Syrian Civil War 101

[roo_ster]

Syrian Civil War 101
http://www.unz.com/akarlin/syrian-civil-war-101/

A nice little primer on the Syrian Civil War.  Several very useful maps. 

I admit to not having been following the Syrian Civil War anywhere near as closely the war in the Donbass.

But with recent rumors of stepped up Russian involvement now being confirmed by videos – and even talk of China possibly sending troops (crazy, but a year ago you’d have said the same of Russians) – it is well past time to remedy this.

The first thing I like to do when it comes to getting up to speed on some conflict or other is studying maps...

Some patterns immediately jump out...

(1) The pattern of regime, FSA/Al-Nusra and ISIS control correlate exceedingly well with the ethnic and religious composition of the geographic areas in question...

(2) The pattern of control also tallies very well with support for Assad in opinion polls (to a large extent this will of course be an ethnic/religious confound)...

(3) More generally, many Western media propaganda/neocon talking points immediately become hollow through this simply map-viewing exercise...

There is a whole lot more quality content and I urge any and all to read it in full.  And study the maps.

[AJ Dual]

My only take on that is I hope Russia/China get stuck in a quagmire, and they don't hurt the Kurds, Levantines, or Druze.

Beyond that, I've got nothing.

[Scout26]

This is where I pray for an asteroid impact.

[wmenorr67]

Interesting timing considering that the "rumor" is that my BDE has been sourced for missions beginning sometime in 2017.  As we close in on 2016, if any of those are to happen we will soon see an increase in money to start sending more of us to schools/training.

[roo_ster]

Interesting timing considering that the "rumor" is that my BDE has been sourced for missions beginning sometime in 2017.  As we close in on 2016, if any of those are to happen we will soon see an increase in money to start sending more of us to schools/training.

Because American ground troops would make everything better in multi-sided, multi-ethnic basket-case countries in the middle of a civil war.  Well, only if by "better" you meant "scour the land of clean of human life."

[wmenorr67]

My biggest fear is escalation of issues in the Sinai that will require more than the current BN plus of our troops there.  That could get ugly quick if ROE isn't adjusted accordingly.  Right now the unit(s) that are there, are limited in what they have in the way of weaponry.  Basically they are stuck with individual weapons and maybe a few 240B's and/or 50 cals.  Nothing that will hold of a group of ISIS or others intent on making a name for themselves.

[Jocassee]

My biggest fear is escalation of issues in the Sinai that will require more than the current BN plus of our troops there.  That could get ugly quick if ROE isn't adjusted accordingly.  Right now the unit(s) that are there, are limited in what they have in the way of weaponry.  Basically they are stuck with individual weapons and maybe a few 240B's and/or 50 cals.  Nothing that will hold of a group of ISIS or others intent on making a name for themselves.

Most Americans have no idea we have a footprint in the Sinai. I didn't know myself until fairly recently.

[brimic]

My only take on that is I hope Russia/China get stuck in a quagmire, and they don't hurt the Kurds, Levantines, or Druze.

.

Me too, except I  think the russians or the chinese are going to be more into 'nation breaking' vs 'nation building.'
Doubtful that they will tie both hands behind their backs with ROEs that will set them up to fail.

[Scout26]

Most Americans have no idea we have a footprint in the Sinai. I didn't know myself until fairly recently.

You may not have been born then:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_Air_Flight_1285

[AJ Dual]

Me too, except I  think the russians or the chinese are going to be more into 'nation breaking' vs 'nation building.'
Doubtful that they will tie both hands behind their backs with ROEs that will set them up to fail.

That's a hard call to make. My gut feeling is that roughly speaking, Soviet Russia in Afghanistan is likely to be as "un PC" as Putin's Russia is now in Syria. At least as compared to America's ROE's in Vietnam, or the Iraqi occupation.

And it didn't do them any good in Afghanistan.  Plus both Russia and China are hurting economically, much more than America is, in terms of being able to sustain long-term military adventurism.  Russia is sapped by the low oil prices from the Saudi/Fracking oil price-war, and China from it's stock market collapse/bubble-bursting.

[Andiron]

So glad I didn't re up.

The world has gone mad(er)

[bedlamite]

My only take on that is I hope Russia/China get stuck in a quagmire, and they don't hurt the Kurds, Levantines, or Druze.

Beyond that, I've got nothing.

Yep, we should step back a little from this one and let Russia get pulled into the quagmire in Syria. That may give ISIS a new target other than us. I could see limited air support for the Kurds to and keep ISIS from expanding to the Iraq. It's likely Russia will leave Turkey alone, and they have already coordinated with Israel.

[vaskidmark]

Yep, we should step back a little from this one and let Russia get pulled into the quagmire in Syria. That may give ISIS a new target other than us. I could see limited air support for the Kurds to and keep ISIS from expanding to the Iraq. It's likely Russia will leave Turkey alone, and they have already coordinated with Israel.

