Is this an October Surprise?

[Jamisjockey]

I'm sure DS will along shortly with some aljazerra links proving the peaceful republic of Iran means no harm.

[De Selby]

I'm sure DS will along shortly with some aljazerra links proving the peaceful republic of Iran means no harm.

Nah, instead Ill refer to something micro put up here a while back which is the source of my skepticism - Iran has been weeks/months away from the bomb for several years now (at least since 2007) according to the people who are certain this is a weapons program.  There's a long list of these predictions going back to the last administration, and not one has ever failed to materialise.

If we've got indisputable proof of iran developing weapons here on APS, seems to me like someone should be phoning the president to let him in in the news.  Or maybe in the next presentation to the UN on why we need another war over WMDs, they'll just cite this thread directly and call it proof, which isn't too far off from how we got to the last war:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/transcripts/powelltext_020503.html

[birdman]

Nah, instead Ill refer to something micro put up here a while back which is the source of my skepticism - Iran has been weeks/months away from the bomb for several years now (at least since 2007) according to the people who are certain this is a weapons program.  There's a long list of these predictions going back to the last administration, and not one has ever failed to materialise.

If we've got indisputable proof of iran developing weapons here on APS, seems to me like someone should be phoning the president to let him in in the news.  Or maybe in the next presentation to the UN on why we need another war over WMDs, they'll just cite this thread directly and call it proof, which isn't too far off from how we got to the last war:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/nation/transcripts/powelltext_020503.html

Stuxnet, flame, and the issues they have had with their "research reactor" since 2007 have slowed things down.

And a more important point, if it's NOT a weapons program, why is the damn enrichment facility buried underground in a bunker?  I mean, ours is a big industrial building in TN.

Also, the similar facilities in Japan, France, england, china, Russia, Canada, south africa, etc are all big unhardened industrial buildings, so why do they feel the need to protect their peaceful program against precision munitions?  The only countries who have expressed any inkling of bombing them at all are the Israelis and us, and in both cases it's to "prevent Iran from getting a bomb".

Also, how can you say it's NOT a weapons program given the above, and when the country's leader says israeli needs to be destroyed, AND their nuclear facilities are designed to defend against israel.

So far you've changed your argument from "definitely not, without proof" to "definitely not, and the proof is they haven't YET, and previous timelines were wrong"?

Keep digging DS, just make sure the dirt makes it out of the hole, cause its getting pretty deep.

[Regolith]

[charby]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlwilbVYvUg

[slingshot]

The Iran announcement may well be the "October Surprise".  How the information is played will be important to both Obama and Romney.

I believe Iran is rapidly moving toward weaponization of their nuclear capabilites.  I don't particularly want to fight or get involved in another war.  Once they get to the "bomb" level, I suspect Iran will do a test which will confirm to the world that they are a nuclear nation. The other approach is to keep the information secret or test it in Isreal via a truck bomb.

[Fitz]

Basically, DS, I know more about this topic than 99% of people IN THE FIELD, and more than 99.999% of the population in general, am a recognized expert on advanced nuclear systems, work with both defense and civilian groups in the field, have multiple degrees in the subject from the #1 university in the world in the subject, and am hired by people to answer the hard questions on the topic when other 'experts' have failed.  I've worked on everything from low enriched PWR/BWR designs, have actually USED with my own hands research reactors using HEU all the way up to 90% fuel, designed personally reactors using both low-LEU, 20%, and HEU fuels for naval, spacecraft, and terrestrial research, isotope production, and power uses, and have worked on counter proliferation designs.

I can tell you flat out, in my,  guess "somewhat" educated opinion, the real goal of the infrastructure they have created is a WEAPONS program, everything else is window dressing.

So we can continue to argue, if you'd like, but it will be embarrassing for you.  I'll cite original sources, high level textbooks, and actual experience, you will cite news sources.  Everyone in the conversation will realize you are simply arguing yourself deeper into a hole,many making an ass out of yourself in the process, not to mention showing ignorance, while I try to educate.  I don't kow if you find that fun in some way, but I don't like seeing incorrect thoughts promulgated under the guise of facts, and thus must respond, which is wastes a substantial amount of my valuable time, just to prevent other more open minded folks from accepting your uneducated opinions as facts.

I LOL'd

[Fjolnirsson]

Birdman is my new hero. I nearly wet my pants, reading his posts. That stung a bit, I imagine...

[Jamisjockey]

Birdman is my new hero. I nearly wet my pants, reading his posts. That stung a bit, I imagine...

