I'm skeptical of polls in general (Didn't most polls have Mondale tied with Reagan until election night?) so I'm not going to get too excited when some pollster or analyst happens to put out something I happen like.
The bottom line is the only poll that counts is the one on election day, and in order to eke out a win, the Republican has to have enough of a margin to negate Democratic vote fraud. (Stuffed ballot boxes, hanging chads, etc., are the least of it.)