China quarantines an entire city

[Ron]

No way to know what the heck is going on over there in China.

Normally I'd say, assume the worst, but all things considered that may actually cause despair.

The truth is probably something not even being discussed.

Carry on then, the future has always been uncertain, we're all just a little more aware of that reality.

[K Frame]

Get ready for a rough day on the markets.

Apparently Corona cases spiked in Italy (and elsewhere), and that tanked European markets, and that's having a shakedown effect on US markets. The major markets futures are all down about 2.5% at the moment. For the Dow that implies an opening loss of about 750 points.

Gold is surging and WTI crude is down about $2 a barrel.

[Ben]

Get ready for a rough day on the markets.

Apparently Corona cases spiked in Italy (and elsewhere), and that tanked European markets, and that's having a shakedown effect on US markets. The major markets futures are all down about 2.5% at the moment. For the Dow that implies an opening loss of about 750 points.

Gold is surging and WTI crude is down about $2 a barrel.

Bound to happen. I just saw -850, so I wouldn't be surprised if we hit -1000 or more today. Between Goldman Sachs calling for the possibility of non-linear movement due to impacted trade and imports, and Peter Navarro yesterday saying that, related to the virus, we have dangerously over-relied on imports and offshore manufacturing, I wouldn't be surprised if we see 2009 sized drops coming.

[cordex]

Infections per day are supposedly way, way down in China (if you can believe the Chinese government) but infections outside of the China are up quite a bit as a percentage.  Even so, we're still at just over 2k confirmed cases outside of China and almost all of those in Asia which - given that we're about a month in doesn't strike me as tikiwiki just yet.

[charby]

Infections per day are supposedly way, way down in China (if you can believe the Chinese government) but infections outside of the China are up quite a bit as a percentage.  Even so, we're still at just over 2k confirmed cases outside of China and almost all of those in Asia which - given that we're about a month in doesn't strike me as tikiwiki just yet.

I think those infected outside of China just got a lot higher. Cities quarantined in Italy.

[Ben]

I think those infected outside of China just got a lot higher. Cities quarantined in Italy.

Where I begin to get worried is the numbers in Italy, India, and South Korea. These are countries that I would generally trust regarding sharing information.

[brimic]

I'm buying a shitton of out of the money puts on the S&P today with a may expiration. I might die, but I'll die filthy rich. 

[cordex]

I think those infected outside of China just got a lot higher. Cities quarantined in Italy.

Last numbers I saw were 219 cases and 5 fatalities in Italy.  South Korea has 833 confirmed cases with 8 fatalities ... that's a bigger country to watch in my opinion.

As far as cities being quarantined ... they're closing schools, businesses, and restaurants and requesting residents stay inside.  Big steps, but not what I'd call quarantining cities.

[makattak]

Last numbers I saw were 219 cases and 5 fatalities in Italy.  South Korea has 833 confirmed cases with 8 fatalities ... that's a bigger country to watch in my opinion.

As far as cities being quarantined ... they're closing schools, businesses, and restaurants and requesting residents stay inside.  Big steps, but not what I'd call quarantining cities.

So far, Italy is tracking at around that previously reported 2.1ish% (actually almost 2.3%, but I'll give leeway for the smaller sample size) death rate. That should be scary.

South Korea is just under 1%, so far. As you said, it will be one to watch.

[cordex]

So far, Italy is tracking at around that previously reported 2.1ish% (actually almost 2.3%, but I'll give leeway for the smaller sample size) death rate. That should be scary.

It is, but also isn't.  I was only able to find information on three of the five Italy deaths, but the three I found ranged in age from 75 to 78 and one of those was a cancer patient.  Unsurprisingly and just as with diseases like the flu, older people and people with compromised immune systems are much more likely to die.  That's also an age range where people tend to still be pretty active and go out in public and thus have a higher risk of exposure.

[Ben]

I'd like to see some data with the infection and death numbers broken down by age. The one reason I would begin to worry earlier than some of you is age. While the number is arbitrary, I have seen "60" as the cutoff where death goes way up - moreso than the regular flu, and gee, I just turned 60. They are using "under 40" for "likely don't need to worry much".

Without bragging, I think I'm in much better shape than the average 60 year old, and maybe the average 40 year old, but there might be factors other than health that come into play with age.

[brimic]

So far, Italy is tracking at around that previously reported 2.1ish% (actually almost 2.3%, but I'll give leeway for the smaller sample size) death rate. That should be scary.

South Korea is just under 1%, so far. As you said, it will be one to watch.

Figure 15% need intensive care and 5% need a ventilator for an extended period of time, of which 1/4 of them don't make it.... so it'll end up around 2%.
Those numbers are alarming, but not world ending. What I do worry about is I keep hearing reports of people who were 'recovered' but later tested positive for the virus, more reports of re-infection being far more severe than initial infection due to a overpowered immune response.