Standby for strawman argument in 5, 4, 3, 2....

[AmbulanceDriver]

I do believe that this may be the first ICBS (InterContinental B**** Slap).

[CNYCacher]

Nah, instead Ill refer to something micro put up here a while back which is the source of my skepticism - Iran has been weeks/months away from the bomb for several years now (at least since 2007) according to the people who are certain this is a weapons program.  There's a long list of these predictions going back to the last administration, and not one has ever failed to materialise.

If birdman has been making these predictions for all these years, then you would have a point.  But he hasn't.  He's making them now, and a history of whackadoos having made the same prediction albeit too early, does not discredit him.

[birdman]

If birdman has been making these predictions for all these years, then you would have a point.  But he hasn't.  He's making them now, and a history of whackadoos having made the same prediction albeit too early, does not discredit him.

I did make them a few years ago, and ifit wasn't for my aforementioned factors (Stuxnet, etc) those, and other predictions would have been accurate.  Remember, we still don't know HOW bad Stuxnet damaged things...but it was severe.

[kgbsquirrel]

I did make them a few years ago, and ifit wasn't for my aforementioned factors (Stuxnet, etc) those, and other predictions would have been accurate.  Remember, we still don't know HOW bad Stuxnet damaged things...but it was severe.

Also don't forget the targeted assassinations of key Iranian nuclear and computer experts. I believe they still haven't proven who was behind that, but smart money is on the Mossad.

[birdman]

Also don't forget the targeted assassinations of key Iranian nuclear and computer experts. I believe they still haven't proven who was behind that, but smart all but the galacticaly stupid, deaf, dumb, and blind money is on the Mossad.

FIFY.

[Jamisjockey]

If birdman has been making these predictions for all these years, then you would have a point.  But he hasn't.  He's making them now, and a history of whackadoos having made the same prediction albeit too early, does not discredit him.

While personally I'm not an interventionist.....

Much of those predictions would have come true had we not handed Iran thier electronic asses with those viri.

(and kgb's post too.  Can't build *expletive deleted*it when your best scientists keeping getting all splodey.)

[kgbsquirrel]

While personally I'm not an interventionist.....

Much of those predictions would have come true had we not handed Iran thier electronic asses with those viri.

(and kgb's post too.  Can't build *expletive deleted* when your best scientists keeping getting all splodey.)

*nod* Imagine if the Nazi's or Japanese had whacked Oppenheimer and Fermi in late 1943 or early 1944. That would have put a kink in the Manhattan project alright.

[RevDisk]

I did make them a few years ago, and ifit wasn't for my aforementioned factors (Stuxnet, etc) those, and other predictions would have been accurate.  Remember, we still don't know HOW bad Stuxnet damaged things...but it was severe.

While I am not quite the equiv of birdman when it comes to IEW...  I'm not that far off.

Basically, yes and no. It burned out things that spun really fast.  At a drastically higher than normal wear and tear fashion.  Delayed production of ah, stuff, did not halt. It was designed to tamper with control units made by German company known for their control systems. Oddly coincidentally, my local brewery uses the same control hardware.  How big of a delay depends on who you ask and what you actually mean. First nuke? Not a lot. Building many nukes.  Quite a bit.

I am not quite as laid back as DS on the matter. If Iran had a couple nukes, does not matter. Pakistan has a handful, and is not a problem even with a large percentage of their spooks being allied with ... Folks.  Iran with lots of nukes...  That would not be good. Iranians are Shiites. Shiites don't tend to start stuff outside of their turf. Or what they consider to be their turf, which does not correspond to the maps. That is the Sunni, our allies, who tend to blow up our stuff. Iran with a significant nuclear arsenal would limit our ability to annoy Shiites at will and give Sunni a pass on blowing up our stuff. That would be... Interesting with our current list of favorites.


 

[RevDisk]

Also don't forget the targeted assassinations of key Iranian nuclear and computer experts. I believe they still haven't proven who was behind that, but smart money is on the Mossad.

Sigh. Not just Iranian.

You'd be surprised how many Israelis work at kiosks in malls. Most of them are just young kids. Not all of them are. The PRC is our primary espionage enemy. Israel is second. Never confuse a country, its government and its natural security complex. They are discrete and separate entities with different goals and ideology. Syria was on the state sponsors lists, yet we exported our ghost detainees there to be tortured for information.

Couple years ago, someone was clipping off a lot of our key bio researchers. I honestly don't know the story on that one and hope I never find out.

