Author Topic: Global Waming "Evidence"?  (Read 16119 times)

m1911owner

  • friend
  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 307
Global Waming "Evidence"?
« on: January 24, 2007, 09:27:55 AM »
Amid all the screeching about, "Human-caused global warming is a proven, scientific fact, and we're all going to die!", it occurs to me that I haven't actually heard any of the screechers present any actual evidence that humans are in fact causing global warming.

What I have heard and read are:

1. Statistical indications of rising temperatures:

a.  A generally-conceded statistic that global mean temperatures have risen by a fraction of one degree Fahrenheit over the last hundred years.  (I note that while this figure is "generally-conceded", it is still somewhat in doubt because our temperature recording stations are mostly in "heat islands" (typically airports) that are problematic to compensate for.)

b.  Satellite readings of atmospheric temperatures that have stubbornly refused to show "global warming", until somebody recently figured out how to fudge the data to get it to show "global warming."

2.  Various anedotal "proof" of "global warming":

a.  "The polar caps are melting!!!" (Not mentioning that there is a 50-year freeze-thaw cycle, and the arctic is now in the "thaw" part of that cycle.)

b.  "The glaciers are melting!!!"  (Not mentioning that other glaciers are growing.)

c.  "The seas are rising!!!"  (I haven't seen any actual evidence of that, only screeches.)

d.  Assorted other anecdotes.

3.  A great deal of hysterical screeching that (1) and (2) prove that humans are causing "global warming."

They have presented no evidence at all, that I have seen, showing that there is any connection whatsoever between human activities, and the "evidence" in (1) and (2).

The closest I have seen is the measurable fact that CO2 levels have been rising for a long time.  But, from what I've seen, the correlation in time between CO2 levels and fluctuations in mean global temperatures is very close to zero.  Hardly what one could call "evidence" with a straight face.

So, my question--Have I simply missed the "smoking gun" that everyone else is aware of (in which case, would somebody please explain it to me?), or is it indeed the case that no causal connection has been demonstrated, despite all the screeching?

StopTheGrays

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 730
  • bah...
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #1 on: January 24, 2007, 09:52:32 AM »
What!?!?!? You cannot mean Al Gore is making it up? What is next? There is no man-bear-pig either?  sad






 laugh

Does any image illustrate so neatly the wrongheadedness of the Obama administration than Americans scrambling in terror from Air Force One?
Just great…Chicago politics has spread to all 57 states.
They told me if I voted for John McCain, my country would look like it is run by people with a disturbing affinity towards fascism. And they were right!

Brad Johnson

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18,140
  • Witty, charming, handsome, and completely insane.
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #2 on: January 24, 2007, 10:11:48 AM »
Quote
What!?!?!? You cannot mean Al Gore is making it up? What is next? There is no man-bear-pig either

This problem is thuper therial!

Brad
It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
-HankB

Iain

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 3,490
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #3 on: January 24, 2007, 11:04:02 AM »
One question m1911owner - where exactly are you doing your reading and what qualifies you to make the series of judgements about the evidence that you make?

The journey to alternative sources written by scientists (qualified I might add), that I will keep posting links to, can be started here - www.realclimate.org

Read it and come back and tell us that your original post was exactly on the money.
I do not like, when with me play, and I think that you also

m1911owner

  • friend
  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 307
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #4 on: January 24, 2007, 11:20:20 AM »
Iain, in the case of my original post, I was commenting on the near-daily screeching of doom that I see in the general media.  In which I have yet to see any evidence presented or even aluded to of any causal connection between human activity and "global warming."  As far as "what qualifies [me] to make the series of judgements about the evidence that you make", my main point is that I'm still waiting to see any actual evidence of a causal connection; I can't really make a judgement on evidence that isn't even being presented.

I looked over a few articles linked on the realclimate page you pointed to, and in the articles I happened to pick out I saw tons of anecdotes about places experiencing weather (which has been going on for several billion years now, without needing help from humans), but I didn't see any evidence presented of a causal connection between any human activity and "global warming."

Perhaps you could point out a specific article on that site which discusses this?

Iain

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 3,490
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #5 on: January 24, 2007, 11:48:38 AM »
I agree that media reporting is usually less than perfect, after all there are few issues that many of us think the media do a good job on, and even fewer where we have any special knowledge or interest.

