and lenders and stop deflation in its tracks; on the other hand it would destroy money supply as debt is forgiven much like a bankruptcy process. As I said, the program would need to start small and cautiously as it slowly drains the debt out of the system.


My reasonings depends on some unspoken axioms though:
DEBT is the major problem this country and most of the world faces. Currently we are unwinding that debt, whether by paying it down or writing it down (bankruptcy). Fortunately, despite the low interest rates, people in aggregate are not taking on new debt - and that is a good thing. We have a lot of debt to unwind first.

The velocity of money through the system is too low, and needs to be increased so that we are all productive in the right fields to help rebuild real wealth, not ponzi asset bubbles.

The reduction of debt load slows down this velocity and causes deflation. I tried to reason through in the previous post why this seems to be empirically true. This seems to be empirically true whether I have the exact system flow right or not.



Quote
Increase interest rates...which they can't because of it would require increasing Rate's on treasuries to maintain even the small (compared to the fed) non-fed purchases of treasuries in the cycle.  An interest rate rise sufficient to cool the velocity you just reacted would be a rise to probably "classical" 5-7% rates, meaning national debt interest would spike to close to a trillion a year...which the govt can't affor, and would have to deficit finance through treasuries, which the fed would have to purchase to maintain demand, which INCREASES money supply.

I think I've already answered this above, but also add specifically that it is NOT the FedRes's job to keep the Federal gov't solvent. That is a whole 'nother ball of wax. It is the FEDRES job to keep inflation between 2-5% and unemployment at <4%. And when I consider that the national problem is debt, I fail to see why letting the federal gov't create another debt bubble is the right solution. Switching from a private debt bubble to public debt bubble doesn't solve the axiomatic issue: too much debt. [Modern Keynsians, like Bernanke and Paul Krugman, fail to see this because they don't think debt matters. I think debt does matter to the behavior of the economy.] If the federal gov't is in so much debt that it can't pay the interest in a regular inflationary environment, then the gov't needs to be cut back severely.

Quote
you likely created a situation where potential purchases wouldn't purchase that debt, because who know what the fed will make worthless again.

Can you clarify this sentence? I wanna make sure I got your meaning before responding specifically to it.

Quote
What needs to happen is a pullback (sell the assets it does have)  AND let people/businesses/etc default...which will remove dollars, and reprice assets to keep things moving.
Welcome to the nightmare of the 1930s. I'll just reiterate, we need to drain the economy of debt and prevent deflation to help us correct the fundamental problem. And masochism is not a virtue.
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sumpnz

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #55 on: September 17, 2012, 01:00:34 AM »
drewtam - What makes you think that Joe Average won't take that debt reduction from the .gov and go out and "re-leverage".  The de-leveraging is wholly a result of the crappy ecomony and people paying off debt to make their life easier should they get laid off, or going BK beacuse they can no longer maintain that debt due to being laid off.  Once the economy starts really going again most people will go right back to the behaviors that held sway until 2008-ish.

Those of us on this board that still have mortgages will react the way you would like the rest of the country to react.  But remember that we're a tiny minority when it comes to fiscal intelligence.

Blakenzy

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #56 on: September 17, 2012, 03:49:17 AM »
Debt reduction or not, those loans that joe average took out are never going to be repaid... and the properties that were listed as collateral will never be worth anything close to the amount owed because too few people have the money to go house shopping. The jobs aren't coming back from Asia.

In a system that is based on trading debt, what happens when everyone realizes that the debt will not be honored? It's a big Ponzi scheme and the latest suckers to join in were not worth as much as the people at the top figured they would be. Game over.

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drewtam

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #57 on: September 17, 2012, 03:06:34 PM »
drewtam - What makes you think that Joe Average won't take that debt reduction from the .gov and go out and "re-leverage".  The de-leveraging is wholly a result of the crappy ecomony and people paying off debt to make their life easier should they get laid off, or going BK beacuse they can no longer maintain that debt due to being laid off.  Once the economy starts really going again most people will go right back to the behaviors that held sway until 2008-ish.

