This is going to be a slap upside the head for a lot of government contractors. It's been a long time since someone who understands business and contracts has been in the big chair. Also someone who can spot "unanticipated cost overrun" crap. Also someone who is the antithesis of the Pelosis in politics who looks at this stuff in a utilitarian way versus a "perk" way.
I know no one who knows could ever say, but I'd be really interested in the costs of offensive/defensive systems, countermeasures, and other security components that go into the aircraft above and beyond "regular" build costs. I would still agree that even the most sophisticated stuff is not going to add up to the current price. I AM willing to bet there's at least 10 million in "travel" built into the budgets.
EDIT: I would also guffaw if these end up going through with revisions, that Trump insists that all office furniture, etc. be sourced from the regular GSA sources and that there are no $50,000 wood desks, designer sofas, etc. in the living/work quarters.
Unfortunately, not possible. All fixed furniture has to pass flammability tests to be mounted in an aircraft, per FAA regs. It doesn't have to be designer or luxury, but the cost difference isn't huge between a regular seat and an ultra luxury seat. I mean, it is, but not comparatively speaking. Brand new, a two seat module might run you $50k-70k. A three seat module $70k-$100k. Bulk purchasing drives that down significantly, but that's realistic pricing for a low volume purchase. A single first class seat will cost you $80k. A head of state seat will cost $100k. Maybe $150k if you use certain ultra high grade material. So a POTUS seat is roughly twice as expensive (before markups, obviously) as the cheap 'swine' grade seating in your cheapest econo-airline. Maybe near same pricing.
A "no frills" prison labor grade desk made to aircraft specs would cost you $50k for FAA compliance, flammability rated material, etc. The President of South Korea's aircraft desk was around $100k plus install labor. It was very nice but also armored. So, yes, it's a lot of money but it's not a huge scale issue. The biggest issue is space and weight, not cost. Trying to retrofit GSA bog standard kit to FAA compliance would probably cost ten times as much as just buying standard aircraft kit. Because you'd do so by throwing out the GSA stuff, and trying to make something that looked like it out of aircraft grade parts.
Now, missile defenses ARE hideously expensive if you are looking at low volume sales. Assuming you can get the paperwork approved, you can and should cheat by using military anti-missile defenses. For some uh, "special aircraft", we used radios typically found on F-16's, some Euro LIDAR and some anti-missile defenses typically found on bombers or transport aircraft. That's a spot where defense contractors can and do markup insanely. Snag a chaff and flare module off an AC-130, with a unit cost of say, $2m because you make tens of thousands of them. Give it a new SKU as "El Presidente Grade Countermeasure Suite" and mark it as $30m because you make "tens" of them. Sadly THAT kind of skimming is more honest than actually developing a brand new countermeasure suite at the cost of hundreds of millions when you could have snagged an existing system for a tenth or hundredth a price. But cost plus accounting lends itself to reinventing the wheel. If you're capped at 5% margin, you can double your profits by doubling the project cost.
EMP/EMI resistant stuff is just hideously expensive period.
The way to get the aircraft down in cost is to get an honest person at the project manager. And give them the authority to beat up procurement as well as the vendor.
Given that the base plane is roughly $380M, I'd say that $500M is low. $1B is reasonable given the level of modification. The anticipated $2B cost per plane is not.
I doubt it. The furniture pretty much has to be custom anyways because it has to fit on the plane, be light yet secure, and seating like the sofas need to be able to have people strap in. The market for aircraft desks is not so large for that stuff to NOT be custom, I think.
Now a base model as opposed to the extreme posh? More doable, but I think even Trump will realize(or somebody will tell him) that the poshness of Air Force 1 is a reflection on the USA.
Actually, good catch. They are using a 747-8, which is in the $350m ballpark. Mentally I was assuming they were using previous VIP birds based around the 747-400m which is $200m-$250m. I'd still argue from personal experience that I could Presidentialize an 747 for around $200m, maybe $300m. Per bird, obviously. While still pocketing huge markups. A billion per bird is still high, but probably 'reasonable' to the defense aircraft procurement folks. It shouldn't be.