[Ben]

DOW opens down 950.

[TommyGunn]

Buy stocks now!!! Buy buy buy buy BUY!!!!!!!!!!!

The markets WILL rebound.  

[K Frame]

Don't just stand there!

PANIC AND DO SOMETHING!

[Ben]

In this case, I think I'll be waiting till >-2000 before I dip my toes back into the stock index. I might buy some Wellesley earlier.

[Fly320s]

Don't just stand there!

PANIC AND DO SOMETHING!

Exactly. 

[makattak]

I'd like to see some data with the infection and death numbers broken down by age. The one reason I would begin to worry earlier than some of you is age. While the number is arbitrary, I have seen "60" as the cutoff where death goes way up - moreso than the regular flu, and gee, I just turned 60. They are using "under 40" for "likely don't need to worry much".

Without bragging, I think I'm in much better shape than the average 60 year old, and maybe the average 40 year old, but there might be factors other than health that come into play with age.

Calling on my memory for what I know of the Spanish Flu, the unique characteristic that made it an especially bad pandemic was that it tended to kill young and otherwise healthy people.

So far, this virus seems to be acting like most diseases and killing off the otherwise weak and unhealthy....


Which, again, makes my wild-tinfoil hat conspiracy theory that this was a "Logan's Run" or "Thanos" style effort by the Chinese at population control more likely.... Or, you know, it's just a normal disease.

[K Frame]

Don't forget the massive amount of white privilege that goes along with it because the vast majority of infections and deaths have been in people of color...

[MillCreek]

In my Vanguard index, T. Rowe Price index, and Wellesley funds in my IRA, I rest assured that they are re-balanced every business day and they can worry about buying more stocks when the market is down.  It will be interesting to see how many thousands of dollars the IRA will go down today.

[K Frame]

Wise words from CNBC...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/avoid-this-investing-mistake-as-coronavirus-fears-grip-the-markets.html


Back when the great recession hit I was on a couple of other sites (most now gone) and you could tell people were stating to panic... Despite what some people were telling them (me included), the eventually couldn't take it any more and sold on the downhill side of the equation, some of them lost a TON of money.

Couple of years later the markets were humming along nice again, we were well on our way toward recovering our losses, and most of us who saw it for what it was, one hell of a buying opportunity, were talking about the gains we were making when one very bitter soul chimed in bitching about how he had lost so much and would never see it again.

He was one of the people who had panicked and sold...

Then he admitted that he didn't bank the money he had pulled out... he went and spent it on stupid *expletive deleted*it.

And I think he truly expected us to pity him because he was "manipulated into taking that course of action" or some other stupid whiny reason that wasn't a reason at all. He got kind of frosted that he wasn't getting a lot of support, and I think he went full snit and went away forever when someone searched and reposted the threads with all the advice he had gotten...

[MechAg94]

Wise words from CNBC...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/avoid-this-investing-mistake-as-coronavirus-fears-grip-the-markets.html


Back when the great recession hit I was on a couple of other sites (most now gone) and you could tell people were stating to panic... Despite what some people were telling them (me included), the eventually couldn't take it any more and sold on the downhill side of the equation, some of them lost a TON of money.

Couple of years later the markets were humming along nice again, we were well on our way toward recovering our losses, and most of us who saw it for what it was, one hell of a buying opportunity, were talking about the gains we were making when one very bitter soul chimed in bitching about how he had lost so much and would never see it again.

He was one of the people who had panicked and sold...

Then he admitted that he didn't bank the money he had pulled out... he went and spent it on stupid *expletive deleted*it.

And I think he truly expected us to pity him because he was "manipulated into taking that course of action" or some other stupid whiny reason that wasn't a reason at all. He got kind of frosted that he wasn't getting a lot of support, and I think he went full snit and went away forever when someone searched and reposted the threads with all the advice he had gotten...

I am sure the advice was "buy high, sell low" right?   

[dogmush]

That's actually my take away.  I might be dumping a bunch of cash into my retirement mutual funds soon.

Or waiting till Tesla dips when the delay of the china factory opening is official and buy some of that.

[Ben]

In my Vanguard index, T. Rowe Price index, and Wellesley funds in my IRA,

I'm right now debating how to handle Wellesley. I was listening to FoxBusiness this morning, and they made a good case for cashing out bonds to take the profits. Wellesley is mostly bonds, so now I'm kinda waffling on, should I sell some and convert to total stock market index, buy some more of it, or do nothing and let the managers do their thing.

Again, if things take more than a 2000 point drop, I'm buying some more of each. Otherwise, being fully in retirement, I don't want to gamble one way or the other and am more prone to letting things ride and not worrying about my cash reserves doing nothing.

[K Frame]

More wise words from CNBC...

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/past-disease-outbreaks-show-investors-shoud-ignore-the-noise-of-coronavirus.html


Well, maybe not such wise words when they misspell the link... shoud instead of should....