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I think his defense is gonna hinge on did he believe he was in danger. Key words " did he". Not so much whether anyone else believed he was. I think it will fly. Especially in light of the body cams that show his reaction and statement immediately post shooting along with what Kidd said. Still likely a bad shoot just not one they can get a conviction on.
We had an FBI agent just beat the rap on his third trial here based on reasonable doubt.
The defense is going to key on whether they can convince a jury that a "reasonable man" in the same situation would have thought he was in danger. If the Officer is deemed by the jury to be unreasonable, then what he actually thought is irrelevant.
In years past, LEO's would have been automatically presumed reasonable by most folks, and as such if the LEO says he thought he was in danger, then it was often accepted at face value. For a variety of reasons, that perception of LEO's is changing in America, and it's very possibly this particular LEO won't get that benefit of the doubt. In which case he's in trouble. I also predict that do to the media frenzy, the circumstances, and the other high profile LEO shootings around the country that this guy isn't going to plead this down. I see a jury trial here.
Testimony of the other two cops, how bad, and exactly where his uniform got messed up, what knocked that flashlight out of his belt, and the make up and preconceptions of the jury will all become very important over the next few months.