Trump will most likely be the nominee

[Ron]

He is all about the deals as we all know.

Can the constitutionalists and libertarian branch apply enough pressure to him to get a good enough deal to promote high turnout among that part of the base?

He will need every constituency on the right to beat whoever takes Hillary's place after she bows out due to legal and/or health issues.

Maybe Cruz already knows this and is hanging tough in order to leverage the best deal.

Just sitting here pondering, maybe I'm way off base but I think not.

[lee n. field]

Someone of der Buchface today opined that this election season is like living in a Left Behind novel.

[Ron]

The absolute alienation from the system so many of us are feeling is probably the most healthy and realistic take on the situation we've ever held.

 

[Scout26]

Everyone has talked about "Trump's Plateau" with the voters.  Yet, no one has mentioned Hillary's.  There's a huge enthusiasm gap on the D side.   The vast majority of the Bernbots aren't going to turn around in November and vote for Hillary, they'll be sitting at home.  Their love for Bernie is only equaled in their hatred for her.  I've heard more then a few refer to Hillary as "Nixon in a pantsuit."  I would not be surprised if those that go to the polls break for Trump.

Remember there's a ~7% margin of favoritism toward the D presidential in most polls.

[grampster]

Can you imagine when Trump becomes the titular head of the R party?  The nominee becomes the leader, win lose or draw.  And if he wins, we won't have to worry about a RINO congress because the majority of them will have their heads explode and Tea Party folks will get appointed to take their place.  Poetic justice.  You heard it here first.

[MechAg94]

Hilary makes Nixon look honest and forthright by comparison.  I don't really think there is a comparison.

[RocketMan]

Everyone has talked about "Trump's Plateau" with the voters.  Yet, no one has mentioned Hillary's.  There's a huge enthusiasm gap on the D side.   The vast majority of the Bernbots aren't going to turn around in November and vote for Hillary, they'll be sitting at home.  Their love for Bernie is only equaled in their hatred for her.  I've heard more then a few refer to Hillary as "Nixon in a pantsuit."  I would not be surprised if those that go to the polls break for Trump.

Remember there's a ~7% margin of favoritism toward the D presidential in most polls.

Remember that most of these polls are of "likely voters", meaning folks who are most likely to vote regardless.  HRC will be POTUS unless the AG has a major brain fade and actually indicts her.

In the meantime, sit back and enjoy the primary theater.  It is certainly entertaining.

[cordex]

If anti-Trump repubs can hold their noses and vote for Trump then anti-Hillary dems can hold their nose and vote for Hillary. Don't kid yourself, the other side plays the same "can't let the other guy get in!" game as your side.

As for polls this early in the race, historically a whole lot changes in the final months of a race.

[Ben]

If anti-Trump repubs can hold their noses and vote for Trump then anti-Hillary dems can hold their nose and vote for Hillary. Don't kid yourself, the other side plays the same "can't let the other guy get in!" game as your side.

As for polls this early in the race, historically a whole lot changes in the final months of a race.

Though I will say there is a LOT of left hate for Clinton. An amount that is surprising to me.

I occasionally read the liberal rag from the liberalville where I used to live, just to check that my blood pressure monitor still works. I read an opinion piece a couple of days ago by a feminist who went off on Hillary, as well as "feminists" like Madeline Albright and Gloria Steinem who insisted women vote for Clinton because she's a woman. Her editorial was pretty much "Bernie or no one", and the comments were running around 10 to 1 in the writer's favor, with most of the commenters adding their own "Hillary sucks" data points. A common theme was, "Yes to a woman president, no to this woman".

I totally get that many dems do what many R's do, and vote the "hold my nose" ballot, but I don't remember there being this much left side Hillary hate when she was up against Obama. Some of what I'm seeing now indicates that the left (at least far left) sees her as practically a Republican, and certainly as a liar*. That can certainly make some of them sit this one out or else go third party or write-in.

* I also think this is where Sanders really hurts her. Though I disagree with about 90% of what Sanders says, I respect that he pretty much says what he means so I know where I stand with him. Clinton says whatever she thinks she needs to say, and the contrast between the two is very evident, even to the left.

[brimic]

Though I will say there is a LOT of left hate for Clinton. An amount that is surprising to me.

My Mom told me that she was voting for Trump- a week ago.

She's a lifelong liberal democrat who supported Hillary in the past.
She told me "Hillary is a criminal and Bernie is a nutjob, but Trump is pretty decent."

[Scout26]

If anti-Trump repubs can hold their noses and vote for Trump then anti-Hillary dems can hold their nose and vote for Hillary. Don't kid yourself, the other side plays the same "can't let the other guy get in!" game as your side.

As for polls this early in the race, historically a whole lot changes in the final months of a race.

I don't think so.  The Bernbots are all about the free stuff.  And he is their Glorious Leader.*   His supporters are the mostly young-ish college types and 20-30 somethings that voted in mass for Obama.   I can't see them holding their noses and voting for Hillary.   She's not one of "them".  She's not young and hip (neither is Bernie, but he's "new".   I have several Bernbots that are friends on FB (and IRL), like Ben said.  They will mostlyh sit home come election day.  If anything, they'll break for Trump, because they hate Hillary more.


*- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYutwjbM5ik

[grampster]

Consider that those D's and Libs who hate Hillary would vote for Trump.  Why?  Because the more GOPe and Cruz go after Trump as a Hillary clone, but not as hateful as Hillary, they'll vote Trump because they believe he will continue the leftist lean in spite of what he says.  I think this is what all the pundits are missing.