Those of us on this board that still have mortgages will react the way you would like the rest of the country to react.  But remember that we're a tiny minority when it comes to fiscal intelligence.

I don't disagree. I would even add that falling asset prices "encourage" people not to take out new loans, and by not taking out new loans, asset demand continues to drop and asset prices drop more. Its a positive feedback all the way down to rock bottom. Take a look how long the great unwinding lasted in the 30s. From '28 to '42. And our financial & housing sector is starting from a higher debt point. The only good news is that non-finance business is starting from a much lower comparative debt burden than '28.


But I think preventing the Great Financial Crisis from happening again is a different question than how to drain the poison now.

So how do we stop people and banks from creating another debt & asset bubble? Good question. Similarly, we could ask how to prevent people from taking so much debt, or banks creating it. I suppose we would need a revamping of the banking system or the fractional reserve rules. A systemic approach that makes it difficult to get to this level of debt/gdp again.
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AJ Dual

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #58 on: September 17, 2012, 03:45:22 PM »
So how do we stop people and banks from creating another debt & asset bubble? Good question. Similarly, we could ask how to prevent people from taking so much debt, or banks creating it. I suppose we would need a revamping of the banking system or the fractional reserve rules. A systemic approach that makes it difficult to get to this level of debt/gdp again.

1. The Fed has one, and ONLY one job. The stable value of the U.S. Dollar, period. They are not to engage in trying to be an accelerator or a brake on the economy. This creates feedback loops, unintended consequences, and too many "tiger by the tail" scenarios that are generally worse than whatever it was they were trying to solve. They do the best they can, at maintaining stable USD value by controlling the supply and interest rates.

2. Constitutional Convention for a balanced budget amendment with some teeth, maybe kicking out earmarks and non-topic bill amendments too. Tricky I know, but perhaps if we time it right with enough "red state" legislatures in power... No matter how well crafted, I'm sure Congress and the Exec branch will find loopholes, but I'd hope that even with the "cheating" we'd still be way better off.

3. No bailouts, nothing is "too big to fail". Market pressures, and no safety net will make financial institutions behave responsibly. And if they don't, good money will no longer be thrown after bad. FDIC is set at some lower inflation/COLA derived limit that keeps a family from getting thrown out of their home or being unable to buy food/pay bills if a bank fails.

4. Multiple currencies. We set something up in parallel with the FRN that makes the Libertarians and gold-bugs happy. It doesn't have to be something you can use at the store. It could just be for banking/investments, and larger transactions. Say mandate it's "Legal Tender" for only [checks watch] for transactions of $10k in 2012 dollars as of Sept 17th... so it would be for car/home sized purchases and on up that are usually check/bank transfer anyway. Maybe even more than two currencies. They act as a check on one another because of the "competition". People's, financial institution's, and investment/savings vehicles diversify across the currencies like they do today across stocks/securities in a mutual fund today. Hopefully (Just a WAG on my part, I fully admit) it would address the problems of fiat currency like inflation/deflation or lack of faith in T-Bills, and "hard" commodity currency which has issues with not always having sufficient value or liquidity to represent an entire economy, or fluctuations in said commodity prices. (Like a one cubic mile wide gold nugget is found in the sea floor crust or whatever... LOL.)

Maybe that's got "WRONG" written all over it. Just my seat of the pants ideas. There's obviously finer economic minds than mine in this thread already.  [tinfoil]
« Last Edit: September 17, 2012, 03:51:30 PM by AJ Dual »
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Scout26

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #59 on: September 18, 2012, 12:20:07 AM »
In essence the Fed has studied what Weimar Germany did after WWEins and said "We can do it better !!!  We can make it work this time !!!!"


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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #60 on: September 18, 2012, 08:25:17 AM »
I have family members in the finacial business and I asked them if Bernake was off his rocker or is there some merit to QE3.

One replied this in email:

It may not have the same impact as prior versions of QE but due to language used, it may have a bigger psychological impact, in coordination with ECB for an open ended QE.  There seems to be coordination among the major central bankers to add stimulus in different forms, ECB, Fed, China and Brazil.

Take as you will since it only an opinion, but apparently it is a global QE.