That aside, there is significant danger of babies going out with bathwater. Al Gore and others may be running around giving us worst case scenarios, and the motives of some may be questionable, but the case cannot be dismissed purely on the basis of the irritating nature of the most prominent advocates.

I'll be honest here, I'm not a climate scientist. Nothing that has been posted on these discussions in the past has convinced me that I'm any more or less qualified to have this discussion than anyone else, and I don't think I'm qualified at all. If your motive in posting this was pure in the sense that you are looking for genuine discussion about this issue I think you've come to the wrong place. Firstly because I'm about the only vocal 'contrarian' about and I'm not a climate scientist and in no position to debate the science. Secondly, neither is anyone else that has yet contributed to these threads. Third, the vast majority of these threads are little more than the seeking of reassurance amongst those who share the same viewpoint and so the same points crop up again and again, which is why I post specific links to realclimate where I can.

So I'll give you this - http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/10/q-a-global-warming/ - as a starting point, which links to a Q&A with John M. Wallace of the University of Washington (who according to realclimate was initially a sceptic) The second question is specifically on the link between human activities and CO2

I don't link to realclimate because they are my holy grail, the arbiter of truth and right in my universe, I'm not in a position to make judgements about what they say. I post links there because they have tackled (not a value judgement) almost every one of the usual 'this is/isn't happening because...' arguments that I've yet read.

I've also had a quick scan through this - http://bostonreview.net/BR32.1/emanuel.html - which is written by a meterologist at MIT, and is recommended reading by realclimate. It seems readable and clear, with this of note:

Quote
The IPCC reports are fairly candid about what we collectively know and where the uncertainties probably lie. In the first category are findings that are not in dispute, not even by les refusards:

• Concentrations of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide, methane, ozone, and nitrous oxide are increasing owing to fossil-fuel consumption and biomass burning. Carbon dioxide has increased from its pre-industrial level of about 280 parts per million (ppmv) to about 380 ppmv today, an increase of about 35 percent. From ice-core records, it is evident that present levels of CO2 exceed those experienced by the planet at any time over at least the past 650,000 years.

• Concentrations of certain anthropogenic aerosols have also increased owing to industrial activity.

• The earth’s average surface temperature has increased by about 1.2°F in the past century, with most of the increase occurring from about 1920 to 1950, and again beginning around 1975. The year 2005 was the warmest in the instrumental record.

• Sea level has risen by about 2.7 inches over the past 40 years; of this, a little over an inch occurred during the past decade.

• The annual mean geographical extent of arctic sea ice has decreased by 15 to 20 percent since satellite measurements of this began in 1978.

Now, I should note that if argument is sought there is little point anyone arguing with me. Not because my mind is made up, but because my google jedi is as strong as anyone elses', and that's about all it seems any of us here have got on this issue.
I do not like, when with me play, and I think that you also

m1911owner

  • friend
  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 307
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #6 on: January 24, 2007, 12:17:38 PM »
Iain, thank you for the time you spent in your post.  I read through the Q&A, and again, it says pretty much as I related in my original post.  It indicates a rather small increase in average global temperatures, acknowledges that some places are getting warmer, some colder, some ice masses are shrinking, and some are growing.  And then it immediately assumes that all changes are due to human activity, and proceeds forth under that assumption, with absolutely no evidence presented that there is a connection between human activity and the weather.

The same is the case the bostonreview quote.  Particularly ironic is that they note the pattern of warming and cooling over the last century, and fail to point out that that pattern is almost completely uncorrelated with "greenhouse gas" levels.

Edit to add: I do believe that it is pretty clear that human activities have increased CO2 levels in the atmosphere--I'm not questioning that.  What I am objecting to is the apparently unquestioned assumption that this increase in CO2 is having a major impact in on climate.  As I understand it, CO2 is a quite weak "greenhouse gas", and its effects are pretty much totally swamped by the effects of water vapor, which is a much stronger greenhouse gas.  I don't think the buildup of CO2 is a good thing, and if it continues to increase over a long period of time will probably cause something to break, but I haven't seen any evidence that there is any correlation between CO2 and global temperatures that would lead me to believe that there is any substantial causal relationship.

