Author Topic: Stealing the Convention  (Read 3041 times)

MechAg94

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Stealing the Convention
« on: March 30, 2016, 09:47:12 AM »
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/republican-convention-rules-trump-cruz-221355

Quote
The four took issue with a rule, originally imposed by Mitt Romney forces in 2012 to keep rival Ron Paul off the convention stage, requiring a candidate to win a majority of delegates in eight states to be eligible for the party’s nomination -- a threshold only Trump has exceeded so far. If preserved, the rule could block John Kasich or Ted Cruz from competing with Trump at the convention, set for July in Cleveland.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/republican-convention-rules-trump-cruz-221355#ixzz44OSp0Did
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I listened to the Cruz portion of the town hall thing last night.  He was asked about the convention and the selection process.  He mentioned this rule and said that at present only Trump and Cruz should be on the ballot at the convention as they were the only ones to qualify under this rule. 

It got me to thinking.  If neither Trump or Cruz have a delegate majority in the end, will the 200 or so delegates from Kasich, Rubio, Carson, and others swing the vote one way or the other?  I heard the delegates for candidates that have dropped out are no longer obligated to vote a particular way. 
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Fly320s

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #1 on: March 30, 2016, 09:52:08 AM »
I figure the convention rules will be changed to benefit the GOPe.
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brimic

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #2 on: March 30, 2016, 11:57:35 AM »
The GOP just needs some sort of intelligence test to weed out candidates- "here's a coloring by numbers book, pick a page and fill it out.   T of F :Bus windows are good to lick."
At least one of the 3 GOP front runners would fail.*


*One of the front runners came to WI, and said something to the effect that Scott Walker and his ACT 10 (undoing public sector unions) are failures, and he should have raised taxes.

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RevDisk

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #3 on: March 30, 2016, 01:15:18 PM »

I somehow knew those anti Ron Paul measures to stop 'insurgent candidates' would bite them on the rear end.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2016, 01:23:59 PM »
If they do "steal" the nomination, it will at least be entertaining.
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AJ Dual

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2016, 01:28:25 PM »
Reince Priebus has promised not to mess with the GOP Convention rules or process, FWIW.

Although even if all, or just most of the Rubio, Kasich, and Carson delegates go to Cruz, putting him over the top "legitimately", the Trump side butthurt and "They stole it!" screaming is going to be epic.
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MechAg94

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2016, 03:03:35 PM »
Reince Priebus has promised not to mess with the GOP Convention rules or process, FWIW.

Although even if all, or just most of the Rubio, Kasich, and Carson delegates go to Cruz, putting him over the top "legitimately", the Trump side butthurt and "They stole it!" screaming is going to be epic.
I understand there was already some complaint about Louisiana.  I don't know how Louisiana rules are set up, Trump won the vote, but Cruz came out of it with more delegates. 
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Northwoods

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2016, 11:00:02 PM »
I guess some pundit made a projection that Trump could get to 1239 if he won both WI and IN (I think), and otherwise performed as he has in the other states.  Cruz is apparently 10 points up in WI according to the last poll I saw.  So if Cruz takes WI that makes it rather unlikely that Trump will outperform enough in the remaining states to sew up the nomination. 

What I think will be telling will be how close Trump comes to 1237.  If he winds up with 1100+ delegates he'd probably try to work a deal with Kasich to drop out and become his VP and get Kasich's delegates to put him over the top.  Assuming the Kasich delegates would be free to vote that way.  Less than that and it goes to a floor fight over delegates and probably many rounds of voting.  At which point Trump stands no chance of being nominated. 

That then begs the question of who does get the nomination.  Does it default to Cruz as the only other candidate to win 8+ states, or do heretofore non-candidates (e.g. Mattis) become potential nominees?
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Andiron

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2016, 11:20:02 PM »
The one *expletive deleted*ing year it actually mattered to put a stake in Clinton's heart,  and the GOP decided to go full Ringling Brothers.

This annoys me to no end.
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Northwoods

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2016, 11:37:30 PM »
The one *expletive deleted*ing year it actually mattered to put a stake in Clinton's heart,  and the GOP decided to go full Ringling Brothers.

