Author Topic: And the Battleship begins to turn....  (Read 4488 times)

Scout26

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And the Battleship begins to turn....
« on: November 01, 2016, 06:40:51 PM »
Heard today on the Radio that Trump is ahead and/or even and/or within the margin of error on a couple of polls.

Sounds like they are starting to "adjust" the polls to match what they expect the result to be...
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

230RN

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2016, 07:22:25 PM »
I suspect there's a huge sample bias working there.

Them folk who will vote for Trump won't answer wun uh them gold-durn pea-pickin' busybody surveys.  I'm wun uh them.

While them folk who are so full of pride in their self-righteous nobility and anti-gun global consciousness and do-gooder altruism will be happy and proud to answer surveys, then run out to buy more halo polish.

Dunno how they can accurately account for this kind of bias.

Frankly, I'm more worried about the Electoral College stats.

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Ben

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2016, 07:24:08 PM »
Hillary has apparently done another "reset" and is hammering the woman card. Must. Have. The. First. Woman. President. At. All Costs.

In the meantime, Trump, miraculously, appears to be listening to his advisors and has been letting Clinton destroy herself while he has been light on insults and heavy on policy promotion. A smart move in this timeframe. I guess we'll still have to see what bombs they try and drop on him and how he takes (or ignores) them. There's of course still the chance for even bigger bombs dropped on Clinton.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

RoadKingLarry

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2016, 07:36:27 PM »
I've heard Trump talk about it some but I think he really needs to be hammering on the huge hikes in ACA premiums.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

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French G.

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2016, 08:17:24 PM »
Enthusiasm gap. Hillary is going to suffer people who just don't bother to to vote.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

De Selby

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2016, 08:19:29 PM »
I've heard Trump talk about it some but I think he really needs to be hammering on the huge hikes in ACA premiums.


Check out his speech at PA.

Truthfully I don't think Trump is much different now - he's always been policy heavy.  What he's not doing is giving those10 second sound bites the media love to run as if it's all he says.
"Human existence being an hallucination containing in itself the secondary hallucinations of day and night (the latter an insanitary condition of the atmosphere due to accretions of black air) it ill becomes any man of sense to be concerned at the illusory approach of the supreme hallucination known as death."

Ben

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2016, 08:21:20 PM »
I've heard Trump talk about it some but I think he really needs to be hammering on the huge hikes in ACA premiums.


Yup. I bet the dems are hating that 01NOV came before 08NOV.  =D
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Monkeyleg

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2016, 08:59:43 PM »
Just saw a poll that showed that those who vote on election day would favor Trump by 50% to 39%, while those who voted early favored Clinton. I really think early voting is a mistake, as many of those voters would probably like to change their votes if they could

RocketMan

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2016, 09:17:15 PM »
The early voting will be a major contributor to Clinton's unfortunate victory.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

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Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

MechAg94

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2016, 09:45:54 PM »
The early voting will be a major contributor to Clinton's unfortunate victory.

"you can be happy if you've a mind to"    =)
https://youtu.be/skFWsc_-i14
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Scout26

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2016, 11:25:52 PM »
http://www.wral.com/wral-poll-trump-charges-ahead-in-nc/16183780/

Again, the polls are starting to swing to what the pollsters suspect the actual result will be.  No news agency wants to repeat 1980.  Being able to say "Hey, our polls are the most accurate !!!"  becomes most important as it gets closer to Election Day.  The days of Push-Polling is ending, now it's about getting it right.
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Tuco

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2016, 11:27:01 PM »
"you can be happy if you've a mind to"    =)
https://youtu.be/skFWsc_-i14


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Scout26

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2016, 01:15:31 AM »
Just saw a poll that showed that those who vote on election day would favor Trump by 50% to 39%, while those who voted early favored Clinton. I really think early voting is a mistake, as many of those voters would probably like to change their votes if they could

Having been working the early voting polls.  I'm not seeing the early voters (at least here) as being very pro-Hillary.   Most are middle aged, middle class.   They seem to be more of Trump's target demographic and not Hillary's.
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

HankB

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2016, 06:58:20 AM »
I've been getting a LOT of phone calls lately - I let my answering machine take them, and 19 out of 20 times they don't leave a message.

I figure it's nearly all political polling, political advertising, and telemarketing. I don't feel like talking to ANY of these people.

And as for the election itself, remember, it doesn't matter who votes or how they vote, all that matters is who COUNTS the votes.
Trump won in 2016. Democrats haven't been so offended since Republicans came along and freed their slaves.
Sometimes I wonder if the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it. - Mark Twain
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2016, 08:49:13 AM »
As much as I'd like for the resurgence of optimism about a Clinton loss not to be misplaced, unless Comey and company manage to pull a rabbit out of his ass and disclose some serious *expletive deleted*it on the Clinton crime family, a week from now she will be president-elect.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

AJ Dual

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2016, 04:48:11 PM »
I was in our KC office for an IT support visit last week on Thursday when the Comey/FBI Weiner-laptop reopening news broke.

I could overhear one of the analysts and the receptionist talking about if it's possible to change an early/absentee vote in the next office over.  :rofl:
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Perd Hapley

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2016, 06:08:54 PM »
I was in our KC office for an IT support visit last week on Thursday when the Comey/FBI Weiner-laptop reopening news broke.