Iain

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 3,490
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #7 on: January 24, 2007, 12:47:38 PM »
There is a really good article on realclimate about water vapour. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/04/water-vapour-feedback-or-forcing/

To summarise my understanding of it - yes water vapour is an important part of the greenhouse effect, but it isn't as strong as is commonly claimed (95-98%). Also, water vapour is a feedback mechanism, put crudely, if something causes the temperature to rise water vapour levels will also rise and so cause the majority of the warming experienced. However, on average water vapour remains in the atmosphere for only ten days and so doesn't cause long term warming.
I do not like, when with me play, and I think that you also

Ron

  • Guest
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #8 on: January 24, 2007, 01:59:36 PM »
While I have reservations about the human role in any warming I am willing to concede that scientists believe we are warming.

If that is the case I am more concerned with our actions in regards to adapting to climate warming than I am concerned with reversing a trend nobody is sure we have even caused.

We need to roll with it, we are coming out of the little ice age.

mustanger98

  • friend
  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 409
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #9 on: January 24, 2007, 02:06:32 PM »
What!?!?!? You cannot mean Al Gore is making it up? What is next? There is no man-bear-pig either?  sad laugh

I'm reminded of yesterday's Day by Day... Damon saying "if Al Gore's theories on deforestation fall down... does anyone still hear them?". grin

mountainclmbr

  • friend
  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 399
  • Sunset, Casa Mountainclmbr
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #10 on: January 24, 2007, 02:10:52 PM »
This site has a lot of information:

http://www.junkscience.com/
Just say no to Obama, Osama and Chelsea's mama.

Tallpine

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 23,172
  • Grumpy Old Grandpa
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #11 on: January 24, 2007, 05:09:35 PM »
Quote
and we're all going to die!

Well ... wouldn't the enviro-nazis think that human extinction would be a good thing for the global ecosystem Huh?
Freedom is a heavy load, a great and strange burden for the spirit to undertake. It is not easy. It is not a gift given, but a choice made, and the choice may be a hard one. The road goes upward toward the light; but the laden traveller may never reach the end of it.  - Ursula Le Guin

Harold Tuttle

  • Professor Chromedome
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,069
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #12 on: January 24, 2007, 05:34:22 PM »
It seems to me global ice ages suck more than polar melting.

Its kind of hard to shovel a mile thick sheet.

Mayhaps the unintended consequence of our environmental impact is thwarting the big cool off.

"The true mad scientist does not make public appearances! He does not wear the "Hello, my name is.." badge!
He strikes from below like a viper or on high like a penny dropped from the tallest building around!
He only has one purpose--Do bad things to good people! Mit science! What good is science if no one gets hurt?!"

Harold Tuttle

  • Professor Chromedome
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,069
"The true mad scientist does not make public appearances! He does not wear the "Hello, my name is.." badge!
He strikes from below like a viper or on high like a penny dropped from the tallest building around!
He only has one purpose--Do bad things to good people! Mit science! What good is science if no one gets hurt?!"

wacki

  • friend
  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 361
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #14 on: January 24, 2007, 07:14:43 PM »
This site has a lot of information:

http://www.junkscience.com/

This man is a fraud and a hack.  Anyone that blames acid rain on volcanoes and says CFC's are too heavy to float in the air should not be taken seriously by anyone that has an inkling of a clue.


Sergeant Bob

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 5,861
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2007, 01:45:54 AM »
Personally, I do not understand how a bunch of people demanding a bigger govt can call themselves anarchist.
I meet lots of folks like this, claim to be anarchist but really they're just liberals with pierced genitals. - gunsmith

I already have canned butter, buying more. Canned blueberries, some pancake making dry goods and the end of the world is gonna be delicious.  -French G

Standing Wolf

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 2,978
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #16 on: January 25, 2007, 03:38:39 AM »
It's a plain fact the earth has warmed and cooled considerably over the ages.

It may, indeed, be the case that Homo sapiens has had some very small effect upon the planet's weather.