This annoys me to no end.

Yeah.  Mitt was such a squish.  McCain was a "maverick" and almost as bad (if far less clownish) than Trump.  Dole wound up pimping Viagra.  I guess Trump shouldn't be that much of a shock, even though he is.
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brimic

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2016, 06:58:17 AM »
I guess some pundit made a projection that Trump could get to 1239 if he won both WI and IN (I think), and otherwise performed as he has in the other states.  Cruz is apparently 10 points up in WI according to the last poll I saw.  So if Cruz takes WI that makes it rather unlikely that Trump will outperform enough in the remaining states to sew up the nomination. 

What I think will be telling will be how close Trump comes to 1237.  If he winds up with 1100+ delegates he'd probably try to work a deal with Kasich to drop out and become his VP and get Kasich's delegates to put him over the top.  Assuming the Kasich delegates would be free to vote that way.  Less than that and it goes to a floor fight over delegates and probably many rounds of voting.  At which point Trump stands no chance of being nominated. 

That then begs the question of who does get the nomination.  Does it default to Cruz as the only other candidate to win 8+ states, or do heretofore non-candidates (e.g. Mattis) become potential nominees?
Trump is not going to win WI. A week ago he may have had a chance, but now, not so much.
He came in and urinated all over the conservative base with his left wing talking points. From the things he said, I couldn't distinguish him from bernie.
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AJ Dual

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2016, 09:46:45 AM »
Trump is not going to win WI. A week ago he may have had a chance, but now, not so much.
He came in and urinated all over the conservative base with his left wing talking points. From the things he said, I couldn't distinguish him from bernie.

Yes. Trump's campaign is largely one of delivering a parody of what someone who was raised and lived most his life in the NYC bubble thinks a conservative in flyover country wants to hear. Spiced up with some populist/lefty points he or his campaign thinks will create crossover and a plurality.

Of course, what's disappointing is how well it's working.  =|

However, it causes him to deliver missteps. He's been busy bashing Wisconsin, the WI GOP, and Governor Walker who's done several excellent things, balancing the budget, breaking the .gov unions in the state, and having the only fully funded state pension system in the country. Saying the state is in economic doldrums bad unemployment etc. which is untrue.

I kind of understood it when he was just in mudslinging mode when Walker was in the GOP field, and he needed whatever talking points he could throw at him, like bashing him on non-existent budget deficits. They were projected deficits, and and (gasp!) the GOP majority in the Legislature and Walker simply... spent less, and no deficit. (funny how that works...) The lefty press always desperate for anything they can sling at Walker, because the way he's dismantled the "taxes -> .gov unions -> Democrat campaign donations -> taxes" money laundering machine terrifies them, and they made a lot of hay out of the story, which by and large was untrue, and did not come to pass. And Trump and his handlers siezed on that, without bothering to look if it was really true.

Now that Trump is campaigning for WI's delegates in the primary, to continue harping on these points, it's a completely tone-deaf misstep. WI does not have state-level GOP disaffection like there is nationally that he can exploit. State level GOP unity is running at about 99% here because of the highly polarizing batshit insane fight we've had over the past 5-6 years passing these things, and the hard-Left protests against them that's made it clear to everyone on the Right, and even the moderate middle what the Left is really like when the mask is off.

And of course the GOP has by and large delivered on everything the base in WI has wanted. .gov union's busted, CCW, tax cuts, balanced budget, right-to-work etc.
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MechAg94

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2016, 09:57:16 AM »
The one *expletive deleted*ing year it actually mattered to put a stake in Clinton's heart,  and the GOP decided to go full Ringling Brothers.

This annoys me to no end.
It could be worse.  We could be sitting here at this time with Jeb Bush as the presumptive nominee. 
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MechAg94

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2016, 10:04:42 AM »
I guess some pundit made a projection that Trump could get to 1239 if he won both WI and IN (I think), and otherwise performed as he has in the other states.  Cruz is apparently 10 points up in WI according to the last poll I saw.  So if Cruz takes WI that makes it rather unlikely that Trump will outperform enough in the remaining states to sew up the nomination. 

