CA High Speed Rail Again

[Ben]

This boondoggle hasn't been in the news for a while. They apparently just signed a thirty year contract to build and maintain rails. THIRTY. YEARS.

For a bunch of "progressives", they sure don't seem to be aware of the recent speedy progression of technology. Thirty years is a ridiculously long time in that regard. By the time this contract ends, this bullet train will be a quaint antique.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-16/the-federal-standoff-on-california-bullet-train-is-getting-deeper

[K Frame]

WTF?

I thought that mess had been unceremoniously killed after sucking down vast amounts of resources for absolutely ZERO progress...

[Fly320s]

This boondoggle hasn't been in the news for a while. They apparently just signed a thirty year contract to build and maintain rails. THIRTY. YEARS.

For a bunch of "progressives", they sure don't seem to be aware of the recent speedy progression of technology. Thirty years is a ridiculously long time in that regard. By the time this contract ends, this bullet train will be a quaint antique.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-12-16/the-federal-standoff-on-california-bullet-train-is-getting-deeper

What sort of techological advance do you imagine will happen in the next thiry years that will make a high-speed train obsolete?

This looks short-sighted to me.  What happens in 30 years if the contract does not get renewed?  It will take another 5+ years before the first train starts operations, so that leaves 25 years of use.  I don't think the State can repay their costs with only 25 years of service.

[Ben]

What sort of techological advance do you imagine will happen in the next thiry years that will make a high-speed train obsolete?

With every major manufacturer wanting to go to electric cars now, that for one. This train was supposed to reduce traffic and pollution by getting people places faster and cleaner, but it is still a train to nowhere. It will take the 30 years just to get an LA to SFO track laid, and that's if they're efficient and avoid eminent domain lawsuits. Otherwise, everywhere they plan on it going now still requires alternative transportation to final destinations. Cars and planes will still be faster, as will autonomous buses and whatever other vehicles they come up with that can use the pre-exisiting infrastructure that cars use now.

We went from computers that didn't even have a monitor, to smart phones in a little over 30 years. I couldn't tell you what might pop up as other better alternatives by 2050. Might be large autonomous rotary aircraft, hovercraft, or Jetsons air cars. :)

[zahc]

What sort of techological advance do you imagine will happen in the next thiry years that will make a high-speed train obsolete?

This looks short-sighted to me.  What happens in 30 years if the contract does not get renewed?  It will take another 5+ years before the first train starts operations, so that leaves 25 years of use.  I don't think the State can repay their costs with only 25 years of service.

This. High speed rail is not even modern technology. The first Japanese shinkansen trains started running in 1964. The ones running now have obviously been running for decades. This is like Apollo-era technology. Just because we can't do it in America doesn't mean it's hard.

[MechAg94]

“If they approve that contract, it will put the Legislature in a position where it will have very little to say about what happens next, which is exactly why they are trying to do it,” said one key staffer.

[Fly320s]

In 30 years we might have autonomous cars and buses, but we won't have autonomous aircraft.  And that blimp is just ridiculous.  It is designed for heavy lift, not passenger transport.  It is cumbersome and slow.

One of the key features of high speed trains is the high speed part.  No self-driving car will ever do that.

So, even though California is jacked up in so many ways, a high-speed train could actually work there.  It won't, because California, but it could.

[Ben]

In 30 years we might have autonomous cars and buses, but we won't have autonomous aircraft.  And that blimp is just ridiculous.  It is designed for heavy lift, not passenger transport.  It is cumbersome and slow.

One of the key features of high speed trains is the high speed part.  No self-driving car will ever do that.

So, even though California is jacked up in so many ways, a high-speed train could actually work there.  It won't, because California, but it could.

The blimp was a joke.

High speed rail is still a boondoggle in CA. Who is going to use it? A few hundred people who might need to go between LA and SFO for work? If that section ever gets built. Right now it's just going to farm communities if this first test section ever gets done.

They would be better off skipping long distance high speed rail and creating more ways to take a train or whatever into big cities from all the outlying places people are moving to so they can afford a house. There's tons of people doing 2-4 hour commutes one way in LA type traffic. Shorter run mass transit with  multiple daily trips would do more to address what they want to address than creating a train for a relatively small portion of the populace that's going between LA and SFO, and maybe Sacramento.

