COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[Hawkmoon]

Has anyone else heard the conjecture that herd immunity for Chinavirus may be as low as 10%?

What I've been reading is that "herd immunity" probably doesn't work at all for CV-19.

[Jim147]

I've read the same that herd immunity is out of reach.

On the numbers side it came out last week and again today that some states are adding positive case and antibody positives to the total current cases.

[zxcvbob]

I disagree. The concern is the aggregate number(s). If any of the numbers adding up to the aggregate are bunkum, IMHO that invalidates the whole package.

That depends on how significant the bullshit numbers are with respect to the totals.  You discount the aggregate based on the numbers you don't trust.  You don't throw out all the data unless all the data is bad.

[TommyGunn]

Has anyone else heard the conjecture that herd immunity for Chinavirus may be as low as 10%?

What I've heard is herd immunity for covid19  may either not exist,  or be short-lived if it does  .......   

[Ben]

If there is no significant herd immunity due to mutations or whatever, then really, I don't see how any lockdowns will do more than simply limit the numbers of sick over any given period. You can lock everyone down everywhere in the country for a year, and at some point there will be a new patient zero that has been carrying some mutation of the virus, or someone coming in from abroad (including illegally) and an encounter with some very susceptible person, and we start all over again.

Also if we create no vaccines that do any better than the current runs of flu vaccines, then it seems we continue to be in the same boat. This may be here to stay, same as the common cold, except with more serious consequences for the at-risk population. To be a little science-fictiony or Darwinist, this may be a global event that kills off certain gene pools.

[Perd Hapley]

“The prevalence of immunity to the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 may be much higher than previous research suggests according to an intriguing new study by researchers associated with Karolinska Institute in Sweden,” Reason magazine reported. “In addition, a new German study by researchers associated with the University Hospital Tübingen in Germany reports that people who have been previously infected with versions of the coronavirus that cause the common cold also have some immunity to the COVID-19 virus. If these reports stand up to further scrutiny, it would be very good news because they suggest that the pandemic could be over sooner and ultimately be less lethal than feared.”

https://www.dailywire.com/news/herd-immunity-to-covid-19-may-be-closer-than-we-think-new-studies-say

[Hawkmoon]

On the numbers side it came out last week and again today that some states are adding positive case and antibody positives to the total current cases.

I have seen those reports, too. I've been trying for at least a week to find out if my state is one of those whose numbers include antibody tests, and "they ain't talkin'." Which doesn't surprise me. Our governor puts out a briefing every day that includes the current numbers. I've been printing out the summary sheet every day, logging the numbers in a spreadsheet, and filing the printouts in a looseleaf binder. Aside from the fact that as of May 3 there was an unexplained shift, with the result that from May 3 forward the number for total cases they report is off from what their own numbers add up to by 25, and the number of deaths they report is off from what their numbers add up to by 59. And they don't report any number for recoveries ... and multiple inquiries to my state senator and my state representative as to why we are not being given numbers on recoveries have been met with silence.

[TommyGunn]

Reference Ben's  post  a couple above.^^^^

The Spanish Flu virus has been around for a century.  It isn't as deadly because viruses tend to mutate into less deadly versions.   There is some anecdotal evidence this is already happening in Italy.

In the last week there have been very incouraging reports of vaccines that look tremendously promising.   Last Friday on Tucker Carlson Dr. Siegel  spoke of one,  and he returned this week on TC  to tout another.   Just 10  minutes ago at the top of hour radio news another report on a promising vaccine.

[Ron]

Even if someone is operating in good faith it can be difficult to determine actual causes of death.  Death from COVID and death with COVID are two different things.

That said, you regularly harp on the "FAKE NUMBERS!" side of things.  Some people are certainly manipulating numbers for political gain, but I'm not convinced it is as common as you pretend.  Charby was likewise worried about the sneaky Republicans manipulating testing to hide COVID19 infections in Iowa.  Just as his concerns turned out to be partisan fearmongering, so too your constant claims that because some numbers aren't accurate all numbers are junk therefore we must ignore them all is little more than a conspiracy theory.

I have no doubt that Charby's medical examiner and dogmush's hospital contacts are seeing a real increase in death associated with COVID19.  Their areas have not yet been hit very hard or at all.  When COVID19 reaches those areas they will see similar increased death rates as other areas - especially among elderly and those with serious preexisting health conditions, but also somewhat randomly among otherwise pretty healthy young people.  People going through this for the first time are worried because they're only seeing now what many parts of the country saw months ago.  The data are pretty consistent when you adjust for the infection start, isolation efforts, and testing.

Deaths associated with COVID tend to spike over the course of something like two to two and a half months followed by a taper down in a long tail.  Lockdowns and mask requirements can stretch this out but the ultimate end result is the about the same because at some point the lockdown lifts and COVID has infection reservoirs all over the world and will come back in.

I know you've recognized several times that COVID kills people.  If your argument is that the death rate is low enough, or the age of the people killed is high enough that we shouldn't shut down or shouldn't require masks, or whatever ... fine, make that point.  That doesn't mean that the numbers are complete bunk.  What they show is pretty consistent and - like any statistic - only as alarmist as the person reporting them.

The bottom line is the reporting of cases and deaths is pretty arbitrary at every step.

If they wanted they could "arbitrarily" tighten up the standards for coding covid-1984 cases and deaths and it would look like nothing more than a terrible flu year.

At this point the public has zero good information to make actual good decisions because its all lies top to bottom.

[RoadKingLarry]

The mask vs no mask debate is heating up locally.  Tulsa has issued a mask ordinance that goes into effect Monday. It's interesting to me to see where people are coming down on the sides of the issue.
It looks to me that the socialist/liberal/anti-conservative folks, the same bunch that.fall out for BLM and antifa riots seem to be coming down on the pro-mask side and they employ the typical insults and name calling to advance their position.

