Author Topic: Gold plummets as market sells off (Read 7228 times)

Headless Thompson Gunner · « **Reply #25 on:** February 27, 2007, 05:14:07 PM »

Quote from: Waitone on February 27, 2007, 04:11:20 PM

... Corrections deflate bubble and wring out speculation.

Heh, nobody has been speculating in gold recently... grin

K Frame · « **Reply #26 on:** February 27, 2007, 05:15:06 PM »

Correction.

Matthew Carberry · « **Reply #27 on:** February 27, 2007, 05:33:19 PM »

This doesn't AU-ger well.

Art Eatman · « **Reply #28 on:** February 28, 2007, 03:23:16 AM »

Yesterday's drop in gold was less than a jump, just a few days back. And it's already back up to within a few bucks of its high.

Big deal. Anybody who expects some sort of straight-line increase is foolish. There are always gonna be profit-takers who at some point will sell and push the price down some.

Same for other commodities.

Even if there's a dip of a month or three, the five- to ten-year trend is generally up.

Art

280plus · « **Reply #29 on:** February 28, 2007, 03:29:40 AM »

Yea I noticed futures were up pretty good this morning, I haven't seen it lately though.

280plus · « **Reply #30 on:** February 28, 2007, 03:34:44 AM »

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Market%20Analysis/503298/

K Frame · « **Reply #31 on:** February 28, 2007, 04:55:28 AM »

If I had the money I would have bought gold yesterday afternoon and sold today.

The Rabbi · « **Reply #32 on:** February 28, 2007, 05:05:51 AM »

Quote from: Mike Irwin on February 28, 2007, 03:55:28 AM

If I had the money I would have bought gold yesterday afternoon and sold today.

If I had a crystal ball I'd be a millionaire.

K Frame · « **Reply #33 on:** February 28, 2007, 06:29:37 AM »

No crystal ball needed to figure out that gold was going to rebound.

And buying precious metals is virtually always a safe bet.

Manedwolf · « **Reply #34 on:** February 28, 2007, 06:33:09 AM »

Quote from: Mike Irwin on February 28, 2007, 05:29:37 AM

No crystal ball needed to figure out that gold was going to rebound.

And buying precious metals is virtually always a safe bet.

At least they will never become worthless. And they're also immune to international currency fluctuations. The dollar could implode and be worth 1/5 of a Euro, and the gold/platinum/silver/etc would still be at its international level of value. It's a worldwide, universal commodity.

There's also something about it if you're holding it. For millenia, people have dreamed about, fought over, and fought for it. Holding a few gold coins or an ingot DOES sort of make you want more of it.... grin

K Frame · « **Reply #35 on:** February 28, 2007, 07:13:10 AM »

You know, I have a bunch of gold (coins, mostly). Not a lot, but enough to be interesting.

I don't really get any warm fuzzies from it. I like the look, especially in jewelry (more so in stuff that I'm wearing given my skin tones) but it just doesn't get me all ramped up.

The Rabbi · « **Reply #36 on:** February 28, 2007, 07:32:37 AM »

And if you had bought in 1979 you would still be underwater.

I'm thinking of melting my Krugerrands and fashioning a grill so it's more portable.

Matthew Carberry · « **Reply #37 on:** February 28, 2007, 07:34:04 AM »

Quote from: Manedwolf on February 28, 2007, 05:33:09 AM

There's also something about it if you're holding it. For millenia, people have dreamed about, fought over, and fought for it. Holding a few gold coins or an ingot DOES sort of make you want more of it.... grin

Look out boys, he's got goooooold fever!

Matthew Carberry · « **Reply #38 on:** February 28, 2007, 07:35:32 AM »

Quote from: The Rabbi on February 28, 2007, 06:32:37 AM

And if you had bought in 1979 you would still be underwater.

I'm thinking of melting my Krugerrands and fashioning a grill so it's more portable.

Just make them int chains and do a Mr. T. He had to be wearing 20-30 pounds of the stuff at the end.

Ooh, maybe a big torc, so folks will recognize your leadership.

K Frame · « **Reply #39 on:** February 28, 2007, 08:02:14 AM »

Quote from: The Rabbi on February 28, 2007, 06:32:37 AM

And if you had bought in 1979 you would still be underwater.

I'm thinking of melting my Krugerrands and fashioning a grill so it's more portable.

Yep. Exceptional market conditions at an exceptional point in history. But I think even you'll agree that it's far too simplistic to say that had you bought gold in 1979 (implying at any point in 1979) you would have lost money. Gold prices fluctuated up and down in 1979, just as they are doing these days. Unless you bought at the absolute peak, there was still moeny to be made if you didn't buy to hold long-term. I was in high school at the time, but as I remember, the amount of short-term holding and reselling of gold and silver was immense, driven mainly by people seeking short term profits.

