Author Topic: Gold plummets as market sells off  (Read 7229 times)

280plus

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #50 on: February 28, 2007, 01:07:12 PM »
hah, UTX closed only $0.18  above yesterday's. I don't usually pray for stocks to not do well but today was an exception. Woo hoooo!!  cheesy
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K Frame

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #51 on: February 28, 2007, 01:26:59 PM »
"And how would falling commodity and durables prices cause inflation?"

As consumer goods become less expensive (either realistically or perceptionally) it can lead to increased demand. Increased demand for goods can have a marked effect on inflation, normally it's a short term effect, but it can be enough to cause a bump in interest rates to make sure that it's a controlled effect.

Where I would expect concerns to rise about inflation is if gasoline prices really start to tank. With less worries about short term gasoline prices, people will be more willing to consider spending on other things. I know when gas prices started to jump I really cut back on my other spending. Then I got a job 2 miles from the house and now a tank of gas lasts a month. Smiley

As for copper prices, tanking badly is, I think, something of a relative term when you consider that they're still well above what they were when the latest rise cycle started in 2003. That's more of a reaction to the slowdown in the new housing market in the US than anything.


"China is not going to stagnate... their economy is growing at 10%."

Nothing is forever. I remember when people said the same thing about Japan. Now Japan is in its second decade of growth stagnation.

An economy that's super heating can be a dangerous thing.
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The Rabbi

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #52 on: February 28, 2007, 01:35:59 PM »
Mike, you need to review basic econ in a serious way.
Inflation by definition occurs with rising prices.  There is no way for prices to be falling AND have inflation.  That is a contradiction in terms.
Prices rise or fall to meet demand.  Inflation stems from either too much demand ("demand pull" or "too many dollars chasing too few goods") or from price hikes in some basic commodity, like oil ("cost push").
We have had very low inflation here for the last decade or so because of a number of factors.  The technology revolution and the increased productivity associated is a major reason.  Outsourcing, efficiences,etc have all contributed.  But I strongly suspect there has been over-investment in production facilities all over the world, esp China and when things slow down we are in for a prolonged down period.
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Telperion

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #53 on: February 28, 2007, 02:29:14 PM »
As consumer goods become less expensive (either realistically or perceptionally) it can lead to increased demand. Increased demand for goods can have a marked effect on inflation, normally it's a short term effect, but it can be enough to cause a bump in interest rates to make sure that it's a controlled effect.

If a slowing economy causes lower prices for goods, it is because demand contracted.  If demand then expands, prices will be bid up.  What you are describing is simple supply and demand, not inflation.  Inflation is the result of the money supply growing faster than the economy can absorb it via the production of new goods and services.

Quote
Where I would expect concerns to rise about inflation is if gasoline prices really start to tank. With less worries about short term gasoline prices, people will be more willing to consider spending on other things. I know when gas prices started to jump I really cut back on my other spending. Then I got a job 2 miles from the house and now a tank of gas lasts a month. Smiley

If lower gasoline prices allow people to spend and invest elsewhere, that is what most people would call economic growth.

BozemanMT

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #54 on: February 28, 2007, 02:47:22 PM »
Rabbi, at least you are watching things, some of the comments in this thread don't even make sense.
The market can go up long beyond rationality.
The yield curve is inverted and has been for some time.
Housing is in a typical bubble pattern, house prices don't move like stocks, they are sticky, you watch this year though.
Big time credit contraction coming (aka deflation), look at all the subprime lenders.
There are HUGE amounts of derivatives out there, there is always a winner and a loser to a derivatives contract, at some point, all these leveraged plays and someone won't be able to make good.  Then it will crash.

Cash is king right now, there is only risk, no return in the market.
My guess is that yesterdays' is only a beginning.

Stay tuned
Brian
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The Rabbi

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #55 on: February 28, 2007, 03:16:27 PM »
Bozeman,
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent." -Keynes.

"Generally something that can't go on forever, won't." -M. Friedman.

I have never seen such risk taken for so little gain.  Money is just bursting out there and people are taking crazy chances.  This is totally unsustainable.  In the tech-wreck the yield curve was inverted for a long time too.  Then people blamed the gov't paying down long term debt (because "its different this time.").  Lots can happen and it is very complex, but I think the trend will be down for the next 18 months.  Unfortunately that will play into the Dems' hands for 2008.
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280plus

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #56 on: February 28, 2007, 03:32:41 PM »
I can believe slowing, but a downward trend for 18 months? I can't buy it.  Either way, all my stuff pays and then reinvests dividends. So really it wouldn't bother me a bit to see it go down for a while.
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Art Eatman

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #57 on: February 28, 2007, 03:50:51 PM »
The word is now out about yesterday's Big Hoo Hah!

It seems that the NYSE had a scare due to bad news from China.  The Chinese stock market had a wave of selling, with a drop of nearly 10%.  

Why did this happen, you ask?  Well, Grasshopper, the rumor spread that the Chinese government was going to institute a capital gains tax.  People were therefore selling ahead of the imposition of such a tax.

This morning, the Chinese government said that the rumor was false.

(Courtesy of Chris Gaffney, VP, EverBank.)

And so stocks started on their way back up.

For a while, anyway. Smiley

Art
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280plus

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #58 on: February 28, 2007, 03:54:35 PM »
This little stock didn't do too bad today...

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=t
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BozemanMT

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #59 on: February 28, 2007, 05:13:24 PM »
Bozeman,
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent." -Keynes.

"Generally something that can't go on forever, won't." -M. Friedman.

I have never seen such risk taken for so little gain.  Money is just bursting out there and people are taking crazy chances.  This is totally unsustainable.  In the tech-wreck the yield curve was inverted for a long time too.  Then people blamed the gov't paying down long term debt (because "its different this time.").  Lots can happen and it is very complex, but I think the trend will be down for the next 18 months.  Unfortunately that will play into the Dems' hands for 2008.

completely agree
And in case you were wondering, I agreed with you earlier too.  undecided
It's going down longer than that, housing prices take a LONG time to work out and this is a HUGE bubble.
When they say "it's different this time", it's time to get out
It's not different, it never is.
Brian
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The Rabbi

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Re: Gold plummets as market sells off
« Reply #60 on: February 28, 2007, 05:21:53 PM »
Bozeman,
"Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent." -Keynes.

"Generally something that can't go on forever, won't." -M. Friedman.

I have never seen such risk taken for so little gain.  Money is just bursting out there and people are taking crazy chances.  This is totally unsustainable.  In the tech-wreck the yield curve was inverted for a long time too.  Then people blamed the gov't paying down long term debt (because "its different this time.").  Lots can happen and it is very complex, but I think the trend will be down for the next 18 months.  Unfortunately that will play into the Dems' hands for 2008.

completely agree
And in case you were wondering, I agreed with you earlier too.  undecided
It's going down longer than that, housing prices take a LONG time to work out and this is a HUGE bubble.
When they say "it's different this time", it's time to get out
It's not different, it never is.

I wasn't disagreeing.  Yours was the best post I've seen in months.
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