Short story long, the enemy of your enemy is your enemy's enemy. No more, no less. That does not make them a friend, ally or enemy. A lot of people have died because they made that mistake, thousands of them were Americans.

[birdman]

First nuke? Not a lot. Building many nukes.  Quite a bit.

This brings up an interesting point, perhaps the Iranians havent build serial number 1 yet is because in their situation, having one is -very bad-.

You want to at least test one.  Now, you have proven you have at least that one...faced with a country very willing to preemptively strike your ass to prevent you from going through on your "wipe them off the map" verbal posturing, you better have more than the one you just tested...a bit more.

So look at my previous numbers...if it takes you all of a month or two to turn your non-bomb stuff into bomb stuff, but that -might-be detectable, then you would probably want to make enough "non-bomb stuff" for (count number of major bases and cities in the aforementioned country you have threatened), and leave it "almost" completed until you can complete a bunchin short order.  That way, once you test you can deter their pre-emptive actions.

In other words, perhaps slowing down stuff for weapons 2-20 possibly slowed down the completion of #1, just not in the most obvious way?

After all, that's what we did.  

We didn't test or drop until we had more already done...or do people really wonder why little-boy wasn't tested, and there was only 3 weeks between trinity and Nagasaki (same design)?  We didn't build the bomb in three weeks, it was already built.

[Hawkmoon]

Thing is, I can see red and green just fine. It's only under a very specific low-light circumstance that an un-illuminated red or green surface will appear brown. And that's how I ended up in crypto school instead. (funny thing, after going to the fleet, one of my jobs on look-out was spotting red or green lights, never had trouble with that)

If under any conditions red or green appears brown, you do NOT see red and green "just fine." I understand -- I am also red-green weak, and that deficiency once discovered by the United States Army kept me out of the explosive ordnance end of combat engineering. Which was actually pretty stupid, IMHO. When I was in and at the level I would ever possibly reach in one term of enlistment, I was never going to be making complicated nuclear-grade automatic, count-down detonators. We were doing shape charges to blow up bridges, using good old-fashioned, hand-held detonators. We connected two wires to the caps, then hooked the other ends of the wires to the control box. Twist handle ==> send spark ==> make BOOM.

IIRC, the two wires were black and white, neither of which is affected by red-green weakness. Even if it were, the wires came as a twisted pair. There were only two wires, and polarity didn't matter, so it could not possibly have mattered if I got them "reversed." But ... the Army didn't want me connecting those wires. Their loss.

[kgbsquirrel]

If under any conditions red or green appears brown, you do NOT see red and green "just fine." I understand -- I am also red-green weak, and that deficiency once discovered by the United States Army kept me out of the explosive ordnance end of combat engineering. Which was actually pretty stupid, IMHO. When I was in and at the level I would ever possibly reach in one term of enlistment, I was never going to be making complicated nuclear-grade automatic, count-down detonators. We were doing shape charges to blow up bridges, using good old-fashioned, hand-held detonators. We connected two wires to the caps, then hooked the other ends of the wires to the control box. Twist handle ==> send spark ==> make BOOM.

IIRC, the two wires were black and white, neither of which is affected by red-green weakness. Even if it were, the wires came as a twisted pair. There were only two wires, and polarity didn't matter, so it could not possibly have mattered if I got them "reversed." But ... the Army didn't want me connecting those wires. Their loss.

Like I said, instead of pushing red and green back-lit buttons in a well illuminated control room, the Navy instead put me out in the pitch black night peering through some binoculars at ships 10 nautical miles away identifying which direction they were going according to an arrangement of a dim red, green and white lights. Never had much trouble with that. 

[birdman]

Just in an "I told you so"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323551004578123042469361174.html

Check that article out...talks about everything I've said in this thread :)

[De Selby]

Just in an "I told you so"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323551004578123042469361174.html

Check that article out...talks about everything I've said in this thread :)

This is basically the same report, recycled with yet another " few months to the bomb!!!" prediction.   Just like we've been hearing for the past five years.

[birdman]

This is basically the same report, recycled with yet another " few months to the bomb!!!" prediction.   Just like we've been hearing for the past five years.

De Selby, if that is your retort, I suggest you look at every one of your posts...ever, as recycling the same points again and again is probably the best description to date of the garbage you post in these types of arguments.

[Jamisjockey]

De Selby: I'm not sure why you felt the need to report this post to the moderators.  All I see is you politely getting bitchslapped by someone more knoweldgeable on a topic then you.  Quit whining.