[Ron]

The adoration of Fauci the Lying Weasel is starting to get old also.

He's lied about masks, airborn transmission and the malaria drugs safety.

If this whole debacle doesn't wake you up to the manipulation, lies and psyops the government perpetrates on the country then nothing will wake you up. The public willingly believe lies because it's easier.

The officials actually get on TV  and write articles telling us they are lying to us and everyone still goes along with the charade.

All the definitions (death,cases,infection ...) are adopted to conform to a narrative and nudge public opinion.

Stop believing these people have your best interests at heart.

Socialists and communists always commit their crimes in the name of the greater good.

If they are lying to you they are not good guys, regardless of their political affiliations.

 

[Pb]

In the last week there have been very incouraging reports of vaccines that look tremendously promising.   Last Friday on Tucker Carlson Dr. Siegel  spoke of one,  and he returned this week on TC  to tout another.   Just 10  minutes ago at the top of hour radio news another report on a promising vaccine.

So...  why don't we find 10,000 healthy young volunteers, pay them big $$$ each to take the shot and then expose them to the virus?

Why are we dragging out this nightmare with this incredibly slow "testing" process?

[Ben]

So...  why don't we find 10,000 healthy young volunteers, pay them big $$$ each to take the shot and then expose them to the virus?

Why are we dragging out this nightmare with this incredibly slow "testing" process?

You're thinking of the Lewis and Clark America, or possibly the Apollo era America. Today's America doesn't take risks like that.

[WLJ]

You're thinking of the Lewis and Clark America, or possibly the Apollo era America. Today's America doesn't take risks like that.

This is the pump them full with estrogen era

[zxcvbob]

So...  why don't we find 10,000 healthy young volunteers, pay them big $$$ each to take the shot and then expose them to the virus?

Why are we dragging out this nightmare with this incredibly slow "testing" process?

We have to drag it out until after the election, otherwise the economy might recover.

[RocketMan]

With hospitals getting anywhere from $12k to over $400k subsidies (mid-April numbers) for each beer virus patient treated, I believe there is some incentive in the health care industry to keep this crisis alive.  And it's likely an incentive to pad the case count numbers, too.  In other words, follow the money.
Ironically, hospitals in states least affected by the beer virus usually receive larger subsidies.  The $12k/patient number listed above is for New York hospitals.  West Virginia was receiving $471k per patient.

[dogmush]

Hospitals around here are hemorrhaging cash because of COVID.  The subsidies (whatever they end up being) don't even come close to covering the costs associated with shutting down large portions of the hospital and large swaths of available services to handle COVID.

Thinking that the "health care industry" is stretching this out to suck on sweet subsidy teats is tin foil level nonsense.  I promise they'd rather be back to charging folks for heart translants and ACL repairs so they could rehire the nurses and staff they've had to furlough.

[MechAg94]

I saw this, but I am not if it means much other than more cases mean mask mandates are more likely as well as just people being concerned about catching it.
https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1284175434431643648?s=19

[RocketMan]

Hospitals around here are hemorrhaging cash because of COVID.  The subsidies (whatever they end up being) don't even come close to covering the costs associated with shutting down large portions of the hospital and large swaths of available services to handle COVID.

Thinking that the "health care industry" is stretching this out to suck on sweet subsidy teats is tin foil level nonsense.  I promise they'd rather be back to charging folks for heart translants and ACL repairs so they could rehire the nurses and staff they've had to furlough.

Tinfoil hat conspiracy?  Seriously?  This is an industry well known for its shady, less than transparent billing practices.  Do you really think some hospitals would hesitate to milk federal funds, especially if they are "hemorrhaging cash" as you put it?  What's a few extra bogus COVID diagnoses if it brings in more cash from Uncle Sugar?
What you call tin foil level nonsense, I call reasonable suspicion.

[dogmush]

It makes no sense because they'd make more money to hide COVID numbers and open back up to normal business.

That's why it's tin foil, because why would they lie to prolong a situation that is costing them millions of dollars?  If they were going to lie, they would lie to make more money.  Even WITH fed money healthcare around here is losing just a ton of money.

[Ron]

None of this makes any sense.

The safest course is to not believe the official narrative because the government and healthcare officials have shown themselves to be liars.

I wish I had a competing narrative but I don't.

[Hawkmoon]

 "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity."

[Jim147]

Anyone have stats for non profit and for profit hospitals? You also have the .gov dumping cash into the hospitals.

[RocketMan]

It makes no sense because they'd make more money to hide COVID numbers and open back up to normal business.

That's why it's tin foil, because why would they lie to prolong a situation that is costing them millions of dollars?  If they were going to lie, they would lie to make more money.  Even WITH fed money healthcare around here is losing just a ton of money.

You're overthinking it, dogmush.  The fed money is right in front of them, and inflating the counts brings in more.  It is something immediate, pretty much a sure bet, versus the feds allowing them to admit non-COVID patients at some nebulous point in the future.  Plus, it's additional monies on top of what they are getting from the COVID patients' insurance.
And if they are indeed hurting for revenue, wouldn't that be an even greater incentive to pad the COVID patient numbers to make up for as much of their financial shortfall as possible?

[TommyGunn]

So...  why don't we find 10,000 healthy young volunteers, pay them big $$$ each to take the shot and then expose them to the virus?

Why are we dragging out this nightmare with this incredibly slow "testing" process?

They're in development,  not ready yet.   

A supposed SARS  vaccine once killed every lab animal it was tested on.    Trust me,  you WANT  it tested on lab critters ...