[just Warren]

You don't spend the money to build the train.

You build the train to spend the money.

You need an excuse to cause money to flow to cronies and this is one way to do it.

It does not matter that there are less-costly options or that the tech might become obsolete. The goal is to shove money into the pockets of the connected.

[MechAg94]

You don't spend the money to build the train.

You build the train to spend the money.

You need an excuse to cause money to flow to cronies and this is one way to do it.

It does not matter that there are less-costly options or that the tech might become obsolete. The goal is to shove money into the pockets of the connected.

Exactly.  If the decision was simply to move the greatest number of passengers to the greatest number of destinations, buses are #1.  The cost is lower by far and they are flexible.  They can be moved around to different routes.  Most big cities put little effort into their bus system management.  It isn't like they will stop building roads once the trains are built. 

I always wonder if part of it is urban people want cheaper (someone else paying for it) ways to get from one urban area to another.

[Perd Hapley]

Exactly.  If the decision was simply to move the greatest number of passengers to the greatest number of destinations, buses are #1.  The cost is lower by far and they are flexible.  They can be moved around to different routes.  Most big cities put little effort into their bus system management.  It isn't like they will stop building roads once the trains are built. 

I always wonder if part of it is urban people want cheaper (someone else paying for it) ways to get from one urban area to another.

Buses are for poor, dirty people. Trains are for environmentally conscious Americans, with a tastefully European sensibility. Bless their hearts.

[K Frame]

"Trains are for environmentally conscious Americans, with a tastefully European sensibility. Bless their hearts."

And don't forget Greta. Greta loves trains. Even if she has a decided lack of manners in not showing her appreciation.

[MechAg94]

Buses are for poor, dirty people. Trains are for environmentally conscious Americans, with a tastefully European sensibility. Bless their hearts.

Just put train wheels on some buses and call it an "Almost High Speed Train". 

[K Frame]

Just put train wheels on some buses and call it an "Almost High Speed Train". 

That's called a trolly...

[griz]

We don't have to see breakthrough technology in the next few decades for this to be a bad idea.  Just the fact that you are committing billions of dollars a year for generations should ring alarm bells.  Given this quote from the article, why would you insist on throwing more money at a problem you've proven you have mismanaged, and committing to doing for 30 years?

Under the federal grants, California has to complete 119 miles of rail structures and install track in the Central Valley by 2022, but there is no requirement for electrical power, signals or a maintenance facility.

The work is far behind schedule, and only a third of all the bridges, viaducts and other structures have even started construction. The work was originally supposed to have been completed by 2017 at a cost of $6 billion. Now the cost is set at $10.6 billion.

[K Frame]

If anyone believes that the cost is "only" going to be $10.6 billion..., I have something to sell you...

[Ben]

Also, this all started in 1996, and AFIK, they still haven't finished the first 30 miles of rail.

[MechAg94]

That's called a trolly...

High Speed Trolly!!
They can do some cheap body work and add cross bars to the wheels so the steam locomotive guys can stare at them.  Maybe let them use diesel fuel then they can use the diesel to make smoke like the old navy ships.  Californians would love that!

[HankB]

You don't spend the money to build the train.

You build the train to spend the money.

You need an excuse to cause money to flow to cronies and this is one way to do it.

It does not matter that there are less-costly options or that the tech might become obsolete. The goal is to shove money into the pockets of the connected.

Exactly.

The money isn't literally flushed down the drain or heaped on a bonfire - it ends up in someone's pocket. Public works projects are the traditional way for politicians to convert public funds into private profits.

[MechAg94]

I would say to add that it converts back to political donations.  A few hundred million allocated over there gets a few million back in campaign donations and tips on real estate deals.

[WLJ]

Also, this all started in 1996, and AFIK, they still haven't finished the first 30 miles of rail.

The project is more about lining certain people's pockets than it is about actually laying down rail.

[Angel Eyes]

The project is more about lining certain people's pockets than it is about actually laying down rail.

... just like every other .gov project.

[230RN]

MechAg94 wisecracked,

They can do some cheap body work and add cross bars to the wheels so the steam locomotive guys can stare at them.

Now that's funny !

Choo-choo Terry, 230RN

[just Warren]

That's called a trolly...

Ding ding ding!

[Ben]

Ding ding ding!