What I think will be telling will be how close Trump comes to 1237.  If he winds up with 1100+ delegates he'd probably try to work a deal with Kasich to drop out and become his VP and get Kasich's delegates to put him over the top.  Assuming the Kasich delegates would be free to vote that way.  Less than that and it goes to a floor fight over delegates and probably many rounds of voting.  At which point Trump stands no chance of being nominated. 

That then begs the question of who does get the nomination.  Does it default to Cruz as the only other candidate to win 8+ states, or do heretofore non-candidates (e.g. Mattis) become potential nominees?
My understanding was that delegates are mostly bound to vote for one candidate, but if the candidate drops out, the delegates are no longer bound.  I guess it depends on the state's rules.  I don't know if Kasich can direct his delegates to vote differently on the first ballot.  Anyone know the Ohio rules?

Also, once they are past the bound votes, the delegates themselves can vote however they wish.  It doesn't matter at that point what the candidate wants. 

The interesting part is that different states bind the delegates to vote for their candidate for different numbers of ballots.  After the first ballot, more and more delegates are free to vote their own way on each successive ballot. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

wmenorr67

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2016, 10:08:40 AM »
Heard Romney may try to get on a couple of ballots that he would win to "steal" delegates to keep Trump from getting the magic number.
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Scout26

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2016, 11:15:55 AM »
That then begs the question of who does get the nomination.  Does it default to Cruz as the only other candidate to win 8+ states, or do heretofore non-candidates (e.g. Mattis) become potential nominees?

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Ben

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2016, 11:20:08 AM »
I saw that at the CNN Town Hall, when Trump was asked what the three most important things the government should do were, he said:

1) National defense
2) Health care
3) Education
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Scout26

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2016, 11:30:57 AM »
Yeah, between that and "Lock up for 10 years any woman who gets an abortion."; the folks in flyover are getting a better view of the man behind the curtain...
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


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TommyGunn

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2016, 11:43:51 AM »
 :facepalm:  All hail our next POTUS!   
I am so ^&%$#$% sick of these repukeagain clown conventions I may just stop caring and dig a hole, jump into it and pull it down on top of me.  [barf]
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MechAg94

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2016, 12:39:56 PM »
I saw that at the CNN Town Hall, when Trump was asked what the three most important things the government should do were, he said:

1) National defense
2) Health care
3) Education

He said "Security, Security, and Security" after that I heard.

I did think this format was nice as a change up from the debates.  Just one candidate talking without other candidates commenting or interrupting.  I would like to see it used more down the road.  At least mix it up with actual debates.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2016, 01:31:51 PM »
Yeah, between that and "Lock up for 10 years any woman who gets an abortion."; the folks in flyover are getting a better view of the man behind the curtain...

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wmenorr67

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2016, 01:57:50 PM »
What do folks usually get for contracting a murder?

Depends on how well it looks like a suicide, or at least convince enough people it was.
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zxcvbob

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2016, 03:11:54 PM »
I somehow knew those anti Ron Paul measures to stop 'insurgent candidates' would bite them on the rear end.

They can try to change the rules again, but it will mostly be Trump and Cruz delegates on the Rules Committee, and they might like the rules just fine like they are.
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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #23 on: April 01, 2016, 06:34:44 PM »
This is the best primary yet. Trump really boosted the ratings and made what would've been a sad affair to be a properly dysfunctional reality show.

It's also nice to see an actual conservative doing really well in the primary. I was sure Yeb! was going to be the golden boy, setting the stage for a Bush-Clinton rematch that would be just as successful as the last one.

brimic

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Re: Stealing the Convention
« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2016, 07:26:14 PM »
This is the best primary yet. Trump really boosted the ratings and made what would've been a sad affair to be a properly dysfunctional reality show.

It's also nice to see an actual conservative doing really well in the primary. I was sure Yeb! was going to be the golden boy, setting the stage for a Bush-Clinton rematch that would be just as successful as the last one.

Yep, the one upside is that all of the squishy *let's not go there* have been eliminated.
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