That said", the socialist so-called "necessary action" to combat so-called "global warming" is just another eruption of leftist extremist tyranny, intrinsically no different from the horrors of Bolshevism, Nazism, Maoism, et cetera. Leftist extremist "cures" are invariably infinitely worse than the "problems" they purport to address.
No tyrant should ever be allowed to die of natural causes.

richyoung

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 1,242
  • bring a big gun
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #17 on: January 25, 2007, 06:49:22 AM »
This man is a fraud and a hack.  Anyone that blames acid rain on volcanoes and says CFC's are too heavy to float in the air should not be taken seriously by anyone that has an inkling of a clue.



BY ALL MEANS,
lets talk about the PREVIOUS environmental and climatological case of "Chicken Little-ism", CFCs and the hole in the ozone (that only occasionally happens at the South Pole, and threatens no one, and doesn't exist anymore, despite the fact that the "turd world" is producing and dumping into the atmosphere Freon at record levels....).   Billions of dollars spent to re-tool residential and vehicle cooling systems for ABSOLUTELY NO REASON.  I am sick of the idiot doomsayers. angry
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't...

Iain

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 3,490
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #18 on: January 25, 2007, 09:11:40 AM »
Not going to get into that too much. That is a contrarian claim, it is contrary to the accepted science of ozone depletion (cue "well it was once accepted that the earth is flat") and it is only supported by a handful of scientists (cue "consensus is not how science works"). Not going to bother exchanging links about subjects in which neither of us are educated, two blind men arguing about which way to go is an amusing sight to the sighted.
I do not like, when with me play, and I think that you also

richyoung

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 1,242
  • bring a big gun
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2007, 10:40:03 AM »
Polar vortex and stratospheric ice cloud formation are now known factors.  Ozone hole is a dead issue - hence the emphasis on "global warming".
Those who beat their swords into plowshares will plow for those who don't...

Brad Johnson

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 18,140
  • Witty, charming, handsome, and completely insane.
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2007, 12:14:50 PM »
Quote
it is contrary to the accepted science of ozone depletion


Accepted by whom, to what degree, and with what causality?

Brad
It's all about the pancakes, people.
"And he thought cops wouldn't chase... a STOLEN DONUT TRUCK???? That would be like Willie Nelson ignoring a pickup full of weed."
-HankB

mountainclmbr

  • friend
  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 399
  • Sunset, Casa Mountainclmbr
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2007, 01:35:16 PM »
I must admit that I don't know much about ozone science.

I have climbed, and stood at the crater edge or near steam vents of more than one volcano though. Some I have climbed ooze sulpher-laden steam fairly slowly like Mt. Ranier, Mt. Hood, Mt. Cayambe and Mt. Gede. Others have pretty high outputs like Cotopaxi (Ecuador) and Popocapetl (Mexico) where everything is stained yellow from the sulphur. It smells like a thousand matches being struck under your nose at the same time. Popocatepetl in Mexico has been erupting so violently for the last several years that it is closed to climbers. There are hundreds or thousands of other volcanos with some level of activity and that are releasing sulphur into the air that causes sulphuric acid content in rain. This is the same effect caused by burning high-sulphur coal in power plants. I agree with the environmentalists that we should try to clean up power plants, but we can't put big blue UN corks in the volcanos, therefore we can't eliminate all acid rain.

One of my pet peeves is a low-flush volume toilet in my home. It is mandated for water conservation. It uses one half the water of a normal toilet every flush. The problem is that it works so poorly that I usually have to flush it four times. I checked with a plumber about getting a replacement. He advised against it because he said the toilets meeting the newest standards would work even worse. I can't repeat what he said about the politicians that enacted this law!
Just say no to Obama, Osama and Chelsea's mama.

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,894
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2007, 07:29:47 PM »
Quote
"well it was once accepted that the earth is flat"
I really dislike this argument.  How many scientists were there in the 1400's to argue this concept and debate it? 

Wasn't the circumference of the earth measured long before this time?  Maybe my memory is off.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,894
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2007, 07:32:49 PM »
http://sunship.currentsky.com/measure.html
The Eratosthenes Measurement


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flat_earth
More perspective from Wikipedia.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

m1911owner

  • friend
  • Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 307
Re: Global Waming "Evidence"?
« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2007, 07:59:32 PM »
OK, I for one am willing to agree that the fact that some people may or may not have once believed that the earth is flat says nothing at all about whether current opinions about "global warming" will ultimately prove to be true or false.

That said, do you have any evidence to present of a causal connection between human activity and "global warming"?