 

[BlueStarLizzard]

My Mom told me that she was voting for Trump- a week ago.

She's a lifelong liberal democrat who supported Hillary in the past.
She told me "Hillary is a criminal and Bernie is a nutjob, but Trump is pretty decent."

This is what I've been hearing as well, from life long democrats.

Also, even the one who will vote for Hilary while holding her nose, doesn't mind Trump. It's too bad he didn't decide to run for the democratic ticket, he probably would have done just as well against Hilary as he has in the Republican race.

[Scout26]

This is what I've been hearing as well, from life long democrats.

Also, even the one who will vote for Hilary while holding her nose, doesn't mind Trump. It's too bad he didn't decide to run for the democratic ticket, he probably would have done just as well against Hilary as he has in the Republican race.

I was also surprised by the number of life-long, Cook County Democrats, especially ones that would be considered part of "The Machine", (.gov employees and the like, even Teachers) that came right out (or just hinted) that they would vote Trump in General Election while I did their taxes.    That's where I think the big surprise will be.  Those Blue-Collar, Reagan Democrats are going to break hard for Trump and there's a lot of them out there, of all colors.  The working class black vote especially.  They know that the the illegals are taking their jobs, you just don't hear about their discontent in the MSM.  Neither Hillary nor Bernie are "one of them" especially Hillary.   

[sumpnz]

If Trump pulls out the nomination, and HRC doesn't get indicted, I'm writing in SMOD for the election.

[Hawkmoon]

If anti-Trump repubs can hold their noses and vote for Trump then anti-Hillary dems can hold their nose and vote for Hillary. Don't kid yourself, the other side plays the same "can't let the other guy get in!" game as your side.

Except that our side is still busily playing the "anybody but Trump" game, calling on Trump to change his positions to "unify" with the party rather than calling on the party to stop trying to prevent the [almost] inevitable and to unify behind Trump. The powers that be behind the R party just can't accept that what Trump is selling is what a big chunk of the American people (other than the die-hard Dems) want to buy.

[MechAg94]

If Trump gets the nomination.  How do you think the media will change in their coverage of Trump?  If you watch now, a lot of news channels are 24/7 Trump. 

[grampster]

"...you just don't hear about their discontent in the MSM."

I bet there is a lot you don't hear from the MSM about the D/Lib/Left discontent with Hillary.  The MSM is Hillary's campaign team.  The won't print anything troublesome to their cause unless they absolutely have to.  My view is that the general public has absolutely no idea about what the real political pulse of America is.

[MechAg94]

Thinking about this more, Clinton has not been shy about her anti-gun message.  It has been some years since a candidate ran with an openly anti-gun message.  If she keeps that up into the Fall, I think that would draw out a lot of support for whoever runs against her.

[Firethorn]

As I've said before - I can see trump pulling in the 'anti-establishment' votes from the liberals as well as the conservatives.

He's not particularly conservative, which will enable even liberals to vote for him.

In some ways, running, and winning, as a republican is a masterstroke - he gains the support of everybody to the right of him, and is still encroaching on the left.

We're seeing a lot of Trump hate, but once Bernie loses, and it becomes yet another Establishment vs Non-Establishment contest, what's going to happen?  There's lots of people pissed with the 'establishment', on both the right and the left.  You know, the people making Animal House references, 'new boss same as old boss', and all that?

[Ben]

Thinking about this more, Clinton has not been shy about her anti-gun message.  It has been some years since a candidate ran with an openly anti-gun message.  If she keeps that up into the Fall, I think that would draw out a lot of support for whoever runs against her.

That will be an interesting aspect. Usually they try to moderate their agenda during the campaign, and I think when she ran against Obama she was barely leaning to the gun control side. All the rhetoric out of her camp now is extremely anti-gun. I think anti enough that even many Perazzi shooters will take pause.

[Firethorn]

That will be an interesting aspect. Usually they try to moderate their agenda during the campaign, and I think when she ran against Obama she was barely leaning to the gun control side. All the rhetoric out of her camp now is extremely anti-gun. I think anti enough that even many Perazzi shooters will take pause.

I'd expect her to shut up about it during the general election.  I've heard that recently she's shifted to going after Trump, which is a good indicator that she considers Bernie beat.  With that, I wouldn't be surprised if she shuts up about it, because it's yet one more thing that Trump can use to ensure people get out and vote for him.

[Perd Hapley]

Except that our side is still busily playing the "anybody but Trump" game, calling on Trump to change his positions to "unify" with the party rather than calling on the party to stop trying to prevent the [almost] inevitable and to unify behind Trump. The powers that be behind the R party just can't accept that what Trump is selling is what a big chunk of the American people (other than the die-hard Dems) want to buy.

They, and Trump's supporters, have done the same thing to the other candidate.

[Dannyboy]

The Democrats have treated Bernie Sanders like crap from the very beginning. I'm hoping he runs as an independent. As much as I dislike Trump, I despise "That Woman." Bernie running as an independent would pretty much guarantee that she goes home a loser...and hopefully stays there, never to be heard from again.

[HankB]

Hilary makes Nixon look honest and forthright by comparison.  I don't really think there is a comparison.

Nixon ended the draft and US military involvement in Vietnam shortly before I graduated from high school and turned 18 . . . I'll forgive him a lot for that.

Hillary (and, for that matter, Bill) never did anything that affected me in a positive way.   

Oh, and did anyone catch the George Will editorial in which he says that the best thing conservatives can do is make sure that Trump - if he's the nominee - loses in all 50 states?