Two tankers attacked in mid east.

[WLJ]

[230RN]

They were removing it after the the tanker had been evacuated.   To get rid of what would be called "evidence".  

I understand that, but why do they have all these people standing around in the bow in what I would assume is the blast radius while tinkering with unexploded ordnance?  The only thing I could think of (later) was someone was explaining defusing and removal to the crew... but still...

I guess I'll let it go at that.

Terry

[Pb]

Assuming the Iranians placed the bombs, why is the USA responding militarily?

Not our port, not our ship(s) not our oil.

I’m not a fan of any nation in the Middle East and barely care about any of our so called allies in the region.

Personally, I have no way to really ascertain who did what to whom so I’m opposed to any military action against Iran over these incidents.

Yup.  Let the Japanese take care of it with their own military.

[RoadKingLarry]

What does Iran really gain if they are attacking merchant ships?

If you try to attribute them with western style, logical thinking you're going to have trouble answering that question.

My opinion is that they are trying to goad the US into military action either to attempt to gain support from Russia, Chna and the less that US friendly Euro-trash or they want a US attack to justify their "retaliation" when they nuke Tel Aviv.

[Hawkmoon]

What does Iran really gain if they are attacking merchant ships?

The U.S. has successfully curtailed Iran's exports of crude oil. Their shipments are down about 75%. This is part of their revenge.

What's the price of gasoline at the pumps doing these days?

[dogmush]

I understand that, but why do they have all these people standing around in the bow in what I would assume is the blast radius while tinkering with unexploded ordnance?  The only thing I could think of (later) was someone was explaining defusing and removal to the crew... but still...

I guess I'll let it go at that.

Terry

Inshallah if it goes boom.

[dogmush]

What does Iran really gain if they are attacking merchant ships?

Very rough analysis of their possible goals:

Main Goal:  Retaliation for sanctions and a bid for bargening power in any negotiations.  The US has been saying that the increased sanctioins and curtailing of Iran's oil exports will force them back to the table on their nuke program, and do so in a supplicant role.  Iran is not so subtly telling us that they can hurt our interests as far as oil as well, and are willing to do so.  If they come back to any negotiations it will be with a wink and nod towards "Treat us right, we can reach out and touch oil shipping in our region".

Secondary bonuses:

* Propaganda at home.  They poked the US and we're too scared to do anything about it.  See how powerful they are.

* The Iranian Republican Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) is NOT the Iranian Navy (IRN) They are relatively new, filled with folks picked more for their Revolutionary fervor then military prowess, and use untested equipment and doctrine.  This was an opportunity to do some real world testing on whether the ideas and equipment work.  If they used a torp or small anti-ship missile as well as mines then they got to test two weapons systems.  Plus they have real world Bomb Damage Assessments.

* Non-US countries now know their shipping is at risk due to (predominantly) US actions.  With some careful diplomacy that could be leveraged into our allies pressuring us to resolve this issue.

*Intra-mid east rivals (UAE, Oman, KSA) were shown that the IRGCN absolutely CAN strike targets both in foreign ports (last month) and in the Gulf of Oman, which is was considered to be outside their Area of Operations.


They got all of that done with an attack that has (semi) plausible deniability for diplomacy purposes, while everyone *knows* they did it.  It's actually a pretty slick op.

[Ben]

* The Iranian Republican Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) is NOT the Iranian Navy (IRN) They are relatively new, filled with folks picked more for their Revolutionary fervor then military prowess, and use untested equipment and doctrine.  This was an opportunity to do some real world testing on whether the ideas and equipment work.  If they used a torp or small anti-ship missile as well as mines then they got to test two weapons systems.  Plus they have real world Bomb Damage Assessments.

Thanks for that assessment. I was unaware of the above distinction. As Millcreek likes to say, I learned something new today. :)

[charby]

Very rough analysis of their possible goals:

Main Goal:  Retaliation for sanctions and a bid for bargening power in any negotiations.  The US has been saying that the increased sanctioins and curtailing of Iran's oil exports will force them back to the table on their nuke program, and do so in a supplicant role.  Iran is not so subtly telling us that they can hurt our interests as far as oil as well, and are willing to do so.  If they come back to any negotiations it will be with a wink and nod towards "Treat us right, we can reach out and touch oil shipping in our region".

Secondary bonuses:

* Propaganda at home.  They poked the US and we're too scared to do anything about it.  See how powerful they are.

* The Iranian Republican Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN) is NOT the Iranian Navy (IRN) They are relatively new, filled with folks picked more for their Revolutionary fervor then military prowess, and use untested equipment and doctrine.  This was an opportunity to do some real world testing on whether the ideas and equipment work.  If they used a torp or small anti-ship missile as well as mines then they got to test two weapons systems.  Plus they have real world Bomb Damage Assessments.

* Non-US countries now know their shipping is at risk due to (predominantly) US actions.  With some careful diplomacy that could be leveraged into our allies pressuring us to resolve this issue.

*Intra-mid east rivals (UAE, Oman, KSA) were shown that the IRGCN absolutely CAN strike targets both in foreign ports (last month) and in the Gulf of Oman, which is was considered to be outside their Area of Operations.


They got all of that done with an attack that has (semi) plausible deniability for diplomacy purposes, while everyone *knows* they did it.  It's actually a pretty slick op.

That makes sense and we haven't bombed anyone back to the stone age since WWII, no real perceived US threat in the modern era.

[RoadKingLarry]

That makes sense and we haven't bombed anyone back to the stone age since WWII, no real perceived US threat in the modern era.

Isn't Iran pretty much already in the stone age for most of the population?

[Andiron]

Isn't Iran pretty much already in the stone age for most of the population?

They were pretty cosmopolitan prior to the revolution.  Can't personally vouch for the rural part of the country, but what I've read and seen pics of suggest all was well til the Mullahs won.

[dogmush]

Isn't Iran pretty much already in the stone age for most of the population?

No. They're pretty modern in terms of electricity and creature comforts.