Author Topic: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton  (Read 5461 times)

MillCreek

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Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« on: November 08, 2016, 08:59:49 AM »
What do you think? Landslide or a narrow margin of victory?
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RocketMan

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2016, 09:04:53 AM »
HRC 52% to Trump 45%.  Four to six points of HRC's count will be fraudulent.
The remaining points go to the also rans.
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MillCreek

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2016, 09:23:26 AM »
Secretary Clinton:  55 %    Mr. Trump:  40%     Third parties:  5%
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MillCreek
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

TommyGunn

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2016, 09:32:45 AM »
Clinton:    50.1%
Trump:     48.5%
Some other idiot:  1.4%
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makattak

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #4 on: November 08, 2016, 09:50:38 AM »
No one will be close to 50%. (They will all be under by at least 3 points.) There's my prediction.
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MillCreek

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #5 on: November 08, 2016, 01:13:09 PM »
As of six minutes ago, Bloomberg is reporting that stocks are up 112 points, bonds are down and the dollar has strengthened as continued polling shows Secretary Clinton maintains her lead.
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MillCreek
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

Ben

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #6 on: November 08, 2016, 01:29:34 PM »
As of six minutes ago, Bloomberg is reporting that stocks are up 112 points, bonds are down and the dollar has strengthened as continued polling shows Secretary Clinton maintains her lead.

I simply cannot understand the stock market being pro-Clinton. Especially if she's elected and passes her "six years for capital gains" crap. I'm no fat cat and that's a decent portion of my retirement income.

If she's elected, I'm looking at everything I can do to manipulate my income and cheat on my taxes to ensure I'm in a <15% tax bracket.  I'll probably even show numbers to put myself on the Obamacare, even though it'll likely only be for a year, since Anthem is supposedly pulling out in 2018.

She'll be absolutely terrible for anyone who plans on living on invested income.
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AJ Dual

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #7 on: November 08, 2016, 03:28:37 PM »
I simply cannot understand the stock market being pro-Clinton. Especially if she's elected and passes her "six years for capital gains" crap. I'm no fat cat and that's a decent portion of my retirement income.

If she's elected, I'm looking at everything I can do to manipulate my income and cheat on my taxes to ensure I'm in a <15% tax bracket.  I'll probably even show numbers to put myself on the Obamacare, even though it'll likely only be for a year, since Anthem is supposedly pulling out in 2018.

She'll be absolutely terrible for anyone who plans on living on invested income.

Presumably because it means 4 more years of the status-quo in terms of economic policy, quantitative easing, low almost-zero interest rates which means you can borrow money and invest and get returns way faster than you have to pay interest. All of which has been very good for the market and asset class, while the street-level brick-n-mortar economy and jobs, people who rely on income have been stagnant, or even in decline.

A Trump presidency might jumpstart the physical economy, which will increase the money supply velocity, which will push (real) inflation, and force the Federal Reserve to raise rates.  And a large number of investment banks that have perfected how to make money in the “paper economy” will have to completely switch gears and figure out how to do fundamentals analysis again, and try to pick stocks based on the actual commercial performance of the businesses that those stocks and other investment vehicles represent.

And of course there's her "public vs. private" positions, and what she's said in all those paid Wall Street speeches.
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Ben

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #8 on: November 08, 2016, 03:34:53 PM »
Problem is, the longer these ridiculous rates continue (or maybe even going to negative rates) the harsher the return to reality will be. It's gonna be really bad anyway, but will only get worse the longer we wait. We should really be around 4-5% right now.
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AJ Dual

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #9 on: November 08, 2016, 03:39:10 PM »
Problem is, the longer these ridiculous rates continue (or maybe even going to negative rates) the harsher the return to reality will be. It's gonna be really bad anyway, but will only get worse the longer we wait. We should really be around 4-5% right now.

And... there's people who know how to make billions, trillions maybe on the "return to reality" and the pain. (And perhaps those who've fooled themselves that they can.)

Hell, even when Brexit went against Soros who was backing a bunch of "Stay" initiatives in the U.K., he somehow managed to short some positions the night of the referendum that were poised to shrink if "Leave" won, and he made a vew billion more.
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Ron

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #10 on: November 08, 2016, 03:41:00 PM »
Hillary 46% and Trump 42%

It will be a tough pill to swallow.


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mellestad

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2016, 03:46:19 PM »
The market values stability, Trump does not (like him or not) represent stability. It isn't more complicated than that.

Ron

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #12 on: November 08, 2016, 03:58:33 PM »
The market values stability, Trump does not (like him or not) represent stability. It isn't more complicated than that.
Even more primal than that.

Mostly it's about fear.

Fear of instability
Fear of change
Fear of social unrest
Fear of war
Fear of being called racist
Fear of being socially ostracized. 