I personally wished that Bernanke just said, no QE3 because most of us are going to take it in the shorts with inflation and lack of wage compensation to match.
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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #61 on: September 18, 2012, 09:06:50 AM »
That's the rub right there.

What is best for the United States is not best for the world, in the short term at least.

That is why the Dems and probably most Repubs will not do what is best for us.

I'm talking about lowering corporate taxes, exploiting our energy resources and a money policy designed to strengthen the dollar.

The above won't happen because of the worldwide consequences of an ascendent US economy/dollar. 
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AJ Dual

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #62 on: September 18, 2012, 05:59:23 PM »
We need to do what's best for us, period.

And it's looking like China's an even worse house of cards than we thought with the empty ghost cities.

Even that gold they've been buying up may not be real:rofl:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-chinas-rehypothecated-ghost-steel-just-vaporized-and-what-means-world-economy
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brimic

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #63 on: September 18, 2012, 07:03:45 PM »
That deserves a:

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Blakenzy

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #64 on: September 18, 2012, 08:09:57 PM »
We need to do what's best for us, period.

And it's looking like China's an even worse house of cards than we thought with the empty ghost cities.

Even that gold they've been buying up may not be real:rofl:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/how-chinas-rehypothecated-ghost-steel-just-vaporized-and-what-means-world-economy

How is what is described there anything but straight up fraud? When you think of it, the entire world economy is sitting on nothing but lies and the people that believe them. When the "hey, wait a minute.." moment reaches critical mass, I don't think I want to be around.
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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #65 on: September 19, 2012, 08:21:30 AM »
Considering china is the second largest economy and one of our larger trading partners (not to mention holder of a bunch of our debt).  Watching them go Kaa-Boom may just drag everyone else down as well.  I'd hold off on the Nelson Ha-Ha for a while.....
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Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #66 on: September 19, 2012, 09:07:31 AM »
I have family members in the finacial business and I asked them if Bernake was off his rocker or is there some merit to QE3.

One replied this in email:

It may not have the same impact as prior versions of QE but due to language used, it may have a bigger psychological impact, in coordination with ECB for an open ended QE.  There seems to be coordination among the major central bankers to add stimulus in different forms, ECB, Fed, China and Brazil.

Take as you will since it only an opinion, but apparently it is a global QE.

I personally wished that Bernanke just said, no QE3 because most of us are going to take it in the shorts with inflation and lack of wage compensation to match.

Whats scary is that we might see the inflation.  And with QE3 being open ended, we might get crushed with the inflation or it just might work.  Its all *expletive deleted*ing economic theory they are playing with. 
The reading I've done says a lot depends on what is done with the QE.  Once the banks have it, they could shore up their bottom lines which means little except more stability in the banking industry.  They could ease loans again, hello second lending bubble anyone?  Or they could flood the market with the cash....Argentina here we come!
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brimic

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #67 on: September 19, 2012, 09:25:22 AM »
Quote
Considering china is the second largest economy and one of our larger trading partners (not to mention holder of a bunch of our debt).  Watching them go Kaa-Boom may just drag everyone else down as well.  I'd hold off on the Nelson Ha-Ha for a while.....

I have no problem seeing them going down.

1.We do massive trade with them, but that trade has always been one way.
2.Their trade and business practices are largely unethical. Currently the EU and the USA have filed suit with the WTO over China's dumping of automotive components on the market.
3. Things absolutely must go through a painful correction to make the world's finances straight again. Yes its going to hurt us, but its necessary. Its much better that it hurts a COMMUNIST country a lot more so that they don't come out on top.
4. As to point #3 above, people have been predicting China would emerge as theworld leader in the next few years. As bad as things are going in America, I'd never bet against America.
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Scout26

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Re: BOHICA
« Reply #68 on: September 19, 2012, 09:25:56 AM »
That's what "The Bernak" is trying to do, re-inflate the housing bubble.  But all he'll end up doing is creating Wiemar/Argentina style inflation as he continues to devalue the currency.  What they are trying simply doesn't work.   It sounds good in theory, but in reality.....well that's another story.  
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.