Limited air support never does anything but make big(ger) holes in stuff.  If you are not going to put your own boots on the ground to hold what you have taken then you need to get someone else with boots there and give them the supplies to do so.

I hate to reopen old wounds (my own included) but we took every freaking hilltop and most every rice paddy in Vietnam - sometimes twice in the same day.  Then we got some chow and some sleep, and went out and did it again the next day.  Admittedly our intent was not like the Romans to to build forts to turn into villages that would become cities to expand the Empire, but we could have copied the Mongols and made sure there was nobody able to threaten our rear as we pressed onward.

And here we are again, fighting the last war over again (with some modern technological improvements thrown into the mix).

stay safe.

[Scout26]

And here we are again, fighting the last war over again (with some modern technological improvements thrown into the mix).

stay safe.

We're not fighting anything (well kinda, sorta, half-assed in A-stan), so as VA points out, the USAF has once again, succeeded in convincing a CINC with zero military experience and loathing for all things military, that he can "Do Something^tm" and "Win" without putting boots on the ground.   

But as the TR Fahrenbach and the statue of "Iron Mike" at Ft. Dix clearly point out "If he ain't on it, you don't own it."   And sadly because we still think that little yellow brown Asian boys are just American boys on the inside, we clearly compounded Sir Winston's mistake (At least he had a long lunch to blame) for trying to force tribes and clans that have eons of hatred and animosity toward each other to work together.   So our bombing efforts go for naught.

As the map in OP shows, the only way things are going to change on the ground is if one of the several sides manages to take a city, then ethnically cleanse it and repopulate it with their own people.  Otherwise we are going to see years and years and years of war.   Think Stalingrad writ large, as they battle of the rubble and ruins of Syria and Northern Iraq.

I do hope the Chinese and Russians get sucked in.  It will be a bigger quagmire then Afghanistan (British, Soviet, and American experiences).

[wmenorr67]

The Muslims can't get along with themselves, who in their right mind things that they can assimilate and get along with anyone else?

[De Selby]

The Muslims can't get along with themselves, who in their right mind things that they can assimilate and get along with anyone else?

This is a war between secular forces who have mostly banned extreme practice of Islam and Muslim fundamentalists, not a war between Muslims.  The Assads have Christians and Druze in their camp, and had been going around banning headscarves and requiring that families send their daughters to school long before the French got there.

Not that it makes the allies of Russia and China great people, but they are actually fighting the same extremists everyone here talks about destroying.

[Scout26]

Last I checked the Alawites were a branch of Shia Muslims and ISIS was a branch of Sunni Muslims. 

The Alawites are more "modern" in the views an tolerate of religions (Druze, Christians,etc.) while ISIS is a throwback to the "Convert or Die" historical model of conquest Islam.

So it pretty much IS a Religious/Civil War, very much in the model of the Thirty Years War.  And predict it will last longer then that...

[De Selby]

Last I checked the Alawites were a branch of Shia Muslims and ISIS was a branch of Sunni Muslims. 

The Alawites are more "modern" in the views an tolerate of religions (Druze, Christians,etc.) while ISIS is a throwback to the "Convert or Die" historical model of conquest Islam.

So it pretty much IS a Religious/Civil War, very much in the model of the Thirty Years War.  And predict it will last longer then that...

The alawhites are only considered Muslim by Iran for official purposes - it facilitated alliances with Iran and powerful Lebanese.

In any case, the government isn't alawhite and doesn't even officially recognise alawhite as a religion in Syria.  Baathism and Assad personally are explicitly secular - it is not a religious war for the Syrian government and never has been.

[lupinus]

That pretty much seals it. You're either delusional or putting us on.


Sent from my iPhone. Freaking autocorrect.

[De Selby]

That pretty much seals it. You're either delusional or putting us on.


Sent from my iPhone. Freaking autocorrect.

  What's that in relation to?  You don't think Assad and the Syrian Baathist state are secularists???  That's pretty easy for you to verify.  It's also why the Christian and other non-Muslim minorities in Syria sided with the government.

[grampster]

Denial of the obvious is a common trait for some.  Someone once said that not all Muslims are killing people, but nearly all of those who are killing people are Muslims.

When S. Hussein was caught and hung, we should have pulled all of our people out of the ME and sent Iraq a bill. 

If Muslims are not killing each other (sectarian butchery) and others, well, nearly everywhere, then why are hundreds of thousands of Muslims fleeing Muslim dominated countries and going to the places that are not run by Muslims?  I can see why some of them are.  They are radicalized young men being sent to further the Caliphate.  However there will be a reckoning for that at some point in the not too distant future.  Maybe this time the West can finish the job.  As for China and Russia, they have their own problems with Muslims in their countries and spheres of influence.  It appears to only be bluster at this point because they know what a quagmire the ME is and perhaps understand that that dog bites the hand that feeds it.

[Fitz]

Lolololol