I could overhear one of the analysts and the receptionist talking about if it's possible to change an early/absentee vote in the next office over.  :rofl:


I don't understand why anyone's changing their vote over this. What's currently being alleged, that wasn't already, in Comey's last investigation? Why do they care that she's being investigated now, but apparently didn't care about all the things Comey already said, about all the laws that were broken?
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AJ Dual

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2016, 07:31:05 PM »

I don't understand why anyone's changing their vote over this. What's currently being alleged, that wasn't already, in Comey's last investigation? Why do they care that she's being investigated now, but apparently didn't care about all the things Comey already said, about all the laws that were broken?

I think part of it is that people like us who "pay attention" have a hard time internalizing the perspective of people who are more superficial about politics. And it's only deepened by the modern era of short attention spans, and constant streams of distractions and pop culture in a variety of platforms that just didn't exist even 20 years ago.  It also comes from the still very much majority center-Left bias of the MSM which many people still believe to be impartial.

The whole original chain of Benghazi, the mail server, the emails, classified materials on a non .gov server/system, to a lot of people, it just looks like "Meh... politics... (shrug)" to them. They have a dismissive view that the whole thing is either some sort of tit-for-tat partisan exercise, or they believe they possess some sort of cosmopolitan wisdom if they decide that "Everybody does stuff like that in politics, Hillary just screwed up and got caught... sorta."

So when the whole thing rolls around TWICE.. and the MSM is all abuzz that Comey had to "re-open the investigation" and people clue into into the fact it's related to Anthony Weiner and sexting, (A more pop-culture/tabloid and salacious angle that gets attention) it finally starts to cut through the brain-fog that blankets the mind of your average American. And some of them start to get an inkling that there's actual a "there" there and all the claims of Hillary's corruption might actually have some merit.
I promise not to duck.

Hawkmoon

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2016, 07:52:53 PM »

I don't understand why anyone's changing their vote over this. What's currently being alleged, that wasn't already, in Comey's last investigation? Why do they care that she's being investigated now, but apparently didn't care about all the things Comey already said, about all the laws that were broken?

Because Comey trivialized the broken laws by announcing that no "reasonable" prosecutor would take it to trial, and by saying she was "careless" with classified documents while completely glossing over the fact that "carelessness" = "negligence," and that's the basis of the law she broke. The result being that he left large segments of the population with the impression that HRC didn't really do anything bad, she was just a bit ditzy with the computer stuff.
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Blakenzy

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2016, 07:56:31 PM »
What is all this I keep reading on the fringe about the Weiner new emails containing evidence of a underage sex ring racket involving the Clintons? Any substance to that?

Also... what motivated Comey to actually put his weight behind re-opening the investigation on Clinton? After all, he totally whitewashed her the first time, twisting the interpretation of Law in her favor... Was it internal pressure from honest agents? Was it pressure from other higher interests that have decided a Trump victory is a high risk and that Clinton would be a liablity and must be cut loose? Was it actually something so grave he discovered that could just not be covered up?
"Knowledge will forever govern ignorance, and a people who mean to be their own governors, must arm themselves with the power knowledge gives. A popular government without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a farce or a tragedy or perhaps both"

Scout26

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2016, 09:16:54 PM »
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

brimic

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2016, 11:26:40 AM »
Meanwhile the stock market reacts....

http://www.allenbwest.com/matt-palumbo/according-stock-market-race

Yep, VIX has gone crazy since friday... I've closed all of my positions except one(1) until after elections. A rise in VIX is a great thing- it causes options to be overpriced, which then crash as the VIX goes down and things go back to normal.

(1)Currently holding a losing credit spread on FB- I expected the price to move 5-6 % on earnings last night then return 1/2 way back to yesterday's closing price, but uncertainty seems to be keeping the price down. FWIW, I ran the same plays on AAPL and AMZN earnings days and made out like a bandit.
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

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MechAg94

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2016, 12:12:20 PM »
Another thing I heard discussed was the difference between who people say they are voting for and who they think will win.  I can't remember if what I heard was only in a particular state, but they pointed out that Trump had the lead when counting who people were voting for, but the majority still thought Hillary would win. 

Then I saw a headline on Breitbart saying CNN beat out Fox News for monthly ratings for the first time in about 15 years.  The article talked about Fox taking a perceived anti-Trump position. 
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Angel Eyes

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2016, 03:15:42 PM »
""If you elect me, your taxes are going to be raised, not cut."
                         - master strategist Joe Biden

Perd Hapley

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Re: And the Battleship begins to turn....
« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2016, 04:37:06 PM »
News flash: a Trump presidency is not TEOTWAWKI:  http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/03/black-swan-author-nassim-taleb-you-dont-have-to-worry-about-a-trump-presidency.html



He should spread the word in Hollywood.

Quote
“I’m *expletive deleted*ing terrified,” said writer-director Adam McKay, via email. “If Trump were to win we will see a dismantling of our democracy we cannot imagine. I know that sounds dramatic but I think it’s a safe bet. I’m hoping silent sane Americans rise up to stamp down this ugliness. At the end of the day I still believe humans are getting better and smarter and that Trump is a burp from a bygone era.”

On Twitter in the past 24 hours, a number of entertainment figures have not been shy about sharing their concerns.

“I will be funny in December,” wrote Judd Apatow, responding to a Twitter query. “For now I am more concerned with not electing a madman who incites violence and racism.”

http://variety.com/2016/biz/news/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-hollywood-panic-fear-1201907750/

How bizzare is that? A blustering businessman with funny hair, and a reality show, is supposed to be the second coming of Hitler? Some folks are gullible.


As for someone who incites violence and racism - did Apatow vote for Obama?
"Doggies are angel babies!" -- my wife