COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[Ben]

their TSP gains and considering how Trump was affecting their bottom line in the long run.  Those gains are gone, some even more so.

But those are short term gains. To judge where a TSP or 401K is, you would need to look at some ten year average starting at Trump -1 year and Trump +9 years. My TSP is as of this morning, still up ~$60K from just before Trump got in. I'm at a retirement ratio of only 50% stocks, so certainly someone who is 90% stocks might be negative their pre-Trump balance now. However ten years from now, they will have recovered those losses plus made more gains.

[Jamisjockey]

But those are short term gains. To judge where a TSP or 401K is, you would need to look at some ten year average starting at Trump -1 year and Trump +9 years. My TSP is as of this morning, still up ~$60K from just before Trump got in. I'm at a retirement ratio of only 50% stocks, so certainly someone who is 90% stocks might be negative their pre-Trump balance now. However ten years from now, they will have recovered those losses plus made more gains.

Most people think short term, but I know quite a few who've made 5 digit gains in the last year or two under Trump.

The media is going to use this as a stick to beat Trump with. 

[brimic]

Are people blaming Trump for the market being down?

I know the Democrats will try to, but I'm not seeing people attacking Trump for the issue.

It would be like blaming President Bush for the market drops after 9/11. This is more likely to cause people to rally to Trump, than against him, I would think.

Yes, they are blaming him. He made a few media statements this week about how the markets are fine and the virus is contained. That might have been his ‘read my lips’ moment.

Bernie is going to be a disaster.

[Jamisjockey]

Yes, they are blaming him. He made a few media statements this week about how the markets are fine and the virus is contained. That might have been his ‘read my lips’ moment.

Bernie is going to be a disaster.

Exactly. 

[Ben]

Yes, they are blaming him. He made a few media statements this week about how the markets are fine and the virus is contained. That might have been his ‘read my lips’ moment.

Bernie is going to be a disaster.

I would submit that the markets ARE fine. Every once in a while, you need to purge emotional investors. While it hurts a little bit to look at my retirement accounts today, it's no worse than any other corrections over the last few decades, where I either did nothing, or did the opposite of the panicking people. Five or so years later,  I was better off than I was during the correction. Anyone who stays the course now will also be fine.

I do expect this correction to potentially stabilize/reverse in the short term, then dip again when all the multinationals post their quarterly losses due to supply chain issues related to the beer virus panic.

[Jamisjockey]

I would submit that the markets ARE fine. Every once in a while, you need to purge emotional investors. While it hurts a little bit to look at my retirement accounts today, it's no worse than any other corrections over the last few decades, where I either did nothing, or did the opposite of the panicking people. Five or so years later,  I was better off than I was during the correction. Anyone who stays the course now will also be fine.

I do expect this correction to potentially stabilize/reverse in the short term, then dip again when all the multinationals post their quarterly losses due to supply chain issues related to the beer virus panic.

I don't think they're done coming down.  My prediction is we see an exponential rise in positives in the next 7 days, and at least another couple percentage loss off the markets in the same time frame.

[Ben]

I don't think they're done coming down.  My prediction is we see an exponential rise in positives in the next 7 days, and at least another couple percentage loss off the markets in the same time frame.

I should clarify - I also think they are still coming down, and am including first quarter reporting in that  guess  since March is a day away. so we might see drops through next month. I'm thinking a rise after that and then another dip when the 2nd Quarter numbers come in for the multinationals, so Summer might get ugly again.

[MillCreek]

If they remove barriers to vaccine testing and production, the Feds would have to indemnify the vaccine manufacturers or bring it under the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program.  Otherwise, the manufactures are going to be sued up the wazoo when any side effects or complications of the vaccine occur.

[MechAg94]

Yes, they are blaming him. He made a few media statements this week about how the markets are fine and the virus is contained. That might have been his ‘read my lips’ moment.

Bernie is going to be a disaster.

Everyone exaggerates political talk.  Trump would have a "read my lips" moment if he suddenly decided he didn't want to build a wall and signed an amnesty bill.  Or went back on another key 2016 promise.  Something like this doesn't rise to that level.

That won't stop Democrats from trying to frame it that way, but they do that on a daily basis.  

[MechAg94]

If they remove barriers to vaccine testing and production, the Feds would have to indemnify the vaccine manufacturers or bring it under the National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program.  Otherwise, the manufactures are going to be sued up the wazoo when any side effects or complications of the vaccine occur.

If memory serves, that was what I heard recommended back in the 90's.  I can't remember what was done, but it wasn't that.  The number of vaccine makers dropped off quite a bit.

[K Frame]

I don't think they're done coming down.  My prediction is we see an exponential rise in positives in the next 7 days, and at least another couple percentage loss off the markets in the same time frame.

We're not.

I'm thinking we'll see another 5 to 10% loss in the overall market indexes over the next 2 or so weeks... IF the virus maintains its current course. If it increases the speed of spread or becomes something more lethal, all bets are off.

But, this is a correction that the market really did need. This isn't a bad thing at all. It's a "letting the air out of the bubble for reasons OTHER than investors panicking that the bubble has gotten too big and unstable."

[Jamisjockey]

Thread title changed to more accurately describe the discussion taking place.