They effectively made Trump the scarier option.
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De Selby

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #13 on: November 08, 2016, 05:35:58 PM »
The market values stability, Trump does not (like him or not) represent stability. It isn't more complicated than that.

When you say the market, you should be clear that you mean Goldman Sachs and everyone else who can afford a Clinton fundraising dinner.

Obviously people who work in jobs without degrees overwhelmingly value change.
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Ben

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #14 on: November 08, 2016, 06:12:47 PM »
And... there's people who know how to make billions, trillions maybe on the "return to reality" and the pain. (And perhaps those who've fooled themselves that they can.)

This is true. Honestly, any money I have on the sidelines will go into the market without hesitation at a 1000 point DOW drop. If it continues to drop, I'll continue to put whatever money I can into it. Lots of people however, can't do that. Lots of 401Ks are gonna take big hits and lots of people will be putting off retirement, possibly for years.

If we'd had a sane and slow adjustment, people most likely to be hurt would be hurt less. As you say, those "in the know" will take care of themselves. That's what most don't seem to understand with policies like Clinton's: It always sounds good to the middle class to hear the rich will be soaked, but the middle class will take a big chunk of the hit.

While a Trump presidency would be a hard short term hit, much like BREXIT, long term it grows wealth for everyone. Nobody has the attention span for long term anymore though.
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Hawkmoon

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #15 on: November 08, 2016, 06:52:12 PM »
Trump 49%
Clinton 46%
Other 5%
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
100% Politically Incorrect by Design

TommyGunn

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #16 on: November 08, 2016, 07:22:12 PM »
I simply cannot understand the stock market being pro-Clinton. Especially if she's elected and passes her "six years for capital gains" crap. I'm no fat cat and that's a decent portion of my retirement income.

If she's elected, I'm looking at everything I can do to manipulate my income and cheat on my taxes to ensure I'm in a <15% tax bracket.  I'll probably even show numbers to put myself on the Obamacare, even though it'll likely only be for a year, since Anthem is supposedly pulling out in 2018.

She'll be absolutely terrible for anyone who plans on living on invested income.


I must have missed her "six years for capital gains."   What  ??? S that?
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Andiron

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #17 on: November 08, 2016, 07:45:20 PM »
Trump 49%
Clinton 46.5%
*Write ins and various disaffected types and idiots: 4.5%

*Getting my Libertarian hate on here, simply because they suck, and I'm pissed I couldn't vote FOR them.  Might as well continue to play the damage control game.
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Ben

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #18 on: November 08, 2016, 08:38:53 PM »

I must have missed her "six years for capital gains."   What  ??? S that?

She wants to change the rules on long term capital gains. They don't become long term and get the lower tax rate for six years instead of one. I'm no day trader by any means, but I don't want to be stuck with short term tax penalties for six years if I sell something in that time. Or not being able to move my money around if one source sucks (say stocks dive and bonds go up), or heck, if I just need the money for an unexpected expense.

The big boys can probably handle it, but once again, the rules she wants to make to "stick it to the Wall Street fat cats" will end up hurting the little guy without fat cat resources.
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DustinD

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2016, 08:44:11 PM »
How does the popular vote normally swing during the night? Do small towns tend to report sooner than big cities? Is the Republican being ahead in the popular vote early a good sign or normal?
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Ron

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #20 on: November 08, 2016, 08:49:33 PM »
It seems the big city counties always report last.

If Trump stays in a virtual dead heat in Florida, once Miami/Dade reports he loses.
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Ben

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #21 on: November 08, 2016, 08:53:29 PM »
It seems the big city counties always report last.

If Trump stays in a virtual dead heat in Florida, once Miami/Dade reports he loses.

Right now they're showing 91% of the FL votes in and Trump almost one point ahead. Really close. I wonder if Florida is going to be Florida again?
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lupinus

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #22 on: November 08, 2016, 08:55:47 PM »
Right now they're showing 91% of the FL votes in and Trump almost one point ahead. Really close. I wonder if Florida is going to be Florida again?
Still to close to call but two things going for him IMO. Hillary isn't taking away with as many as expected and every uptick at the moment has gone to him.

Still way to close, but she's not running away in areas she was supposed to be.


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Ben

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2016, 09:02:17 PM »
Still to close to call but two things going for him IMO. Hillary isn't taking away with as many as expected and every uptick at the moment has gone to him.

Still way to close, but she's not running away in areas she was supposed to be.


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NC seems to actually be more of a photo finish than FL. Dead tie right now.

I was quite surprised by PA. I didn't really know if the state was leaning D or R, but damn, they went nearly 80% Clinton. That might beat out CA.
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DustinD

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Re: Place your bets: final vote percentage for President Clinton
« Reply #24 on: November 08, 2016, 09:21:48 PM »
PA started turning closer to 50 / 50 once more people started reporting in. You were probably seeing data from only a few districts.
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