That's part of the investing environment. Sometimes you make money, sometimes you lose money.

But the same kind of economic and market conditions that drove gold and silver to its peaks in 1979 don't exist today.

The Rabbi · « **Reply #40 on:** February 28, 2007, 08:04:57 AM »

Gold was over-valued in 1979 at $800/oz. That didnt stop people at the time from predicting $1000/oz. Much like they do today. The usual phenomenon is for investors to assume that past trends will hold true: if it went up yesterday it will go up again tomorrow. I liked one comment from Robert Kiyosaki:
You can lose money in anything.
And anyone who tells you you can't is either lying or foolish.

K Frame · « **Reply #41 on:** February 28, 2007, 08:23:38 AM »

Nothing ever stops anyone from predicting anything.

I remember in 1987 when the market dropped 22.7% in one day that there were people predicting that the selloff had only just begin, and it was the open door to 1929 all over again.

Those predictions didn't come true, either.

There's no way to find truth in prognostication.

Only guidance.

280plus · « **Reply #42 on:** February 28, 2007, 09:33:33 AM »

Not much of a rebound going on in the market as of 1430 EST today. Let's see how it finishes up.

Should I buy more UTX today or not, what do you guys think?

K Frame · « **Reply #43 on:** February 28, 2007, 10:00:13 AM »

No, not much of a rebound. But not another day of large drops, either.

It's a common event in the US markets -- a big drop followed by caution for several days or even weeks to see where things are going to shake out.

280plus · « **Reply #44 on:** February 28, 2007, 10:29:07 AM »

Done, I made the purchase, I'd been looking for a down day to buy in some more, just a modest amount. UTX is actually underperforming the market right now but if the market was going to go up, I'd rather see UTX not do so well.

I'm just a happy little trader. grin

The Rabbi · « **Reply #45 on:** February 28, 2007, 10:31:09 AM »

If there had been a rout today I would have been very surprised. I remember before Black Monday in 1987 there were several days of severe volitility before the big drop.
Virtually all asset classes except cash have been horribly over-valued. Risk premiums are non-existent. I don't remember a time when everything was this richly valued, and I have been doing this more or less for 30 years.

280plus · « **Reply #46 on:** February 28, 2007, 10:58:31 AM »

Wow, I just discovered that yahoo now offers what looks like real time updates when you;re in their research page. It's kinda cool. UTX is now slightly outperforming the Dow with above average volume but is still off 2% from yesterday's start. I think a lot of what we saw yesterday was a spiral downward caused by the automatic sell orders plus some overdue profit taking. I like that it's coming back modestly. I don't know Rabbi, I wonder if what you're seeing is a result of the increase in global trading. All the commodities have been going up because the rest of the world, especially China has been buying them up. Copper and steel have been soaring.

K Frame · « **Reply #47 on:** February 28, 2007, 11:34:00 AM »

If the Chinese economy does a Japan (essentially stagnates) the effect on the entire world economy is going to be a Ying-Yang kind of thing.

It's going to cause some serious economic repercussions, but it's also going to make a lot of durables prices plummet as the demand for metals eases.

And, it would very likely REALLY bring down the price of oil.

While that would be good short term, that could also set off spiraling inflation, rapid increases in interest rates to compensate...

Damn. I'm going back to Double Eagles in the mattress...

The Rabbi · « **Reply #48 on:** February 28, 2007, 12:46:40 PM »

Quote from: Mike Irwin on February 28, 2007, 10:34:00 AM

If the Chinese economy does a Japan (essentially stagnates) the effect on the entire world economy is going to be a Ying-Yang kind of thing.

It's going to cause some serious economic repercussions, but it's also going to make a lot of durables prices plummet as the demand for metals eases.

And, it would very likely REALLY bring down the price of oil.

While that would be good short term, that could also set off spiraling inflation, rapid increases in interest rates to compensate...

Damn. I'm going back to Double Eagles in the mattress...

Check copper prices for the last 6 months. They have been tanking badly.
If China cools (actually when is more like it) you will see a big slowdown. There wont be inflation but deflation as companies lay off workers and downsize operations. I don't predict catastrophe but we are due for some serious recession with much lower prices for assets all across the board.
Asset prices have been high in part because of too many dollars sloshing around the world looking for yield. This is a hangover from the Fed's attempt to forestall any Y2K problems and post 9/11 when they goosed the money supply.

Telperion · « **Reply #49 on:** February 28, 2007, 12:48:01 PM »

China is not going to stagnate ... their economy is growing at 10%. Most countries can only dream of growing at half that. Even if they did slow to 5%, that would still translate to lot of demand.

And how would falling commodity and durables prices cause inflation?

News:

Author Topic: Gold plummets as market sells off (Read 7228 times)