[makattak]

Among things to be thankful for:

1) This is happening NOW, rather than October, where panicky people can better influence the election.
2) This is highlighting some dangers of "global supply chains" at the same time that we have an administration trying to repatriate a lot of business/manufacturing
3) Our biggest geo-political foe is likely to bear the brunt of #2 to the benefit of the American worker.


Now, #3 may cause some other issues as China might start getting frisky when its people start getting angry at their government, but unless we are (some of our leaders are) willing to accept Chinese hegemony in the world, that was going to happen at some point.

[Ben]

2) This is highlighting some dangers of "global supply chains" at the same time that we have an administration trying to repatriate a lot of business/manufacturing

I'm kind of hoping that something good that will come of this is the US waking up to where our stuff comes from. Repatriating the production of stuff, even if it means paying 10% more, would not be a bad thing.

We don't need to stop international trade, but it would certainly be good to look at some targeted goods and services that would be better produced here (even if they are also produced elsewhere), and maybe give the producers some incentives to do it.

[makattak]

I'm kind of hoping that something good that will come of this is the US waking up to where our stuff comes from. Repatriating the production of stuff, even if it means paying 10% more, would not be a bad thing.

We don't need to stop international trade, but it would certainly be good to look at some targeted goods and services that would be better produced here (even if they are also produced elsewhere), and maybe give the producers some incentives to do it.

Having at least a skeletal infrastructure for necessary good production in our country ought to be the minimum we would accept. At least it would give us a better chance of being able to scale up, should something disruptive happen. This situation is not the worst that could happen, and we ought to use it as a wake-up call.

I don't have a lot of faith in human nature's ability to learn and apply lessons. I fear that after this is over we'll try to go back to exactly how it used to be until something worse comes along.

[Ron]

N/M

[Nick1911]

Having at least a skeletal infrastructure for necessary good production in our country ought to be the minimum we would accept. At least it would give us a better chance of being able to scale up, should something disruptive happen. This situation is not the worst that could happen, and we ought to use it as a wake-up call.

I don't have a lot of faith in human nature's ability to learn and apply lessons. I fear that after this is over we'll try to go back to exactly how it used to be until something worse comes along.

It's a capitalist market.  Unless government policy makes it economically unfavorable, companies will outsource operations to lower cost areas.  Any company that doesn't do this risks being buried by competitors who do.

[DittoHead]

Unless government policy makes it economically unfavorable, companies will outsource operations to lower cost areas.

look at some targeted goods and services that would be better produced here (even if they are also produced elsewhere), and maybe give the producers some incentives to do it.

I think people are very gung-ho for these kind of things when it's their guy in charge, but that doesn't last forever.
Things can get swampy real quick - Solyndra anyone?

[brimic]

We're not.

I'm thinking we'll see another 5 to 10% loss in the overall market indexes over the next 2 or so weeks... IF the virus maintains its current course. If it increases the speed of spread or becomes something more lethal, all bets are off.

But, this is a correction that the market really did need. This isn't a bad thing at all. It's a "letting the air out of the bubble for reasons OTHER than investors panicking that the bubble has gotten too big and unstable."

I believe you are on the best case scenario of the spectrum, and I’m on the worst case scenario end of it... people should be ready for something somewhere in between.

[dogmush]

But those are short term gains. To judge where a TSP or 401K is, you would need to look at some ten year average starting at Trump -1 year and Trump +9 years. My TSP is as of this morning, still up ~$60K from just before Trump got in. I'm at a retirement ratio of only 50% stocks, so certainly someone who is 90% stocks might be negative their pre-Trump balance now. However ten years from now, they will have recovered those losses plus made more gains.

Most people think short term, but I know quite a few who've made 5 digit gains in the last year or two under Trump.

The media is going to use this as a stick to beat Trump with.

Ben beat me to it, but those gains are absolutely NOT gone.  Most of my TSP  is in the L2040 fund, which was $24.69 a share on 21 Jan 2016, and is $36.26 a share yesterday.  Those .gov employees are still, after the coronavirus drop, way better off with Trump.

I think the market's got a little more to fall, but will be pretty well recovered by Oct, so Trump can still use it as a campaign item.

[Ben]

Couple of other things that I heard on Fox Business while walking the dog this morning:

1) On the markets, an interesting conversation on how algorithms are affecting things right now. They weren't as prevalent back in 2008, but now may be nudging some "sell" decisions, perhaps significantly so.

2) Pet medications. I wasn't even thinking about this. They were clear that there is no shortage now and there may not be one, but these meds/med components are offshored just like human meds. Coincidentally, I had it marked on my calendar to order heartworm and flea tabs from the vet for Steve, because I just ran out this month.

[bedlamite]

Drive through testing seems like a good idea as opposed to an hour in a crowded waiting room. Apparently results are available in two days.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/south-korea-drive-through-coronavirus-test-facilities-12477046

[Ben]

the L2040 fund,

L2040? Damn young kid whippersnappers with a long time horizon! 

[K Frame]

"I believe you are on the best case scenario of the spectrum, and I’m on the worst case scenario end of it... people should be ready for something somewhere in between."

OK, then I'll sit at my desk and white knuckle it while drinking heavily while you run around in circles flapping your arms and screeching about how the sky is falling.

Between the two of us we should have it covered. 

[K Frame]

I need to get Seren's flea/tick meds ordered.

I take her off of them in the winter. I keep her on heartworm all year long.